Silly HAL move or just a great play from the outfield?

[magnotti]

Hi all,

Trying to figure this. Bottom of eighth, down by one run. Runners at first and third, two outs, with the lead off batter due up. Runner on third is thrown out attempting to steal. Did HAL attempt a double steal/straight steal of home (if so WTF?) or was the runner thrown out on the previous fly ball attempting to tag up?

*** BOTTOM OF INNING 8 ***
SUBSTITUTE 1B- Doug Mientkiewicz
SUBSTITUTE 2B- Fernando Vina
0 V.Guerrero 6-6 Single (CF) b-1 F9
0 1 Stolen Base 1-2 F9
0 2 C.Jones 4-3 Double (RF) 2-H b-2 fly(RF)x F9
SUBSTITUTE P - Ugueth Urbina
0 2 D.Bichette 3-3 Line Out (SS) b-0 F9
1 2 J.Thome 1-8 Walk b-1 F9
SUBSTITUTE PR- Manny Martinez
1 12 G.Anderson Wild Pitch 2-3 1-2 F9
1 23 G.Anderson 3-11 Single (CF) 3-H 2-3 b-1 bpSI 1-7 F9
1 1 3 B.Mayne 3-10 Fly Out (RF) b-0 bpSI 1-7 F9
2 1 3 Caught Stealing 3-o 1-2 F9

[voovits]

There are only 3 possibilities here that I could think of.

1. Failed double steal attempt
2. Failed hit and Run attempt (batter misses pitch, forcing steal of home)
3. Failed Suicide Squeeze attempt (like above, batter misses pitch, forcing steal attempt)

None of them really make sense but since Thome was pinch run for, I'm assuming the pinch runner is reasonably fast.
Who was at the plate at the time? Does he have a good bunt or h&r rating?

[magnotti]

Shannon Stewart was up. C's for both bunting and h&r. Yikes.

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/league/player.html?player_id=1107&year=1999

Nothing checked on his card (sac like bunt more).

It can't be a squeeze attempt, because my Manager Profile for this league says I am 2 for 2 in squeeze situations.

Most likely to me seems option number two, although I have h&r set to normal. Not sure why HAL would do that in this situation.

[magnotti]

BTW, the pinch runner was Manny Martinez.

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/league/player.html?player_id=2449&year=1999

[voovits]

Well, Urbina has a hold rating of +9, so a stolen base attempt or H&R is certainly feasible, though still not a good idea.
Not all of HALs moves make sense. I can't seem to figure this one out.

[boyer14]

If I understand a steal of home from the Super-Advanced rules (http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/btf/pages/basesim/somrules.htm) you subtract 9 from the second of the two steal numbers (14 for Manny Martinez) and disregard the pitcher's hold rating and the catcher's arm rating. For Martinez that would get you 14-9 = 5. So there would be a 5/20 or 25% chance that he would steal successfully (if I understand this rule correctly). So with two out in the eighth down by one run - depending on who the next batter is (a weak hitter, perhaps?) it might make some statistical sense to try and steal to tie the game. If the next hitter is less than a .250 hitter against Urbina - then an out from the next hitter might be more likely to occur than a successful steal. Does this make sense? This is all in the Strat world, of course - wouldn't likely see this move by a manager in the real world.

[magnotti]

That makes sense, but is this really the way HAL makes his decisions? I guess you probably can't answer that.

Even so, Shannon Stewart was coming up. He was hitting .288/.368/.380 this year and his 1999 card is .304/.371/.411. Even the numbers say just let Stewart swing away.

I guess I would be laughing if the steal worked and I won the game. It's just that I was playing the second place team and I am in first by only 2 games with 40 to go. Every game is important.

[MARCPELLETIER]

No H&R allowed with a man on third.
No squeeze allowed with two outs.
So it's a delayed steal of home.

The adjustment for a direct steal of home is -9, but for a delayed steal of home, it is -5.

Of course, that little candy comes with a price.

The adjustment for the runner at first base is pretty bad.

Second number + catcher's arm (no chance to get the lead, of course...it's a delayed steal!!!)

If the defender elects to throw the ball at second, then the offensive team may decide to send the runner on 3rd at home. In this case, the adjustment is second number - 5.

Then the defender has the choice to tag out the runner coming at second base, or to cutoff the ball and send the throw at homeplate.

In this example, we don't know who was catching, but Anderson (13-4) is at first and Manny Martinez (18-14) is at third. Assuming an adequate catcher (arm = -1), we have the following choice:

Go at second base: safe chance for Anderson: 1-3
Cut off and go at home: safe chance for Martinez: 1-9

So the real question is, what the F...was Hal thinking? Why cut off and go at plate?

In the simulation, if you send Posada at second on a delayed steal (-/-, chance to be safe at second: 1, from times to times, Hal will nevertheless cut off the ball and try to get the runner at home plate out.

[magnotti]

Kelly Stinnett was catching, a +1 arm:

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/league/player.html?player_id=1108&year=1999

[voovits]

[quote:a442af421a="marcus wilby"]No H&R allowed with a man on third.
No squeeze allowed with two outs.
So it's a delayed steal of home.
[/quote:a442af421a]

You know, I knew those rules too, but they totally slipped my mind.
A delayed steal never even entered my mind because cutting off and throwing home makes no sense at all, but this is HAL we're talking about.
I wouldn't be surprised if it was just a straight steal of home instead of the double steal.