by Mean Dean » Thu Oct 22, 2009 11:08 am
It might help to think in terms of percentages. Let's take just the first part of the reading, when we're dealing with the two six-sided dice. [url=http://boardgames.about.com/od/dicegames/a/probabilities.htm]Here[/url] is a page that shows you the relevant probabilities. Again:
Reyes *2-5,11,12/-
Cantu 5/-
This means Reyes gets a lead on a roll of 2, 3, 4, 5, 11 or 12. That adds up to a 36% chance of a lead.
Cantu gets a lead on a 5. That's an 11% chance.
Since neither has a number after the slash, neither of them has a roll on which they're automatically caught stealing. That is different than a pickoff (see below.)
Okay, now the second part of the reading, which deals with the 20-sided dice. You convert these into percentages by simply multiplying by 5. 6 = 30% chance, 19 = 95% chance, etc.
Reyes (19-15)
Cantu (15-6)
So, if Reyes has the lead, he begins with a (19 * 5%) = 95% chance to steal 2nd. The pitcher's hold and catcher's arm are then added into this. For instance, if the pitcher has a -1 hold and the catcher has a -2 arm, then you'd subtract their combined total, 15%, from the chance. The combined pitcher's hold and catcher's arm can't add up to more than +25% or -25%. Then 10% is subtracted if the runner is held on base (which, being Jose Reyes, he pretty much always will be). The final percentage can't be lower than 5%. If the runner is being held on, it also can't be higher than 95%.
If Reyes doesn't have the lead, he begins with a (15 * 5%) = 75% chance to steal 2nd. Again, add in pitcher's hold/catcher's arm with a limit of +/- 25%. This time, if he's held on, subtract 20%.
Stealing 3rd works the same way as stealing 2nd without the lead. If you [i:2115740444]don't[/i:2115740444] have the lead, you can't steal 3rd at all.
Stealing home is a straight 45% off the second steal number. If the runner is being held (this is rare, even for Jose Reyes), take off the additional 20%. Again, you must get the lead in order to attempt it.
Same calculation for Cantu ;) The only difference is, because Reyes has a *, if he is not held on base, he will always get the lead. Cantu, lacking the *, needs to roll for the lead even if he is not held on.
Finally, I said I'd also explain pickoffs. Every time you go for the lead, there is a 5% chance of a potential pickoff. Whether the pickoff occurs depends on the runner's second steal number. So, Reyes has a 75% chance to be safe on the potential pickoff. Cantu only has a 30% chance.
Last edited by
Mean Dean on Fri Oct 23, 2009 9:10 am, edited 1 time in total.