Experiment on HAL as computer manager.

[voovits]

First off, this is a long winded post with myself blabbing on like I usually do, so I'm sorry for the excessive length of the post. Those who are interested in what I'm doing though may find some of this interesting.
There was some discussion in the past as to exactly how smart HAL is in making lineups and determining pitchers. I decided to see exactly how HAL makes lineups. I have 2 80's teams that started Monday, and in preparation I did not fill out lineups, rotations or the closer/setup role, all this to see how HAL will determine what to do.
Here are some of the interesting lineup tidbits on my teams.
First team, the Control Spies. Home Ballpark Veterans Stadium. 1-7/1-9 I had the home series.
This is a 100 mil league so I have a few extra players for HAL to work with, and was certainly the most interesting of the 2 teams HAL set.
My team faced 3 right handed pitchers, yet HAL used 2 different lineups. The players used are not completely the same either. Players who played in G1 (vrs B. Welch) but not the others were G. Hoffman and Jody Davis. F. Stubbs and M. Scioscia played the other 2 games (D. Martinez and K. Forsch). HAL used and extra right handed batter against Welch, and through 14 ABs, righties hit .429, yet the lefties hit .125 through 8 ABs. It could be an indication of Welch having a lefty heavy year, but if that were the case, why did HAL bat the 3 lefties in the lineup 1-3 and put the righties 4-9? Also, McGee the CF batted 2nd in game 1, yet he was batted 9th in the other 2 games.
So here are the lineups HAL used.
Lineup G 1 vrs Welch
1. V. Hayes - 1B - L
2. W. McGee - CF - S (L)
3. A. Van Slyke - RF - L
4. J. Davis - C - R
5. K. McReynolds - LF - R
6. R. Sandberg - 2B - R
7. L. Parrish - DH - R
8. A. Trammell - SS - R
9. G. Hoffman - 3B - R

Lineup G 2 and 3 vrs Martinez and Forsch
1. V. Hayes - 1B - L
2. M. Scioscia - C - L
3. F. Stubbs - DH - L
4. A. Van Slyke - RF - L
5. K. McReynolds - LF - R
6. R. Sandberg - 2B - R
7. L. Parrish - 3B - R
8. A. Trammell - SS - R
9. W. McGee - CF - S (L)
Note the use af Von Hayes at 1B and the .75 Franklin Stubbs at DH. What you don't know from the lineups is that I also have R. Carew and J. Kruk at 1B and they were not used at all, not even as a pinch hitter. Suppose this could mean bad years from those players? I actually set a lineup vrs righties tonight (2 games on schedule) and have them both in and batting high in the order. Also unused were O. Guillen, L. Roberts and P. Sheridan. I left the lefty lineup blank, I'm curious to see if Roberts starts in place of Van Slyke.
I note that all 3 games had the 1, and 5-8 batters all the same. I feel pretty good on the seasons for Hayes (2 homers and 3 BBS already), Van Slyke, McReynolds, Sandberg and both of my catchers. I am however worried about Trammell and McGee because they were batted low in the order. One reason perhaps not to be worried is that in the CDROM game, I notice that HAL seems to generally prefer homeruns to on base. It would not surprise me to see HAL go with a low OB and moderate HR Stubbs over a high on base guy like Carew.
Tim Burke got into the game 1 time and it was to record a save, it was my only save opportunity, so it makes me think I have a good year for him, so I made him my closer over Greg Harris, my most expensive guy.
This team hit and pitched very well, .336 avg, 5 homers and 1.29 ERA 1.04 WHIP. I'm feeling good about them. Naturally after a 3-0 start.

As for the other team, the Uzo Head Rots, (80 Mil team playing in Oakland, asked for advic about them earlier) HAL made things much more complicated to figure out.
2 righties and 1 lefty faced, 3 different lineups used.

Game 1 vrs B. Blyleven
1. E. Murray - 1B S (L)
2. M. Scioscia - C L
3. V. Hayes - RF L
4. T. Wallach - 3B R
5. C. Lemon - CF R
6. D. Collins - DH S (L)
7. P. Sheridan - LF L
8. D. Conception - SS R
9. J. Remy - 2B L *M. Duncan (S) PH in 9th vrs T. Burgmeier (L)

G2 vrs V. Blue
1. D. Concepcion - SS R
2. M. Duncan - DH S (R)
3. T. Wallach - 3B R
4. A. Thornton - 1B R
5. C. Lemon - CF R
6. D. Valle - C R
7. K. McReynolds - LF R
8. D. Collins - RF S (R)
9. J. Remy - 2B L

G3 vrs O. Boyd
1. E. Murray - 1B S (L)
2. M. Scioscia - C L
3. A. Thornton - DH R
4. V. Hayes - RF L *D. Collins (S) PH in 9th vrs T. Burgmeier (L)
5. T. Wallach - 3B R
6. C. Lemon - CF R
7. K. McReynolds - LF R
8. M. Duncan - 2B S (L)
9. D. Concepcion - SS R

G. Hoffman was the only position player not to get a start, or an at bat at all for that matter.
I am concerned with the lack of E. Murray in the lineup vrs the lefty, makes me wary of his bad year, also HAL had him batting first vrs righties. That immediately raises a red flag. I'm not surprised with Hayes not playing vrs Blue, but I am surprised at him getting pinch hit for in game 3.
Concepcion batting 9th vrs the righties but 1st vrs Blue is a good sign of maybe his 78 card.
Thornton batted high in the order in games 2 and 3, but was absent for game 1.
Duncan batted high vrs the lefty, but as the DH, Remy was not taken out, yet oddly Remy did not play vrs Boyd.
To me there were a lot of oddities regarding the lineups HAL created with the Head Rots. This team went 0-3 and did not hit well at all. .170 avg 6 errors 5 runs. 3.33 ERA 1.15 WHIP are nto bad, but with that staff I expect at least that.
Speaking of staffs, HAL used the most expensive pitchers in order 1-3 and had the 4-5 guys as probable starters for the next day. Clemens/Hersheiser/Higuera for Head Rots and Ryan/Higuera/Fernandez for the Spies. So there may not be any actual managing on HALs side as far as which starters to use. He may just go down the list.

I manually set lineups for all except the Spies lefty lineup as that had not been tested yet, but as a continuation of the experiment, I may remove the default lineups if I feel it will give me more helpful information in determining player seasons. I think knowledge of how HAL manages the CDROM game will help here.
Though this is an experiment on HAL's managerial skills, I am still trying to win, so if anyone reading this is in one of my leagues, don't think I'm tanking a season or two just for an experiment.

I do think there is some method to HALs madness and the lineup decisions he makes does have some sort of significance. I think it'll be interesting to see what kind of meaning his day 1 decisions have in the long haul. I will update as I gather more information. This could be interesting.

[Rigged Splits]

I think in the first league Welch is definately the 84 card and that's why Hoffman and Jody Davis were played. There can't be any other reason for playing Hoffman over Stubbs. Carew and Kruk not playing must mean they have bad years. Drop Carew right away! :D Seriously, playing Hoffman over Carew must mean something. There are years where Hayes should play over Carew but Hoffman?

HAL loves power so that must mean Davis has a decent power year but I doubt it's 1983 because HAL would probablu use that card against all but the toughest righties.. Scioscia playing over that power means he has a good card and that's why he hits 2nd.

I've never (not that I really do understand HAL) understood how McGee gets placed. I've only had him a few times. He will almost always play because HAL was reprogrammed to play ones over hitting. Snanberg isn't 1990 because he would be hitting 3 or 4.

Van Slyke is one of his best cards because of his position in the order. His lesser cards HAL bats 6th or 7th. Trammell 8th, drop him. :D It may just mean it's not his bad year and Parrish and Ryno have more power.

Seeing where the players are moved when you face a lefty will tell you more. Will Ryno move above McReynolds? What will happen to Hayes and Van Slyke? Will Trammell and Parrish move up?

The 2nd team faced Boyd who's an opposite and Blyleven in an year where he's close to even or better against righties. That's why Duncan replaced Remy against Boyd.

You can take it to the bank that you have the opposite Remy, the killer Duncan vs. lefties, a Thornton card that destroys lefties, and you played against the opposite Blue card so an excellent Murray card was benched. :roll:

I've seen some weird leadoff hitters from HAL so it wouldn't surprise me if it was his bad card but don't count on it.

[voovits]

Some interesting info on the Spies.
Carew started and batted leadoff against the lefty starter Viola. Scioscia batted second, I really think it's his best season. I'm also excited about McReynolds having 86 or 88 as he batted third.

Lefty Lineup vrs F. Viola
1. R. Carew - 1B
2. M. Scioscia - C
3. K. McReynolds - LF
4. L. Parrish - 3B
5. F. Stubbs - DH
6. R. Sandberg - 2B
7. A. Van Slyke - RF
8. W. McGee CF
9. A. Trammell - SS

Still concerned about McGee and Trammell. They can't even pass Van Slyke in the batting order.
I could see myself parting with McGee if he does not perform (.267 so far) but Trammell (.286) is likely staying because this is a 100mil league and SS is the most shallow position in the game in my opinion, thus there will be nobody good avaialble.
Stubbs batting high vrs the lefty, and the fact that he has a homerun already makes me believe it's his 86 or hopefully 90 season.
Noting the absence of Hayes vrs the lefty makes me hope it's his 86 season.
L. Roberts was not used, I may not even bother with him and cut him if I need the cash.
Carew is going to stay in my lineup for a while, I put him in the righty lineup and he responded by hitting .462 in 13 ABs this series.
Kruk (who was also absent in the lefty lineup, but inserted by me in the righty lineup) hit a LO+INJ vrs a R so that limits him to 87 or 88. It was a 0 game injury so I'm definately going to use him to try and get an early indication to decide whether to keep or drop him.
The team is still hitting well (.325) and pitching well (2.46), and if it weren't for Sutcliffe getting bombed I may be 6-0. Higuera has been lights out and Stieb was dominating as well. I may have Stieb join Higuera in pitching every 4th day, but that greatly diminishes the value of Ryan and Fernandez.

As far as the Head Rots go, I am frustrated with them already. They were supposed to be a pitching team and they are getting lit up.
Clemens is 0-2 with a 6.36 ERA/1.50 WHIP and Stieb pitched like his bad year 8.10 ERA 1.80 WHIP in 6.2 innings. This team is off to a very ugly 1-5 start.
My Bullpen was been doing well though. WHIP is a little high, but only 1 reliever has allowed any runs at all.
Nobody is hitting except Collins and Duncan. (.204 team avg) I lead Collins off based on HALs use of him previously and he's hitting .400 through 15 ABs and he has a triple already. May have his good year. Duncan is only going to be playing vrs Lefties. Scioscia got HBP without getting hurt so that could potentially be a good sign.
It's going to be a challenge finding room for all the guys I want to get ABs. Like Thornton did not play vrs righties because I wanted to play Murray and Collins. I'm going to have to find a spot for Thornton vrs righties as I think I got a good card of his. This team however looks like it needs a lot of help, probably coming from the free agent wire. I'll give them a little more time to gel, it's way too early to start dropping guys, but I can't afford to keep up this 1-5 pace if I want to compete by the end of the season.

[DarthRuvo]

Post the links to these teams.

[voovits]

100 mil Control Spies
http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/80s/team/team_other.html?user_id=144021&stats=sim

Von Hayes is the man 5 homeruns through the first 6 games.

80 mil Uzo head Rots
http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/80s/team/team_other.html?user_id=143780&stats=sim

This 1-8 team can't hit or pitch, which is sad considering the amount of money put into pitching. Wholesale changes are in order and fast.

[Semper Gumby]

Don't be fooled by HAL's usage or the outcomes in the TSN game engine format.

In the CDrom version, you can model all the variables the game engine uses (e.g., clutch, ballpark effects) so your analytics can be supported by what functions are activated.

In TSN, some owners say they know what settings are active but I'm a betting that they don't know every one especially pitching clutch.

Even if you guess the card's season, you still can't control how he does given your opponents have a vote too. If anything, I've generated some great seasons from the worse season card (see my recent 80s league postings) and vice versus.

In my last 80s team, I narrowed 90% of my cards to one or two seasons by the 39th game using HAL / luck. On the 10% I didn't narrow, HAL refused to use the player and I drew a wrong conclusion. In every instance, I had the better season - :shock:

If anything, HAL uses a few factors in building a line-up and it doesn't follow the rule every time for every position. When stumped, HAL prefers OBP and SLG (HR mostly) for his selections. Otherwise, I find that he doesn't give a rat's arse about fielding or errors.

[voovits]

I do understand this is not an exact science, but there has to be some sort of set rules HAL uses to determine what he does. This was just an experiment to see if any patters emerged. The experiment is pretty much over though as I have lineups set by now. The lineups HAL created though have certainly factored into the lineups I put together myself. I have noticed other things about some of the moves HAL has made, but as has been pointed out to me and discussed in private by a fellow respected member, I have come to the conclusion that I should keep the remainder of this experiment to myself.


And on the topic of rules, someone posted this link a while back on one of these boards. It coves most of the rules in effect, but not all of them (like the starting pitcher clutch)

http://somonline.bluwiki.com/go/Maximum_Rules

[Semper Gumby]

[quote:66692c2522]I have noticed other things about some of the moves HAL has made, but as has been pointed out to me and discussed in private by a fellow respected member, I have come to the conclusion that I should keep the remainder of this experiment to myself. [/quote:66692c2522]

If you tried your expirement using the CD-rom, you could have saved yourself the $25 8-)

[voovits]

I guess "experiment" is a poor choice of words. I'm playing to win, not just to see what happens. I just wanted to see if it would help me in figuring out which players I have are good and which are not.

[gutter huggers]

I gave up on Hal a long time ago. What Hal does, Hal does.