Here's another Oliver Perez, Longoria, Victorino team in a pitcher's park (#1 in offense, #3 in pitching) that's doing okay so far:
http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/team/team_other.html?user_id=231189
Maybe I can get some of this mojo to rub off on my floundering Formula team!
:D
Secret Formula: The Theory in Action
by MARCPELLETIER » Sat Nov 21, 2009 12:02 am
A few notes.
We should always refrain from judging the success (or lack of) of a team after a third season. I wouldn't be surprised if J-Pav finishes first, considering that his division seems (after a first quick glance) relatively weak.
This said, usage drives a lot the success of a team or not. If you compare this Dream Team to the one posted in j-pav's last post (the AT&T team), there are striking difference:
-Perez in the AT&T team faced 40% of lefty hitters. Same for Maholm (5L) and LEster (5L). As a result, you're getting more than what you paid for with these three players. In the current Dream Team, Perez faces 29% of lhp, a "normal" rate.
-Starters in the AT&T team have pitched 6.2 innings per start. A 9.8M bullpen backs them up. Starters in the Dream team (in PNC) are pitching 6.2 inning per start. Very same number, which is not surprising given that the stadium parameters and the starting pitchers' structure are roughly the same. Yet 2M more is spent on the bullpen. Moreover, the best reliever in the AT&T team has pitched the most; the best reliever in the Dream team has pitched the least.
We should always refrain from judging the success (or lack of) of a team after a third season. I wouldn't be surprised if J-Pav finishes first, considering that his division seems (after a first quick glance) relatively weak.
This said, usage drives a lot the success of a team or not. If you compare this Dream Team to the one posted in j-pav's last post (the AT&T team), there are striking difference:
-Perez in the AT&T team faced 40% of lefty hitters. Same for Maholm (5L) and LEster (5L). As a result, you're getting more than what you paid for with these three players. In the current Dream Team, Perez faces 29% of lhp, a "normal" rate.
-Starters in the AT&T team have pitched 6.2 innings per start. A 9.8M bullpen backs them up. Starters in the Dream team (in PNC) are pitching 6.2 inning per start. Very same number, which is not surprising given that the stadium parameters and the starting pitchers' structure are roughly the same. Yet 2M more is spent on the bullpen. Moreover, the best reliever in the AT&T team has pitched the most; the best reliever in the Dream team has pitched the least.
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by MARCPELLETIER » Sat Nov 21, 2009 12:18 am
Also, I agree with durantjerry that Longoria hurts your team. This is true to both teams. If you look at the AT&T team, I don't have the RC numbers, but I'm pretty sure that, once you factor running RC and defense RC, he falls behind McCann, Furcal, Victorino who are all paid in the same bracket. And he (seemingly) didn't get hurt.
On opposite, Longoria didn't get the chance of not being hurt in the Dream team. Plus, the stadium is even less friendly for him.
Overall, the TSN ratings have not been kind for players who's main contribution come from homeruns. Players with 8BP vs lhp, 8 BP vs rhp, with low direct homeruns, are the worst buys of this year, and Longoria fits that description (he's actually having some additional slugging value vs rhp). His injury rating makes him somewhat a better value than other 8BP/8BP third basemen, but he's in the lower part in the bargain list.
On opposite, Longoria didn't get the chance of not being hurt in the Dream team. Plus, the stadium is even less friendly for him.
Overall, the TSN ratings have not been kind for players who's main contribution come from homeruns. Players with 8BP vs lhp, 8 BP vs rhp, with low direct homeruns, are the worst buys of this year, and Longoria fits that description (he's actually having some additional slugging value vs rhp). His injury rating makes him somewhat a better value than other 8BP/8BP third basemen, but he's in the lower part in the bargain list.
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by AeroDave10 » Sat Nov 21, 2009 10:52 am
[quote:bffd227b7a="J-Pav"]Anything on the positive side?[/quote:bffd227b7a]
Derek Lowe, Joe Mauer, and Josh Anderson were all excellent decisions for PNC that are working out well. BAL L platoons Joe Dillon and Edgar Renteria were also smart pick ups.
I think the biggest problem is that the pitching is designed only for PNC. Look at the home / road splits, especially for Saunders and Perez. They are getting killed on the road! :shock:
Derek Lowe, Joe Mauer, and Josh Anderson were all excellent decisions for PNC that are working out well. BAL L platoons Joe Dillon and Edgar Renteria were also smart pick ups.
I think the biggest problem is that the pitching is designed only for PNC. Look at the home / road splits, especially for Saunders and Perez. They are getting killed on the road! :shock:
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by MARCPELLETIER » Sat Nov 21, 2009 6:03 pm
[quote:7a416a0f71]Anything on the positive side?[/quote:7a416a0f71]
My comments were restricted to the comparison between the Dream Team and the AT&T team.
Overall, both the Dream Team and the AT&T team are solid team, based on a judicious use of resources. Lots of great pick-ups for a low hitting environment, most mentioned by AeroDave. I wouldn't be surprised that the Dream Team finishes first in the division.
But if the question is whether there is anything positive in the Dream Team that is not present in the AT&T, honestly, I see only one, the choice of Mauer at catcher, with Nieves as a back-up (one of the best 0.5M catcher). But overall, the AT&T team was more adapted to its opponents, had a better use of a bullpen, used the bench slightly better. In my eyes, the AT&T is a superior team.
My comments were restricted to the comparison between the Dream Team and the AT&T team.
Overall, both the Dream Team and the AT&T team are solid team, based on a judicious use of resources. Lots of great pick-ups for a low hitting environment, most mentioned by AeroDave. I wouldn't be surprised that the Dream Team finishes first in the division.
But if the question is whether there is anything positive in the Dream Team that is not present in the AT&T, honestly, I see only one, the choice of Mauer at catcher, with Nieves as a back-up (one of the best 0.5M catcher). But overall, the AT&T team was more adapted to its opponents, had a better use of a bullpen, used the bench slightly better. In my eyes, the AT&T is a superior team.
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by J-Pav » Sat Nov 21, 2009 9:37 pm
1. Furcal ($6.84)
2. [color=darkred:a1b2971884]Roberts ($7.23)[/color:a1b2971884] Iwamura ($6.56)
3. Mauer ($7.93)
4. [color=darkred:a1b2971884]Jones, C. ($8.32)[/color:a1b2971884] Longoria ($6.43)
5. [color=darkred:a1b2971884]Upton, B.J. ($5.89)[/color:a1b2971884] Ankiel ($5.22)
6. Dempster ($6.14)
7. [color=darkred:a1b2971884]Mussina ($3.90)[/color:a1b2971884] Zambrano ($3.90)
8. Anderson, J. ($3.40)
9. [color=darkred:a1b2971884]Balfour ($5.70)[/color:a1b2971884] Wagner ($4.15)
10. [color=darkred:a1b2971884]Santana, E. ($6.95)[/color:a1b2971884] Lowe ($6.38)
It's not really a [i:a1b2971884]Dream Team[/i:a1b2971884] when you get only four of your top ten picks - how different might this team look if I would've gotten Chipper instead of Longoria? However, that's all woulda, coulda, shoulda now.
That the low budget AT&T staff is outperforming my other higher dollar staff is one of those things I see only in hindsight. On balance, it usually doesn't work out this way. AT&T Perez is 8-1 at home, 6-7 on the road w/ a .245 BA allowed against RHB. SF Perez has only four decisions at home to eight on the road (1-7). With some more home starts in the next 2/3 of the season, hopefully things will even out some. I really only need him to be .500 if the other three are getting their wins. On both teams, I chose the best pitchers at their corresponding price levels (the right guys in the right seats on the bus). The final stats are always subject to the wide swings the dice give you.
One thing you guys seem to be overlooking is the section where I wrote that ballpark advantages are diminished. I build my teams for a completely neutral ballpark. I chose PNC specifically because of guys like Furcal and Mauer, and also because I knew I'd have 6-8 LHB in the lineup. And what do I get? Longoria is leading the team in runs scored at HOME! He's not Chipper Jones, but I must be missing where he's the disaster everyone seems to believe he is. If he would just start hitting some homers on the road, he'd be more than adequate. He's certainly better than Chris Iannetta at this price, no?
2. [color=darkred:a1b2971884]Roberts ($7.23)[/color:a1b2971884] Iwamura ($6.56)
3. Mauer ($7.93)
4. [color=darkred:a1b2971884]Jones, C. ($8.32)[/color:a1b2971884] Longoria ($6.43)
5. [color=darkred:a1b2971884]Upton, B.J. ($5.89)[/color:a1b2971884] Ankiel ($5.22)
6. Dempster ($6.14)
7. [color=darkred:a1b2971884]Mussina ($3.90)[/color:a1b2971884] Zambrano ($3.90)
8. Anderson, J. ($3.40)
9. [color=darkred:a1b2971884]Balfour ($5.70)[/color:a1b2971884] Wagner ($4.15)
10. [color=darkred:a1b2971884]Santana, E. ($6.95)[/color:a1b2971884] Lowe ($6.38)
It's not really a [i:a1b2971884]Dream Team[/i:a1b2971884] when you get only four of your top ten picks - how different might this team look if I would've gotten Chipper instead of Longoria? However, that's all woulda, coulda, shoulda now.
That the low budget AT&T staff is outperforming my other higher dollar staff is one of those things I see only in hindsight. On balance, it usually doesn't work out this way. AT&T Perez is 8-1 at home, 6-7 on the road w/ a .245 BA allowed against RHB. SF Perez has only four decisions at home to eight on the road (1-7). With some more home starts in the next 2/3 of the season, hopefully things will even out some. I really only need him to be .500 if the other three are getting their wins. On both teams, I chose the best pitchers at their corresponding price levels (the right guys in the right seats on the bus). The final stats are always subject to the wide swings the dice give you.
One thing you guys seem to be overlooking is the section where I wrote that ballpark advantages are diminished. I build my teams for a completely neutral ballpark. I chose PNC specifically because of guys like Furcal and Mauer, and also because I knew I'd have 6-8 LHB in the lineup. And what do I get? Longoria is leading the team in runs scored at HOME! He's not Chipper Jones, but I must be missing where he's the disaster everyone seems to believe he is. If he would just start hitting some homers on the road, he'd be more than adequate. He's certainly better than Chris Iannetta at this price, no?
- J-Pav
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- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
by Palmtana » Sat Nov 21, 2009 10:09 pm
(Quote from [i:d4918af8d6]The Secret Formula 2009[/i:d4918af8d6] thread.)
[quote:d4918af8d6="mbertolli"]......My second concern is the autodraft. I clearly have not figured it out at all. In all but one case I've had the first or second overall waiver pick. Team 5, I did not get a single starting position player and only 1 starting pitcher that I listed. Talk about behind the 8 ball to start a season!
I would love to see an in depth autodraft strategy breakdown. Has there been one?
Mike.[/quote:d4918af8d6]
Here's what works for me:
Hitters first - My first 7 or 8 swing the bat. I'll put a catcher platoon or the great D, no hit SS or a couple of unpopular platoon guys down the list. How to rank your top picks comes with experience. Print out the page that has your rankings (the page before you choose a park). After the autodraft look at who you missed and move them up the next time.
Draft non-* SP's with the next 6-7 slots. Less demand. Get 1 or 2 who have a reliever rating. That give's you more SP choices to craft your team. You can drop 1 (or 2) of them for RP after the draft. Put your other relievers low on the card. There's lots of RP to choose from.
List your hard to replace guys higher on the card. For instance, the cheap no-field DH. If you miss on him is there someone comparable or are you going to have to take 2M out of your pitching to replace him? Same thing with the <1M extreme relievers. Or the cheap closer.
If you want a big closer, put the most expensive one at the bottom of your card. If you don't get him, you'll get one of the other high priced guys not drafted. Same thing for a high-priced SP.
Good luck on your quest for the last waiver pick.
[quote:d4918af8d6="mbertolli"]......My second concern is the autodraft. I clearly have not figured it out at all. In all but one case I've had the first or second overall waiver pick. Team 5, I did not get a single starting position player and only 1 starting pitcher that I listed. Talk about behind the 8 ball to start a season!
I would love to see an in depth autodraft strategy breakdown. Has there been one?
Mike.[/quote:d4918af8d6]
Here's what works for me:
Hitters first - My first 7 or 8 swing the bat. I'll put a catcher platoon or the great D, no hit SS or a couple of unpopular platoon guys down the list. How to rank your top picks comes with experience. Print out the page that has your rankings (the page before you choose a park). After the autodraft look at who you missed and move them up the next time.
Draft non-* SP's with the next 6-7 slots. Less demand. Get 1 or 2 who have a reliever rating. That give's you more SP choices to craft your team. You can drop 1 (or 2) of them for RP after the draft. Put your other relievers low on the card. There's lots of RP to choose from.
List your hard to replace guys higher on the card. For instance, the cheap no-field DH. If you miss on him is there someone comparable or are you going to have to take 2M out of your pitching to replace him? Same thing with the <1M extreme relievers. Or the cheap closer.
If you want a big closer, put the most expensive one at the bottom of your card. If you don't get him, you'll get one of the other high priced guys not drafted. Same thing for a high-priced SP.
Good luck on your quest for the last waiver pick.
- Palmtana
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