Wow, we left a lot of guys on tonight in our two losses 14 and 8. Jeep just pounded Verlander and Haren (what else is new?). Heck, Jeep made 4 errors in game 2 and we *still* couldn't win! :shock:
We did manage to score in the 9th inning to the tune of 5 runs in three games including the game winner in game 3.
We've been garbage on the road: 18-27, but very good at home 30-15. I didn't * think* this team was *that* much of a park team. :?
Jet
NLD XXII
by cummings2 » Wed Jun 03, 2009 4:03 am
hmmmm... I want to peruse a little more... I had biggie a bit better than what you show, in fact I have him right up there with stoney :? but you're right jetson, very closely matched... very true to NLD fashion.
yep... intrestingly my team seems to be overperforming. I am trying a couple of new managerial settings and twists on the way I do things. It may be that... it most likey is just luck.
I'll take it! :D
C2
yep... intrestingly my team seems to be overperforming. I am trying a couple of new managerial settings and twists on the way I do things. It may be that... it most likey is just luck.
I'll take it! :D
C2
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by Jeepdriver » Wed Jun 03, 2009 9:01 am
Yes, thanks for the ratings. Unfortunately I seem to be underperforming them. :(
I'm snake-bit again, just like the last NLD. I get a great pitching performance but my bats are silent, or my bats wake up and someone throws a lemon.
It can be very frustrating, but I'm still fighting.
I'm snake-bit again, just like the last NLD. I get a great pitching performance but my bats are silent, or my bats wake up and someone throws a lemon.
It can be very frustrating, but I'm still fighting.
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by joethejet » Wed Jun 03, 2009 3:34 pm
Ok, some analysis:
AT, despite having virtually no offense (only $37 mil on the lineup) is somehow hitting .270 with a .329 OB. By my calcs, that's better than he should do rolling every single time on his card, especially v LHP. I have to think he'll come back to Earth on offense. OTOH, I don't think Hallady will go the whole season with a 4.63 ERA either. I think he's making the most out of his hits and winning close games too.
As mentioned previously, Hawk is over performing based on his one run record. His "expected" record of 38-52 is more what the ratings would expect.
Silver is also 5 games over his expected. He's gone 9-15 since his moves, but still remains in the #2 spot in overal record. The ratings would expect that his runs allowed will sink more towards the bottom, but his offense will still keep him towards the top.
Big A is struggling mightily, especially on offense. Pujols is putting up numbers, but Soto, Hill, Dunn, Granderson and Drew are not. His pitching also hasn't been as good as expected with Adams blowing 8 saves. He's gotta like what he's getting out of Guardado however! (19/20 save, 0.85 ERA) :shock: He might have dug himself too big a hole, but I would expect him to make a run towards .500 at least.
As for Jeep, you have to think that Napoli will give him a bit more power and maybe a somewhat higher OB. His biggest problem is that his O v RHP is only so-so and he just hasn't faced many LHP (only 22%) and, even though he * should* hit them pretty well, he hasn't. Still you have to think that A Rod, Rollins, and Beltran are going to raise their averages from .231/228/194 :shock: and he'll make a run a the surprising Stoney.
Speaking of the Stoneman, his rating puts him towards the top, BUT, you don't expect anyone in the NLD to have his record with the ratings being so tight. Of course, maybe he expects to hit .294 in AT&T (:?) with better slugging there than on the road. (Not likely) This is a team that is very weak v RHP, but is hitting them to the tune of .285. There my friends is the secret to his success so far. He has basically nobody under performing their numbers. He's also +4 in one runners and is 3 over his expected (neither a large margin I'll grant you).
All for now, my lunch is over.
Jet
AT, despite having virtually no offense (only $37 mil on the lineup) is somehow hitting .270 with a .329 OB. By my calcs, that's better than he should do rolling every single time on his card, especially v LHP. I have to think he'll come back to Earth on offense. OTOH, I don't think Hallady will go the whole season with a 4.63 ERA either. I think he's making the most out of his hits and winning close games too.
As mentioned previously, Hawk is over performing based on his one run record. His "expected" record of 38-52 is more what the ratings would expect.
Silver is also 5 games over his expected. He's gone 9-15 since his moves, but still remains in the #2 spot in overal record. The ratings would expect that his runs allowed will sink more towards the bottom, but his offense will still keep him towards the top.
Big A is struggling mightily, especially on offense. Pujols is putting up numbers, but Soto, Hill, Dunn, Granderson and Drew are not. His pitching also hasn't been as good as expected with Adams blowing 8 saves. He's gotta like what he's getting out of Guardado however! (19/20 save, 0.85 ERA) :shock: He might have dug himself too big a hole, but I would expect him to make a run towards .500 at least.
As for Jeep, you have to think that Napoli will give him a bit more power and maybe a somewhat higher OB. His biggest problem is that his O v RHP is only so-so and he just hasn't faced many LHP (only 22%) and, even though he * should* hit them pretty well, he hasn't. Still you have to think that A Rod, Rollins, and Beltran are going to raise their averages from .231/228/194 :shock: and he'll make a run a the surprising Stoney.
Speaking of the Stoneman, his rating puts him towards the top, BUT, you don't expect anyone in the NLD to have his record with the ratings being so tight. Of course, maybe he expects to hit .294 in AT&T (:?) with better slugging there than on the road. (Not likely) This is a team that is very weak v RHP, but is hitting them to the tune of .285. There my friends is the secret to his success so far. He has basically nobody under performing their numbers. He's also +4 in one runners and is 3 over his expected (neither a large margin I'll grant you).
All for now, my lunch is over.
Jet
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by joethejet » Wed Jun 03, 2009 7:15 pm
Some more analysis:
The Burgundy is about where the ratings would say except in Run Diff. Prolly because we've been leaving a ton of guys on base. Not really firing on all cylinders with Haren, McCann, A Ram (.201) and Bradley pretty much under and Teixeira only so-so. That's my 3-6 hitters right there.
Niners overall is about right too. Hitting a little low. Meche and Pelfrey have been awful. He's only hitting .239 so not many hitters are performing. Ludwick, Ethier, Span and Garko among them.
Let's see, who have I missed? Ah, C2 Offense is completely over performing. He should be middle of the pack, but he's at the top. Given that he's only hitting .245, 321 OB, you'd have to think there's a little luck involved. He's hit a good number of HRs, playing in a average to pitchers park, with Branyan and A Gonz 1 and 4 in the league lead. He's clearly not leaving a lot of guys on base when he's third from the bottom in OB and 2nd in runs scored. His pitching *should* be his strength, but expecting Morrow, Dice-k, Kazmir and Mock to have those ERA all season would be a bit too much to ask IMHO. The ratings say C2 will come back to Earth before too long.
All for now, guess I still need to comment on Smokey, Warrior and Big M....
Jet
The Burgundy is about where the ratings would say except in Run Diff. Prolly because we've been leaving a ton of guys on base. Not really firing on all cylinders with Haren, McCann, A Ram (.201) and Bradley pretty much under and Teixeira only so-so. That's my 3-6 hitters right there.
Niners overall is about right too. Hitting a little low. Meche and Pelfrey have been awful. He's only hitting .239 so not many hitters are performing. Ludwick, Ethier, Span and Garko among them.
Let's see, who have I missed? Ah, C2 Offense is completely over performing. He should be middle of the pack, but he's at the top. Given that he's only hitting .245, 321 OB, you'd have to think there's a little luck involved. He's hit a good number of HRs, playing in a average to pitchers park, with Branyan and A Gonz 1 and 4 in the league lead. He's clearly not leaving a lot of guys on base when he's third from the bottom in OB and 2nd in runs scored. His pitching *should* be his strength, but expecting Morrow, Dice-k, Kazmir and Mock to have those ERA all season would be a bit too much to ask IMHO. The ratings say C2 will come back to Earth before too long.
All for now, guess I still need to comment on Smokey, Warrior and Big M....
Jet
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by qksilver69 » Wed Jun 03, 2009 8:20 pm
[quote:1cf5d2d47d]He's gone 9-15 since his moves[/quote:1cf5d2d47d]
LOL. I'm sure there's a direct cause & effect between my moves & the record since then.
Sheets pre-drop: 100 IP, ERA 6+, WHIP 1.44
Buehrle in 47 IP: 3.99 ERA, WHIP 1.23
Brocail in 12 IP: 2.19 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 14 Ks
Hall & Blum have done nothing, but their predecessors had done nothing (Blum's predecessor was a jelly donut), and getting Blum has saved me from playing guys out of position due to injury.
So my assessment of my moves is that a) my performance since those changes has improved, and b) not to sound like a broken record, but I will basically have on paper the best team in the league [b:1cf5d2d47d]when healthy[/b:1cf5d2d47d] and be middle of the pack or worse when not healthy.
The logic I used here was pretty simple, but it's different from the logic that goes into the rankings Joe.
Whatever Sheet's card says his value is, his [b:1cf5d2d47d]actual[/b:1cf5d2d47d] value to my team can be judged on only 1 thing - performance. So, after 100 IP, and performance below expectations, I checked out matchups, and decided there are few teams with enough LHs to hit LHs to hurt Buerhle badly, and more than enough teams with LHs who hit RHs to hurt Sheets. Buerhle's card vs RH very similar to CC's, and CC was doing ok vs RH. So if I can get a DP-inducing SP with better matchup then I had before, and I can add a strikeout RP who will cut down on inherited runners scoring and limit HAL's use of Perez's awful card, [b:1cf5d2d47d]and[/b:1cf5d2d47d] add to my depth, why not do it?
The 9-15 record since then says nothing to me, nor should it to anyone else. Does Sheets have a better card than Buerhle overall? Of course he does. Doesn't matter a bit if the kinds of matchups he faced exposed his weakness (OB & XBH to LH batters) to other team's strengths.
LOL. I'm sure there's a direct cause & effect between my moves & the record since then.
Sheets pre-drop: 100 IP, ERA 6+, WHIP 1.44
Buehrle in 47 IP: 3.99 ERA, WHIP 1.23
Brocail in 12 IP: 2.19 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 14 Ks
Hall & Blum have done nothing, but their predecessors had done nothing (Blum's predecessor was a jelly donut), and getting Blum has saved me from playing guys out of position due to injury.
So my assessment of my moves is that a) my performance since those changes has improved, and b) not to sound like a broken record, but I will basically have on paper the best team in the league [b:1cf5d2d47d]when healthy[/b:1cf5d2d47d] and be middle of the pack or worse when not healthy.
The logic I used here was pretty simple, but it's different from the logic that goes into the rankings Joe.
Whatever Sheet's card says his value is, his [b:1cf5d2d47d]actual[/b:1cf5d2d47d] value to my team can be judged on only 1 thing - performance. So, after 100 IP, and performance below expectations, I checked out matchups, and decided there are few teams with enough LHs to hit LHs to hurt Buerhle badly, and more than enough teams with LHs who hit RHs to hurt Sheets. Buerhle's card vs RH very similar to CC's, and CC was doing ok vs RH. So if I can get a DP-inducing SP with better matchup then I had before, and I can add a strikeout RP who will cut down on inherited runners scoring and limit HAL's use of Perez's awful card, [b:1cf5d2d47d]and[/b:1cf5d2d47d] add to my depth, why not do it?
The 9-15 record since then says nothing to me, nor should it to anyone else. Does Sheets have a better card than Buerhle overall? Of course he does. Doesn't matter a bit if the kinds of matchups he faced exposed his weakness (OB & XBH to LH batters) to other team's strengths.
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by joethejet » Wed Jun 03, 2009 9:43 pm
Silver,
Just making note, that's all. Didn't do any analysis as to why. For all I know you could have been devasted by injury over the last 24 games.
As I noted earlier, Brocail will help your pen.
I'm not sure I agree that you're the best team on paper when you're healthy, but certainly your rating is better without injuries factored in. I'm not sure your D just is good enough, especially v LHP to warrant that description and and your pitching overall is pretty hit and miss. One thing you do do however is CRUSH RHP. (what else is new! :lol:)
True Buerhle's card has a similar OB to CC, but in terms of average and TBs, it's not all that close.
Anyway, we're happy to see Buerhle instead of Sheets, at least from my formulas we're better offensively against Buehrle. Although, the weaker D makes the two pitchers about equal against us. Do you agree that Sheets is better against LHB than Buehrle is v RHB?
Perhaps, when push comes to shove you can make the case that your team is about the same with Buerhle/Brocail than Perez/Sheets but I think a lot of that might hinge on how many IP you get from Brocail. My current ratings figure all of Perez' IP in his calcs.
The ratings say that your "expected W/L" is about what should be expected. ;) It will be interesting to see where it all ends up. As I said, the league is so balanced that I think any of the top 9 is good enough to make the playoffs.
Interesting take on things. The NLD is great for getting different perspectives I think.
Jet
Just making note, that's all. Didn't do any analysis as to why. For all I know you could have been devasted by injury over the last 24 games.
As I noted earlier, Brocail will help your pen.
I'm not sure I agree that you're the best team on paper when you're healthy, but certainly your rating is better without injuries factored in. I'm not sure your D just is good enough, especially v LHP to warrant that description and and your pitching overall is pretty hit and miss. One thing you do do however is CRUSH RHP. (what else is new! :lol:)
True Buerhle's card has a similar OB to CC, but in terms of average and TBs, it's not all that close.
Anyway, we're happy to see Buerhle instead of Sheets, at least from my formulas we're better offensively against Buehrle. Although, the weaker D makes the two pitchers about equal against us. Do you agree that Sheets is better against LHB than Buehrle is v RHB?
Perhaps, when push comes to shove you can make the case that your team is about the same with Buerhle/Brocail than Perez/Sheets but I think a lot of that might hinge on how many IP you get from Brocail. My current ratings figure all of Perez' IP in his calcs.
The ratings say that your "expected W/L" is about what should be expected. ;) It will be interesting to see where it all ends up. As I said, the league is so balanced that I think any of the top 9 is good enough to make the playoffs.
Interesting take on things. The NLD is great for getting different perspectives I think.
Jet
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by Ninersphan » Wed Jun 03, 2009 10:24 pm
But the bottom line is...
My team just sucks, right joe?
:wink: :D
My team just sucks, right joe?
:wink: :D
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