OK, so far, so good. Now, what does this mean?
[quote:c01e150999="DeanTSC"]Then 10% is subtracted if the runner is held on base (which, being Jose Reyes, he pretty much always will be).[/quote:c01e150999]
What determines if the runner is held on base?
I know I SHOULD know this, but . . .
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by tcochran » Thu Oct 22, 2009 11:39 am
And then also, how about usage?
[quote:512b674875="tcochran"]And then finally, as a practical matter, how do we use all of this information? Yes, the detail is interesting, but aside from trying to draft Reyes instead of J.J. Hardy, how do we use it? For the online game, what do the dice roll numbers tell us that the basic "A" vs. "E" info does not?
For example, we would set Reyes to "Steal more" and Hardy to "Don't steal." What else would we do?
And when would we set the team's base stealing tendencies to "Very Aggressive" vs. "Normal?"[/quote:512b674875]
[quote:512b674875="tcochran"]And then finally, as a practical matter, how do we use all of this information? Yes, the detail is interesting, but aside from trying to draft Reyes instead of J.J. Hardy, how do we use it? For the online game, what do the dice roll numbers tell us that the basic "A" vs. "E" info does not?
For example, we would set Reyes to "Steal more" and Hardy to "Don't steal." What else would we do?
And when would we set the team's base stealing tendencies to "Very Aggressive" vs. "Normal?"[/quote:512b674875]
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by Mean Dean » Thu Oct 22, 2009 1:29 pm
[quote:b127fb4652="tcochran"]What determines if the runner is held on base?[/quote:b127fb4652]The smartass answer would either be "whether it makes sense to hold him on", or simply "the computer manager." As you can imagine, there is a defensive penalty for holding the runner on. (Specifically, the range of the fielders responsible for holding is worsened by 1 rating, and if their fielding ability is tested by an "X-roll", there is 20% more chance of a hit.) So, the defensive manager is balancing that cost vs. the higher chance of allowing the SB if he doesn't hold.
To make a long story short, in my experience with the computer game, the computer is quite liberal about holding runners on. It will not only hold on anyone with a *, but it will also hold anyone who would have a high success chance given the lead... even if they don't have a * and their chance of actually getting the lead is quite small, for example, 2/- (20-6).
"Steal more" vs. "don't steal": My decisions on this hinge on the runner's lead chance, automatic CS chance, and second steal number. I just mentioned a hypothetical runner who is 2/- (20-6). This runner has a 3% chance (see dice probability page above) to get the lead... but a 3.5% chance (5% chance of the possible pickoff, times 70% chance that it happens) to be picked off. So, he's more likely to get picked off than he is to get a lead... not a good gamble. Therefore, you set such a player to "don't steal." Similarly, if the player does have automatic CS chances, that can make it a bad idea to steal in a big hurry.
Reyes, on the other hand, is certainly a guy you want to set to steal more. You have nothing to lose by doing so, since he gets the lead often, has zero chance of an automatic CS, and will rarely be picked off because his second steal number is so good.
Basestealing tendencies: I don't think there is necessarily any logic to saying "I have a slow team, I'll be conservative" or "I have a fast team, I'll be aggressive." Regardless of the overall speed of your team, you still want people to steal at a certain percentage, and not steal below that. I generally set it aggressive (if I had a team that grounded into few DP, I might set it normal), and let the individual player settings do most of the work. You could set it at normal or conservative if you like; that will give you fewer attempts, at a higher success rate (and probably more GIDP -- that's the part I don't like.) I would not go to either extreme, very aggressive or very conservative.
To make a long story short, in my experience with the computer game, the computer is quite liberal about holding runners on. It will not only hold on anyone with a *, but it will also hold anyone who would have a high success chance given the lead... even if they don't have a * and their chance of actually getting the lead is quite small, for example, 2/- (20-6).
"Steal more" vs. "don't steal": My decisions on this hinge on the runner's lead chance, automatic CS chance, and second steal number. I just mentioned a hypothetical runner who is 2/- (20-6). This runner has a 3% chance (see dice probability page above) to get the lead... but a 3.5% chance (5% chance of the possible pickoff, times 70% chance that it happens) to be picked off. So, he's more likely to get picked off than he is to get a lead... not a good gamble. Therefore, you set such a player to "don't steal." Similarly, if the player does have automatic CS chances, that can make it a bad idea to steal in a big hurry.
Reyes, on the other hand, is certainly a guy you want to set to steal more. You have nothing to lose by doing so, since he gets the lead often, has zero chance of an automatic CS, and will rarely be picked off because his second steal number is so good.
Basestealing tendencies: I don't think there is necessarily any logic to saying "I have a slow team, I'll be conservative" or "I have a fast team, I'll be aggressive." Regardless of the overall speed of your team, you still want people to steal at a certain percentage, and not steal below that. I generally set it aggressive (if I had a team that grounded into few DP, I might set it normal), and let the individual player settings do most of the work. You could set it at normal or conservative if you like; that will give you fewer attempts, at a higher success rate (and probably more GIDP -- that's the part I don't like.) I would not go to either extreme, very aggressive or very conservative.
Last edited by Mean Dean on Thu Oct 22, 2009 6:18 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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by the splinter » Thu Oct 22, 2009 2:51 pm
Dean is where questions go to be answered!!!!
Good stuff sir!
How about...the Dean of SOM Rules and Probability
Good stuff sir!
How about...the Dean of SOM Rules and Probability
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by MARCPELLETIER » Thu Oct 22, 2009 4:34 pm
By default, if I remember correctly, the game engine holds runners with at least 50% success rate and with 10% chance of having the lead.
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by MARCPELLETIER » Thu Oct 22, 2009 4:35 pm
e0: Expect 0 errors for 162 games
Actually, it's for 144 games if I remember correctly.
Actually, it's for 144 games if I remember correctly.
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by tcochran » Thu Oct 22, 2009 4:47 pm
Per the "How to read" doc again:
"Defensive error rating (the "e" and the number following the range rating) -- Predicts how many errors that player would make at that position if he were to play 162 games there (a "0" is the best)."
Hey Marcus, the fielding info is pretty straight-forward. I think I understand that okay.
Big thanks to the folks posting here about the stealing info, however -- those concepts are about as clear as mud!
"Defensive error rating (the "e" and the number following the range rating) -- Predicts how many errors that player would make at that position if he were to play 162 games there (a "0" is the best)."
Hey Marcus, the fielding info is pretty straight-forward. I think I understand that okay.
Big thanks to the folks posting here about the stealing info, however -- those concepts are about as clear as mud!
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by voovits » Thu Oct 22, 2009 8:34 pm
An E0 is very misleading for outfielders, catchers and maybe pitchers too.
The E0 accounts for rolls on the X-chart, but does not account for throwing errors by outfielders and catchers, and I'm pretty sure it does not account for wild pitches or errant pickoff throws for pitchers.
The E0 accounts for rolls on the X-chart, but does not account for throwing errors by outfielders and catchers, and I'm pretty sure it does not account for wild pitches or errant pickoff throws for pitchers.
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