by 1st Command Commando » Tue Mar 21, 2006 6:34 pm
HAL factors in outfielder's throwing arm, and speed of the base runner, and this can be modified by game situation - how many outs and is the runner being held being the main ones. My understanding, and this is not backed up by proof, is if you select normal baserunning, then HAL gives the green light if there is a 65% chance. If you are aggressive, then 60% chance. If extra aggressive, then 55% chance. If conservative, then 70% chance. If extra conservative, then 75% chance. 1-11 = 55%. 1-12 =60%. 1-13 = 65%. Ect. So, baserunning set at aggressive, outfielder's arm +1, baserunner speed = 1-13 gives result of 1-14 or 70% chance. HAL is sending him. Another situation: Man on second, two outs, single to center field, baserunner not being held. Centerfielder is Van Slyke, -3 arm. Baserunning set to conservative. (My understanding is the runner is off with the crack of the bat, so he gains +2 for speed modifier with 2 outs). Baserunner is Tim Raines, 1-17 speed. (one final aside, if a 20 is rolled for the play at the base, the runner is automatically out. There is no 100% or better chance to advance, 95% is as good as it gets). 17+2-3=16, 80% chance of success, HAL is sending Raines. Same situation, Hassey trying to score, I think he is 1-9, 9+2-3=8, HAL puts up the stop sign at 3B. What I do not know is if HAL will take more of a chance in a critical game situation, where Hassey in the above example might represent the tying or go-ahead run in the ninth inning....
Again, I am not 100% positive about this. Just comes from reading StratFan all those years, playing the board game 10 years, owning some of the CD ROM versions, and also reading the little monthly newsletter that used to get published from Wisconsin or something. Lots of great reading and nuggets of info in those publications.
Enuf on my .02 worth. Hope this helps or at least stimulates the thinking. Would love to hear if anyone agrees or disagrees with me.
sog