Wow... HAL must be psychic!

[voovits]

I've seen HAL make some questionable moves before, most of the time they don't work out, but tonight HAL had some sort of gut instinct, and he made a move which defies logic.

First lets set the scene
Top of the 8th inning, down 4-1. Runners on 1st and 2nd, 1 out.
Sixto Lezcano is due up. Injury has already revealed his 78 season.
Opposing team subs a new pitcher Rich Folkers
HAL counters by substituting Lezcano for... Jack Brohamer?!?
result: 3-run homerun and a tie game
fast forward to the 10th inning:
0 on 1 out. Brohamer comes up again
result: solo homerun

I win the game 5-4, Brohamer goes 2-2 with 2 homeruns and 4 RBI

Can someone explain this? I'm not complaining because it worked this time, but why was a 78 Lezcano taken out for Brohamer regardless of the year he has.
You know for every 1 dumb move like this that works, there are 50 that fail.
http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/70s/league/boxscore.html?group_id=12662&g_id=539

[franky35]

You probably need to mark Lezcano as do not PH for. As far as I can tell, HAL makes his PH decisions based purely on HR potential. I often try to use high OBP guys as PHers but HAL won't go for that.

[canauscot]

Well let us know at the end if it is 74 Folkers, 76 Brohamer and 78 Lezcano

HAL is wise

[voovits]

Actually, that's very possible. I looked at the splits, and Folkers is pitching lights out vrs righties and not as good vrs lefties.
I think you may be on to something.

I'm going to use the CD-ROM game to check the percentages for all 3 players in that season in Veteran's Stadium and see what we get.
Should be interesting.

Maybe HAL is smarter than we think.

I don't ever think of marking good players as do not PH for because I don't expect HAL to PH for them in the first place. Maybe it's time to start doing so.

[voovits]

Well, I ran the on base percentages and this is what I got. Note that this is assuming my math is actually correct.

Stadium ballpark effects vrs R and L: HR 1-11, SI 1-8

Folkers 74 vrs Brohamer 76:
Pit: HR: 4% 2b: 7.4% 1b: 1.9% BB: 9.3% OBP: 22.5
Hit: HR: 2.5% 3b: 2.3% 1b: 15% BB: 11.1% HBP: 1.9% OBP: 32.8
Total: [b:48b8b4966a]HR: 3.25%[/b:48b8b4966a] 3b: 1.15% 2b: 3.7% 1b: 8.45% BB: 10.2% HBP: .95% [b:48b8b4966a]OBP: 27.7%[/b:48b8b4966a]

Folkers 74 vrs Lezcano 78:
Pit: 2B: 3.7% 1b: 5.2% BB: 7.4% OBP: 16.3
Hit: HR: 2.9% 2b: 6.6% 1b: 15.6% BB: 22.2% OBP: 47.3
Total: [b:48b8b4966a]HR: 1.45%[/b:48b8b4966a] 2b: 5.15% 1b: 10.4% BB: 14.8% [b:48b8b4966a]OBP: 31.8%[/b:48b8b4966a]

So if those seasons turn out to be what they are, the OBP is lower, but the HR percentage is more than 2 times greater.

Even still though, on such a low percentage, for him to come in and hit 2 homeruns is amazing.

HAL probably is smarter than we think.

I will definitely post at seasons end which seasons they turn out to be assuming all 3 are still on rosters. Only 69

games to go.

[chess2899]

Voovits said:

[quote:38e0568a52]HAL probably is smarter than we think. [/quote:38e0568a52]



I have seen enough questionable substitutions by HAL in my life time. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while. :lol: