Secret Formula: The Theory in Action

[pcbaseballsims]

Kudos! Well done JPav!

I opined on your 2009 Secret Formula & included a link to it on my BLOG:

sportingnews.com/blog/MlbInfoCzar

Hope you'll stop by for a look see.

Also comment on SOM's new website, the very popular 1999 set, and more :!:

[geekor]

The only issue I see is way too many platoons. HAL handles platoons much too poorly for my tastes, especially when you have so many going on!

[J-Pav]

[b:3b49c3b0c4]geekor[/b:3b49c3b0c4]:

I normally use two platoons, but three works on this team because of the high injury players.

Some managers like nine 600+ PA players. I feel like I get more value out of Pagan/Guillen-Pierre platoon. Pagan will produce when he's healthy. When he's out, Pierre is serviceable against RHP. Guillen can sub in defensively. Pierre also pinch runs. I cover a lot of things with a small amount of money.

Although knocking out a LH SP early can hurt the lineup productivity, you usually have a lead already and have three solid pinch hitters for the RH RPs to boot.

This probably sounds weird, but I like giving HAL the flexibility to do different things. Yes, he disappoints - but then he also gets Pierre a walk-off steal of home to win a game. Of course, Pierre was on the opponent's team when that happened, but you see the point.

[b:3b49c3b0c4]MlbInfoCzar:[/b:3b49c3b0c4]

Thx, I will check it out -

:D

[apolivka]

I play either two or three platoons almost all the time. I too agree that the extra flexibility and pinch hitting opportunities more than make up for HAL screwups. I often play "injury platoons" as well as the normal lefty/righty type platoons. I honestly think that building successful platoons can make a 5-10 win advantage vs. always picking 600 PA guys. It can also make your autodraft more successful too since you may be picking some less popular guys.

As for your test team. I've never seen Jimmy Johnson do well, and I almost never want a left handed closer on my team as my sole closer. (even at PNC) I'm not sure what it is with Johnson, but a non-K relief pitcher that's going to rack up a ton of meaningful innings just never seems to work for me. The scenario I always see is him coming in with runners on and letting them advance and score even with outs. A strikeout pitcher is just much more valuable there.

[AeroDave10]

Bump for J-Pav

+


It's harder for people to follow and believe in your Secret Formula when the team is losing. It's like going to a basketball camp and listening to the coach tell you the mechanics of a jump shot, and then he bricks one during the demonstration.


J-Pav,

What do you think are the reasons behind this team's struggles?

[J-Pav]

Lots of things, but mostly not hitting and not pitching.

I don't know, bad dice? I'm not selling anything, so I'm not really looking to create followers. Last year's team went to the Finals, but I don't think that team really changed the way GMs go about their teams either.

I could post all 20 Champs teams and you would see the similarities just like I laid them out here. So far, I'm putting up bricks, but that can change too. An interesting exercise I found is to look at your schedules from any Champs team, and see if you can pinpoint the worst 20 game skid. I was surprised to find that on virtually all of my Champs teams, there was a stretch were I lost 15 of 20. On my last team, it was right out of the gate. On most, it's buried in the middle where you hardly notice.

This team is still struggling. Maybe they'll snap out of it, maybe not. A good portion of teams just don't work out despite the best laid plans.

Here's a Three Stud Starter team that won a ring:

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/team/team_other.html?user_id=218013

Here's one that missed the playoffs completely:

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/team/team_other.html?user_id=216981

Without the benefit of hindsight, would anyone ever know the difference?

[keyzick]

I agree J-Pav. I have a team going right now that I pretty much built right in line with my most succesful teams, and 100+ games into the season, it's turning out to be my worse team of the set!

I chalk it up to sometimes HAL can be a fickle friend or foe.

[boyer14]

This is one of those points in time where the experienced manager satisfied with his team just has to sit tight and hope the dice go their way for the final 2/3 of the season. Too often I see folks start bailing out and changing their roster with no plan of improvement - weakening their chances as a result. This team is struggling on the road, mainly the pitching, and likely due to chance. When you build a team best suited to your home ballpark you sometimes suffer on the road. You just hope the road record is not too bad and that you can compensate with even better work at home (and that the other divisional teams don't run away from you in the standings before things straighten out).

[durantjerry]

I really dislike two of your highest paid players in your park. I got stuck with Longoria in PNC in a $60 league and he was mediocre. He is RH, pretty #HR dependent and gets injured more often. I think it is about as poor a selection as you could make based on my experience with him. Victorino is good defensively and can steal, but he does not get on base at a good rate and is the opposite type of switch hitter you want in your park(W vs RHP's, N and #HR vs LHP's). This also applies to Furcal, although he will still be good. Of course, your selections are dictated by who was available. I am in that league and have Ryan Sweeney in CF in PNC and would likely go with Victorino over him, as I also missed Upton in the draft. I would cut Longoria, as I don't see him being successful in your park. Also not a big O Perez fan.

[J-Pav]

Offense isn't really this team's problem, it's pitching and specifically it's pitching on the road. I'm scoring just under five runs per game both home and away, with a home ERA of 3.64 (but only a 13-14 record to show for it) and a road ERA of 5.83 (10-17 record) where I'm just getting killed.

28 errors (high) have led to 22 unearned runs (also high). I could give example after example of these pitchers doing well (especially Perez, who has been a bargain for not only me but for several other managers) but none of that really matters.

I'm gonna just let it play out and see if I can catch a hot streak. Despite the horrible performance to date, I'm not beyond getting back in it over the second two thirds of the season, a gracious and merciful HAL permitting.