Super Hal and Fatigue - The Mystery Continues

[coyote303]

Someone posted this link in a previous post that explains things.

http://somonline.bluwiki.com/go/Pitch_Count_Fatigue

[apolivka]

Ok "tony",

I ran a quick study using about 50 games:

Here are all the rolls with F0-F8:

Home Team pitcher's card rolls 57
Home Team batter's card rolls 66
Away Team pitcher's card rolls 81
Away Team batter's card rolls 95
Rolls when pitcher is tired 299

F0-F5

Home Team pitcher's card rolls 31
Home Team batter's card rolls 40
Away Team pitcher's card rolls 28
Away Team batter's card rolls 55
Rolls when pitcher is tired 154

F0-F1

Home Team pitcher's card rolls 14
Home Team batter's card rolls 25
Away Team pitcher's card rolls 12
Away Team batter's card rolls 35
Rolls when pitcher is tired 86

So, with about 300 rolls, I think it is statistically significant that it show that pitcher fatigue does effect the pitchers/hitters card rolls.

With F0-F5 you are much more likely to roll off the batters card. Once you get into the F0/F1 range, you are about twice as likely to hit on the batter's card!

FYI, being a computer nerd, I wrote a program to do this :) I couldn't imagine actually digging through the box scores!

It is a pretty interesting issue. I assume based on previous information that the @results on the pitcher's cards are turning into hits as well, based on a sliding scale too. So, when you have an F0, twice as many rolls will land on the hitter's card AND your pitcher will be less effective off his own card. So, I would think that, under most circumstances with a decent hitter at the plate, just about any reliever is better than, say, Bob Gibson in such a state.

[The Biomechanical Man]

I wish Bernie would just tell us what is happening. I'm sure he must have learned something when he coded bullpen version2.

It is very helpful that the F-value is now shown on the boxscores. However, when a pitcher fatigues we don't know if:[list:d78f033cb8]
[*:d78f033cb8]the chance of @ becoming singles gradually increases (as stated in the [url=http://somonline.bluwiki.com/go/Pitch_Count_Fatigue]Rules[/url] on the online game)
[*:d78f033cb8]the chance of landing on a pitcher's "bad column" gradually increases (suggested by Marcus Wilby [url=http://forums.sportingnews.com/viewtopic.php?t=563603]here[/url])
[*:d78f033cb8]the chance of landing on the hitter's card gradually increases (suggested in this current thread)
[*:d78f033cb8]some combination of the above
[*:d78f033cb8]something totally else happens[/list:u:d78f033cb8]

[AeroDave10]

[quote:c4310e9a09="The Biomechanical Man"]
It is very helpful that the F-value is now shown on the boxscores. However, when a pitcher fatigues we don't know if:[list]
[*]the chance of @ becoming singles gradually increases (as stated in the [url=http://somonline.bluwiki.com/go/Pitch_Count_Fatigue]Rules[/url] on the online game)
[/quote:c4310e9a09]

Or it's possible that they become worse than singles (i.e. 2B, 3B, or HR), as suggested by several others.

[MARCPELLETIER]

My understanding of Bernie's post is that the old rule of @ turning into single** is not in effect anymore. Another rule applies.

My hypothesis is that, when rolling a @K, there is a probability (perhaps 10% for F8; close to 100% for F0), that a Re-roll of dice occur strickly on the "bad results" of the actual pitcher-batter confrontation.In layman words, you roll the dice up until you get the result of a walk, single, homerun, whatever that is negative for the pitcher.

Of course, because most hits/walks are found on the batter's card, and because hits/walks tend to be concrated in one bad column of a pitcher, the end result of this new rule is an increase of readings on the offensive card and in the pitcher's bad column as the F decreases.

As the pitcher continues to get fatigued beyond F0, the @K-->hit rule begins to spread across all outs found on the pitcher's card.

[BlackieMisey1]

Marcus,

Under your hypothesis, a pitcher should never be able to get anyone out when at F0. Have you tested that hypothesis?

[coyote303]

[quote:b3a984b6df="BlackieMisey"]Marcus,

Under your hypothesis, a pitcher should never be able to get anyone out when at F0. Have you tested that hypothesis?[/quote:b3a984b6df]

It might be tough to do because a pitcher can be worse than F0, but will only show up as F0.

[The Biomechanical Man]

[quote:9b4b33e974="marcus wilby"]My understanding of Bernie's post is that the old rule of @ turning into single** is not in effect anymore. Another rule applies.[/quote:9b4b33e974]
Marc, where is that post?

All I know is that when I click on "help with these settings" on the Pitcher Prefs page, I get a wiki page that says,"For each of your pitchers, you can indicate that you don't want him taken out for another reliever unless he has reached a certain Pitch Count Fatigue level." Then, when you click on "Pitch Count Fatigue", it goes to another page that says, "[color=blue:9b4b33e974]PCF affects readings on pitcher cards preceded by an "@", but it doesn't automatically turn them all into SINGLE**. Instead, it is a more gradual effect, and the variety of the resulting penalties is greater.[/color:9b4b33e974]" I know this is a lot of clicks, but it is what the game takes me to. If this is not right, then the game shouldn't take us to that explanation.