Defense wins championships (in strat-o-matic)

[chase1918]

what is the change in the r-squared correlation if i bring in mientkiewicz & Nunez for a 4 and 3?

You guys know your stats :shock:

[bleacher_creature]

[quote:076ca5950b="chase1918"]what is the change in the r-squared correlation if i bring in mientkiewicz & Nunez for a 4 and 3?

You guys know your stats :shock:[/quote:076ca5950b]

Don't get cute, he might be able to answer that in 5 seconds, give or take.

I haven't responded to your posts yet mac, but keep up the good work. I will keep studying your SOM math.

What I'm trying to say is, thanks for trying to learn us some crap dude. 8)

edit: I would love to know if say a 3(-1)IN CF costs you similar runs to a 2(2+2). Experience playing SOM has suggested that the plus two costs a player CRITICAL RUNS (not just runs). In a tight game, any SINGLE-runner on 2nd (no fielder indicated), or DOUBLE-runner on 1st, puts the game in th hands of your CF.

[blueiguana]

This is very helpful. Of course, the lower ranged player might make up some or all of this difference with his bat, but this gives you some sense of how much better offense you need to play, say a 3 over a 1. In some places it is more than I thought, in others less, but it is nice to have some numbers to make the guess.

[bleacher_creature]

Bump - to help with the Kent at 2B question.

According to mcabell's work here, a 3 at 2B costs you 13 runs per year (compared to a "2"). Kent obviously is going to more than make up for that with his bat.

In addition, I assume this test was run without a def replacement being brought in each time you have a lead in the 8th, which should cut that 13 runs down to about 10 or 11 in a 90 win season.

Summary:

Kent is a HUGE bargain.

edit: get A. Everett to play SS, and you just got your 13 runs back.

[blueiguana]

But if you get Everett to play short, you give back the runs you gain with Kent's bat. :)

The key is that defense can be more or less commoditized, as hitting can be, and that you can take it into account when selecting among players.

[bleacher_creature]

[quote:a679c19c7e]But if you get Everett to play short, you give back the runs you gain with Kent's bat. [/quote:a679c19c7e]

I don't think this is all that true if he bats 9th behind a good OB hitter in te 8 hole, set on "bunt more".

[MtheB]

weall i niver maid eet passt fifth grade, yu guyze r way over my haid.
all i'se knowse ees dees.
da whole idear is to score more runs dan de udder team does when de last out is scarred.
now ya kin do dat with da louisvilles, ya can do dat with da cowskins, eet works eider way or eet works togither.
i have won rings wit iron fists all around and won wit jello woodies in der hands.
yu can throw dem numbers at me all dai long, it dont matter, fer every theory you gots, dar is someone wu can beat it, dats da thing.
defense, smeefence.
i think much mor impertint, is pickin da rite team fer yer staydeeum.
dats da mosrt impertint teeket in mai book.