Top 10 starting pitchers for next year (through Sep. 29)

[maligned]

If you do the following, you can use current season data (through Aug. 14) to make a rough guess of the top pitchers for next year:

1. Use Component ERA or something similar (takes the raw data of a pitcher and computes what his ERA should be)
2. Adjust this based on the pitcher's home stadium "park factor"
3. Adjust this based on the pitcher's team's park-independent defensive efficiency
4. Make a final adjustment based on the league of the pitcher

Here are the top 10 (all project to be * starters):
1. Dan Haren
2. Tim Lincecum
3. Zack Greinke
4. Josh Johnson
5. Josh Beckett
6. Javier Vazquez
7. Ubaldo Jimenez
8. Jarrod Washburn
9. Roy Halladay
10. Justin Verlander

I estimate that Chris Carpenter as a non*-starter would be very near Halladay/Verlander value, but would be just outside the top 10.

I realize component ERA isn't a perfect formula, but it offers a starting point for tinkering and guessing. You could also use EqERA to make projections.

[ndowdy]

Felix Hernandez, he gets no love from you?

[maligned]

It's not about love--I just crunched the numbers. :)

Felix Hernandez and Matt Cain, if the season were to end today, would have Strat cards that are surprisingly weaker than their Wins and ERA would make us believe them to be. Both have had ERA results that don't match their raw data.
Hernandez' ERA should be about 0.35 higher than it is based on his raw data. Couple this with the fact that his pitchers' card will be adjusted negatively since he plays in a pitcher friendly park AND has a pitcher friendly defense behind him, and the result will be a little less 'lights out' than some might expect.

[Free Radicals]

I'd take Buerhle over 3 or 4 of those guys hands down. Mark is having a very good year, era or not. Eats tons of innings . Usually goes 7-8. ERA under 4.00 and a LHSP. What more could you ask for! :wink:

[kimkrichbaum2]

The assumption here is that ERA has a strong relationship to the quality of the card. WHIP, HR/inning, and hits/inning are more relevant stats. I think Piniero may make the top 10 based on those stats, and Jiminez, may be out. Buehrle has problems with HR allowed.

[LMBombers]

There is usually some pitcher that pitches around 75 IP that could also make the top 10.

[maligned]

Litangel,
To clarify, I'm not considering ERA at all. I'm considering Component ERA (what the ERA should be based on raw data; it's a stat designed to measure the true quality of a pitcher's results).
If you take raw data (WHIP, H/inn, HR/inn, etc.) with no stadium/defense adjustments as of 8/14 when I calculated this, Pineiro's component ERA is 2.76 and Jimenez was 3.04. The problem for Pineiro is that he plays in the #3 most pitcher friendly stadium this year while Jimenez pitches in the #30 most friendly (worst in the MLB) stadium. If you adjust the two players' expected performance for an average stadium and average defense behind them, Jimenez has the better results. It will be interesting to see what Hal does with Pineiro's card. My projections are obviously just speculation and estimates.

Free Radicals,
Obviously, if you were starting your own real baseball team, you may have your preferences one way or another. I'm just spitting out stats and making a guess as to what Strat values might suggest. Through 8/14, I have Buehrle in the top 25 starting pitchers, but a ways off the pace for the top 10.

[kimkrichbaum2]

Given, the data you are using, this is very interesting to me. Thanks for explaining it in more detail. I would love to see the whole top 25 if you are willing to print it. It will help give me a feel for by Keeper pitching staff for 2009.

[maligned]

11. Chris Carpenter (no *)
12. CC Sabathia
13. Edwin Jackson
14. Tommy Hunter (no *)
15. Joel Pineiro
16. Jason Marquis
17. Matt Cain
18. Felix Hernandez
19. Gavin Floyd
20. Josh Outman (no *)
21. Johan Santana
22. J.A. Happ (no *)
23. Mark Buehrle
24. Scott Baker (no *)
25. Clayton Kershaw (no *)

In my mind, Gavin Floyd and Scott Baker were big surprises...their real-life ERA is far higher than their Component ERA, plus they play in hitter-friendly parks. Baker's real ERA is 4.54, while his defense- and park-free Component ERA is 3.01.
The most surprising omissions would probably be Cliff Lee and Adam Wainwright. Both have very weak Component ERAs compared to real-life results, and both play (or played, in Lee's case) in very pitcher-friendly parks. I have them ranked #32 and #38.
Kershaw has an outside shot at being a *-starter. This would elevate him into the top 15 at the moment.

[maligned]

Through August 20:

1. Dan Haren
2. Tim Lincecum
3. Zack Greinke
4. Josh Johnson
5. Javier Vazquez
6. Ubaldo Jimenez
7. Josh Beckett
8. Justin Verlander
9. Chris Carpenter (no *)
10. CC Sabathia
11. Jarrod Washburn
12. Roy Halladay
13. Joel Pineiro
14. Matt Cain
15. Felix Hernandez
16. Tommy Hunter (no *)
17. Jason Marquis
18. Edwin Jackson
19. Jon Lester
20. Gavin Floyd
21. Cliff Lee
22. Josh Outman (no *)
23. J.A. Happ (no *)
24. Jered Weaver
25. Erik Bedard (no *)