The Book

[bomp helium]

just throwing in my two bits about bunting...

bunting GOOD...for the reasons stated above...drawing the infield in...potential of a base hit for a speedy bunter...and the truly wonderful third baseman-throws-the-ball-into-the-bullpen play, which can be a very-exciting base-clearer...

sacrifice BAD...I don't believe in throwing outs away for any reason...you only get 27...simply moving a runner from 1st to second (at the cost of an out) isn't worth the price, IMO...

so I think the lost art of bunting for a base hit is an intruiging strategy (unavailable, however, in SOM)...while I think sacrificing (except in Petco facing Clemens...when you're TRULY playing for one run) is inefficient...

don't know how this stacks up statistically...just speaking from intuition and experience...

[MARCPELLETIER]

helium,

it's good that you make this precision. We all certainly agree that bunting for a hit is an art that fast players should exercise more.

But what the Book argues for only concern sacrifice attempts.

Yet, even when considering sacrifice attempts only, the Book concludes that in the current average NL environment, a sacrifice bunt attempt early in a game, on average, produces as many runs as hitting away.

[MARCPELLETIER]

The authors go very much in details about when it's good to bunt or not.

According to them, with runners on first and second and no out, all capable bunters---except your very best hitters---should bunt.

[MARCPELLETIER]

As for intentional walking,

you would have to check the book to know exactly what to do in any specific situation. But as a rule of thumb, the Book suggests to never walk intentionally a hitter except:

-in the ninth inning, to protect a lead or keep a tie, when the lead runner does not advance;
-vs a very strong, unprotected, hitter with 2 outs and men on bases;
-vs the 8th hitter (with a weak hitting pitcher on deck) with men on second and third and two outs;
-when the count turns 3-0 with first base open vs a good hitter.

Again, these are only rules of thumb. The book provides all the tables so you know what to do in any circumstance.

[MARCPELLETIER]

Here is the Book conclusion on clutch:

[quote:b7e7a5ea68]Batters perform slightly differently when under pressure. About one in six players increases his inherent OBP skill by eight points or more in high-pressure situations. A comparable number of players decreases it by eight points or more.[/quote:b7e7a5ea68]

[MARCPELLETIER]

Okay, so regrouping information from the Book with SOM characteristics, here is what would be an ideal line-up:

(both NL and AL, except for #9)
#1: best on-base, respectable slugging (over .400)---should have best OPS or be close to it, ideally with speed, respectable stealing capacity and high gbA.
#2: your second best overall hitter, ideally with few gbA, negative clutch
#3: your typical slugger (high hr chances, low on-base), ideally with few gbA, negative clutch
#4: your best hitter, ideally with positive clutch
#5: your best other card, with positive clutch and high gbA.
#6: your 6th best card, with high stealing/speed capacity
#7: your 7th best card
#8: your 8th best card
#9: your 9th best card----if OPS is similar to those for #7 and #8, then the best on-base among these three cards should hit #9.

Here is to illustrate, one line-up that respected these guidelines:
(I have avoided 4s in the field--neutral park--avoided platoons)

vs rhp
1-B.Giles (rf)
2-Bay (lf)
3-T.Clark (1b)
4-Ortiz (dh)
5-J.Kent (2b)
6-Figgins (3b)
7-varitek (c)
8-wells (cf)
9-j.wilson (ss)

vs lhp
1- Bay (lf)
2-Varitek (c)
3-Ortiz (dh)
4-Wells (cf)
5-Kent (2b)
6-Giles (rf)
7-T.Clark (1b)
8-Figgins (3b)
9-j.wilson (ss)

[MARCPELLETIER]

[quote:e5161456ba] Have you worked out the OPS versus each side in your considerations? Also, by "best card", "second best card" etc, do you mean best OPS? I ask these questions as I don't yet have the ratings book so I can't look myself at individual cards for the players you used. [/quote:e5161456ba]


The Book doesn't go into vs lhp/ vs rhp (well, it does, but in another chapter, and in a manner less related with Strat). In Strat, you should definitively look into vs lhp/vs rhp, as suggested in my line-up. Also, you increase your rentability of your investment if you buy more extremes cards 4L 4R than neutral cards (E), because you can have your 4R higher in a line-up vs rh and lower in a line-up vs lhp (and inversely for your 4L).


By best card, the Book means the card with the best "linear weights"....but without getting into details, this can be understood as best OPS (or better best 2OPS...that is: 2*on-base + slugging).

(to get into details, see www.tangotiger.net)