2008 playoff run - should I shake things up?

[daniel_j]

I'm a slightly better than average team lucky enough to have a narrow edge in the WC with only a few games to go. My roster is pretty inefficient, and I was wondering if this fairly dramatic shakeup makes any sense:

The basic plan would be to drop Lester, Madson, Drew, and Reynolds, and pick up ARod and Scutaro (I might need to make one other minor adjustment, but that's the key plan).

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/team/team_other.html?user_id=242802&stats=sim

I would dramatically improve my lineup w/Arod, cut down the errors at 3B, give up a little defense at SS (Drew has hit poorly for me). I'm not losing much pitching as Lester is a poor fit for ballpark (and some of the other liklely playoff parks), anyway, and less Madson would probably just mean more Broxton (who I've badly underused so far).

I know the common thinking is that the 80% waiver discounting hurts your overall roster too much, but I'm not sure this wouldn't be a good idea.

Am I crazy?

[mesquiton]

Your plan might have worked a few days ago. But your team has already completed 153 games, and roster moves are not permitted after game 141. So, you'll have to make the best of what you have.

They got you this far, hope they take you all the way. Good luck!

[daniel_j]

Well, that wasn't smart.

Thanks for the feedback.

[mesquiton]

Don't be too hard on yourself. Lots to learn in this game, and nobody knows it all. Welcome aboard, looks like you're off to a good start!

As for your original question, generally the 20% hit on mid-season moves makes them a bad idea, as you noted. But you don't have to be "crazy" to think a move is worth the salary hit. On rare occasions you can indeed improve your team. It's all about the matchups. If you can REALLY improve your overall matchups, then it's worth the hit, no matter how big.

[coyote303]

I've said this before: I am thrilled when managers in my division take a 20 percent salary hit, especially on big-named players.

I spend hours tweaking my team before a season starts, but once it starts, no more roster changes.

[edgecitytx]

And Coyote, I'm thrilled when I can make adjustments to my opponent knowing he won't make any adjustments back because he's rigid in his beliefs about never dropping after the season begins! :P

I don't really disagree with you. The best first advice for newbies is don't drop, especially high dollar players. But Mesquiton's right: if you can improve your matchups, it can be worth the hit.

There are a lot of different ways to win at this game. If you piece together matchup pitchers and one dimensional players, like I do, you can drop/add without it hurting that much.

I evaluate my team and the league at roughly 54 games, when I've played everyone, and I adjust as necessary, and again at 81, and then I adjust for my division at 126 and take one last look at 141, the last day to drop. I'd rather that I never had to make a move, but if it would improve my team, of course I will.

On 3 of my 4 2008 championships, I made at least one drop that I consider crucial, mostly low dollar, but I've swapped out Huff for Davis when I saw that the other two division winners were in Yankee/Progressive/PNC with reverse lefties.

And I especially think I have to be prepared to make adjustments when I'm playing against real good players who will adjust against me. If I'm in a league where my team is clearly the best, well I should never make a move and have patience and let the cream rise to the top. But in veteran's leagues there are 11 other players as good as me and the trick is to cover my weaknesses while exploiting theirs.

Again, I'm not saying you're wrong, but I am saying Mesquiton's right. It's all about

[durantjerry]

[quote:8b7065f8c0]I've said this before: I am thrilled when managers in my division take a 20 percent salary hit, especially on big-named players.

I spend hours tweaking my team before a season starts, but once it starts, no more roster changes. [/quote:8b7065f8c0]
To flatly state you will make no more roster changes once the season starts is a poor way to think IMO. As has been shown by many over the years, there are countless different ways to win in SOMO. I agree that changes usually are not good at 80%, but of course there will be times when changes improve your team. I have probaly a half dozen playoff teams and a couple of championships that are directly related to changes made during seasons that involved the 20% hit. There are many reasons why a change could be beneficial even with the cap hit. As I said, it usually isn't going to take you to the promised land, but to say you would never do it would be to miss out on those opportunities when it can help.

[tcochran]

durantjerry is right, that it all depends on the circumstances. On my first playoff team, my division had a tight race at about game 120. I noticed, though, that 2 of the other 3 teams in my div played poorly against LHP.

After adding Hamels and Danks then, we cleaned up in the division-only games at the end of the season. We still lost in the semis, of course, but we would never have gotten there without the pitching changes.

[fredpaii]

I'm hardly a grizzled veteran of this game (15 or so total leagues to this point). I believe what we're really debating though, without formally calling it out, is whether the better players (the cards, not you) can have "off years" and slumps.

Just how predictable is HAL? I don't believe HAL is 100% predictable. In other words, the cards and your Park (along with the rest of the Parks in your division at least) could be optimal but sometimes things don't unfold how it seems they ought to. Like a Victor Martinez from the 2005 season set will turn out to be a singles hitter even though he's playing in a heavily offensive Home Park like Ameriquest and his card shows he should really be banging HRs left and right (mostly left-handed though...ha). VMart was a wimp for me in freakin Ameriquest where it's easy to hit HRs hitting from the left side. He faced plenty of RHPs but the thing is that HAL must have had the majority of the rolls landing on the pitcher's card rather than VMarts card. And after sixty or so games I did cut VMart (took quite a Cap hit at $6 mil+)) and he was immediately picked up by someone else and VMart continued to flounder the rest of the season...but for someone else!

Of course that doesn't always happen that way with the better player cards. I picked up Carl Crawford (also in the 2005 season) in a different league and Home Park where he was ideal for Petco with his speed. Anyways, someone in my league cut him as Crawford was hitting around .218 BA and not much else to go with it. As soon as I picked him up (for an extreme Pitcher's Park mind you) he took off and hit all kinds of extra-basehits and stole something like 35 bases in 70 or so games. HAL is not always predictable. So how do you decide on what's the right move for you? Wait out a good player cards slump or cut him? I don't think there is a clear-cut answer. At least not a true objective one that concretely gives you the best choice every time. Patience or willingness to suffer probably has a lot to do with how likely you are to make a change and how soon. Intuition can also play a part. Don't ask me how that works though.

All that being said, I do believe the experienced player of this game can look at his division (player cards, you and me, and the Home Parks) and for the most part be able to tell how well they will do for that given season...post-draft before the season starts of course. That comes from playing the game and studying others lineups and strategies, so forth. In other words, while variation does occur from one league season to another with the same player cards (with same Home Park as well), there remains some degree of predictability with the overall teams and Managers. That's what I've noticed.

[edgecitytx]

Derfs, we're not debating whether to wait out 'slumps' or 'off years' here. These are cards with numbers and they don't have 'slumps' though the dice may grow cold. The answer, if you think they're 'slumping' is always to wait it out. That's what Coyote is saying, and he's right. I too am thrilled when I see managers in my division lose patience with a great card.

What Durantjerry and Tcochran and I are talking about is making adjustments to your opponents, division, whatever. And only when it gives you an edge you didn't have before or protects you against a weakness someone else is exploiting.