The secret to success

[RICHARDMILTER]

ugrant said:[quote:bf605e99f7]"Gee, I hate being right all the time..." - Jeff Goldblum in "Jurassic Park." My first post mentioned this issue got heated and it would appear it's headed that way again, so I'll try to tone it down without resorting to mentioning something other than the issue itself.

First, my apologies to Rmilter if he took my comment personally, it wasn't meant that way although I guess it could be taken that way. If you'd like to "come on with it" (your words), I'd be glad to meet you in a 69 League since that's all I play these days.

Second, all the math everyone is quoting is correct. But it's not math that's the issue, it's odds. Take it however you wish: disregard it, make fun of it, take the focus off the issue and slam those that don't agree with you some more, or - gads! - think about it.

With all due respect, [/quote:bf605e99f7]


Pardon me. I was not offended. However, I was challenged (first) when someone mentioned that they"Would love to be in my division" seeing as how I understand the "Odds" the way they are. And by the way, odds are math, plain and simple. There are no hard feelings. But when it comes to math, or "Odds", there is right and wrong.
Also, I suppose I am a bit vain about my winning percentage in what millions would call a silly game. But I have loved Strat my whole life, it is one of my favorite hobbies, and there are plenty of worse hobbies. I wish everyone great enjoyment in these leagues,...........no matter what your superstitions or beliefs.

[ugrant]

Voovits - I have never challenged any of the math here, and your 83.3% X 20% = 16.666 point is well taken.

That's for the entirety of the roll, however, and the odds are still highly in favor of not duplicating the same column, which is the point. Put it this way, bottom of the ninth, two outs and a "lights out" pitcher is pitching. The batter gets on base with a 1 column roll. The next batter is also a 1 column hitter. Assuming there are no ways to get on base other than the 1 column, there is only a 16.7% chance the game will continue and a 83.3% chance the game is over. If the next batter is a 2 or 3 column hitter, there is a 16.7% chance the game is over and an 83.3% chance another column will be rolled, providing a 20% chance the game continues. The difference is slight, but I'll take it, especially over the course of a season.

TomSiebert has a point as well, but it's better explained in the movie "21" when the professor actor asks the Monty Hall question of his prospective blackjack player.

[coyote303]

[quote:397c5b32f9="ugrant"]That's for the entirety of the roll, however, and the odds are still highly in favor of not duplicating the same column, which is the point. Put it this way, bottom of the ninth, two outs and a "lights out" pitcher is pitching. The batter gets on base with a 1 column roll. The next batter is also a 1 column hitter. Assuming there are no ways to get on base other than the 1 column, there is only a 16.7% chance the game will continue and a 83.3% chance the game is over. If the next batter is a 2 or 3 column hitter, there is a 16.7% chance the game is over and an 83.3% chance another column will be rolled, providing a 20% chance the game continues. The difference is slight, but I'll take it, especially over the course of a season.[/quote:397c5b32f9]

I once read that if you presented somebody a perfect, irrefutable argument that you could convince them--but it would take five years before they would accept it.

What I don't understand though is your own example disproves your point. There is no slight difference--the odds are the same for either hitter.

But hey, I can't expect you to change your mind for another 4 years and 51 weeks! :lol:

[Rally Sally]

No wonder I do so well at this game! My secret strategy? Hitters with [b:5a58d3c78f]two[/b:5a58d3c78f] good hitting columns, and pitchers with [b:5a58d3c78f]no[/b:5a58d3c78f] good hitting columns!

[ugrant]

Coyote, sleep tight in your belief of the irrefutability of your argument. I'll leave it at that and get a good sleep myself.

[Jerlins]

I'm not letting rmilter steal all the fun and all the prize money. I'm joining that league as well!!! This argument reminds me of the casino players and their "can't lose" philosophies of placing your money on black after red has come up 9 times in a row. After a few hours, they'll retire to their plush rooms that they and their philosophy helped build.

The odds of the roll NOT landing on 1 after a 1 has been rolled are exactly the same as the odds NOT landing on the 2 through 6 on the next roll.

Great idea for a theme league though. Statisticians/Superstitions league :wink:

[RICHARDMILTER]

If you flip a coin 9 times and 9 times in a row it comes up heads, what are the independent odds that the 10th time you flip the coin it will come up heads? 50%. This is a similar principle to the one we have been debating.


Also, the scene in the movie,"21" someone mentioned was a very misleading scene. It had much less to do with odds, than it did game show theatrics.

[apolivka]

My philosophy is never to play a Cub, or someone who has ever been a Cub. The more Cubs or ex-Cubs in your lineup, the LESS likely it for you to make the post season.

I can offer almost countless links to teams with Cubs on them who DIDN'T make the playoffs as proof of my argument. No matter what anyone says, this proves that I am right. Joe Gargiola even agrees with me on this point.

Now, if you played an all Cubs team with most of their hits in the 1 column, just think how much they would suck...

[RICHARDMILTER]

I agree with the above post. However, if you fielded a team of all ex-Cleveland Indians with hits in the magic three column, look out. That team could be dangerous.

[ugrant]

Ok, for those of you interested in the subject matter (if there are any) rather than worrying about whether or not your Wheaties are being pissed in, here's the clip from "21." Instead of doors, think columns and think of the 83.3% I've repeatedly mentioned.

Theatrical? The presentation is, but it's a movie. Listen to the discussion and decide for yourself.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=14KMJyf5N7E