Anyone use the "Pythagorean Theory" in analysis?

[XerXes]

Read about it in Bill James's book. Basically, taking Runs scored squared divided by runs allowed squared gives you the ratio of wins/losses. Take the number of games you've played divided that by the ratio above, and get the number of losses you should have. If you're beating this number by a good amount, it means your managment has led to more win than the players alone, less than that means you're not using the players correctly. Any validity to this?

[edbazo]

Actually, unless you are consistently over/under the projection for a very long period of time, I believe all James attributed the difference to was luck. In fact, one of his primary indicators of how a team could be expected to do next season was the difference between a teams record and expected record (given the pythagorean projection). A team that won more games than expected was just lucky... and could be expected to come back to earth the following year.

[sschu]

Yes, it is a good "indicator" of the "luck" factor. For underperforming teams it can give some feedback. I did it for all my teams and it was near 0, except the factor was 1.82.

Not sure the idea is linear. It would seem for bomber teams where there are a lot of blowouts and many runs scored and for extreme smallball teams with lots of one run games, the formula would be less reliable in the short run.

FWIIW, sschu

[Valen]

[quote:8c507de408]Not sure the idea is linear. It would seem for bomber teams where there are a lot of blowouts and many runs scored and for extreme smallball teams with lots of one run games, the formula would be less reliable in the short run.[/quote:8c507de408]
What you suspect is true and in recent readings James has altered the formula some. I also believe that pitching staff makeup can throw a kink in the formula. I just finished a league where the expected win leader finished with the 6th most wins and missed the playoffs entirely.

I have also believe it is less accurate a predictor for pitching rich teams, especially those with strong bullpens, throw a monkey wrench in to the formula.

I now duck for cover anticipating the wrath of Bill James followers. :lol:

[Crabby Appleton]

Hey, I love that formula! Years ago in face-to-face leagues, we called this 'b*tch material'. The comeback taunt "Yeah, you may have beat me....but I had the better Pythagorean" would surely put some deserving recipient in his place.

I just had a team finish with 83 wins and a 90 win Pythagorean. I didn't make the playoffs but in some odd way, it makes me feel better.

-Crabby

[ADRIANGABRIEL]

Here's an [url=http://www.diamonddope.com/pythagorean.cfm?tab=pythagorean]easy way to figure out your Pythagorean record[/url].

Always be wary of a team that's beneath you in the standings, but with a record well below their Pythagorean. More often than not, they [i:d9bcb6ec86]will[/i:d9bcb6ec86] go on a run.