A Tale of a Season and a Half

[coyote303]

Fresh off my first and only 100-win season, I set off to do it again. I was able to draft every key position player I had in my super season. I did drastically upgrade at 2nd base (Fontenot replacing Counsell/Loretta platoon) and saved a little at LF (dropping Reed Johnson). I actually could have had the exact lineup I had the previous season, but I liked the changes I made.

My pitching staff had several new faces, but the replacements were comparable to what I had before. Basically I went with an average starting staff, good relief, and excellent defense. Hey, it worked last year!

My new season started out well enough. I was feeling confident...

And then the losing series started to pile up. We are now 45-48 with a negative 18-run differential. Billingsley, the "ace" of my staff has an ERA of 6.87 and my second best starter finally got his ERA under 6.00 down to 5.99. They have probably been the difference; I've never seen such a horrid performance.

So, when I hear coaches say you have to wait 20-30 games before you can tell how a player is going to do, I just smile. It's been 93 games, and I still don't know what this team will do, but I'm still hopeful!

Coyote

[the splinter]

I see apples and oranges...

While you have 90% of the same squad ...you are playing totaly different teams in totally different parks...factor in the fact that you can't duplicate dice rolls and you are playing a different season that will yield different results

[coyote303]

[quote:7b01b4598c="the splinter"]I see apples and oranges...

While you have 90% of the same squad ...you are playing totaly different teams in totally different parks...factor in the fact that you can't duplicate dice rolls and you are playing a different season that will yield different results[/quote:7b01b4598c]

Don't get me wrong. I wasn't expecting another 100-win season. And one of the reasons I did so well last season is three of the teams in my division made so many roster changes (although I actually did better against the rest of the league).

My point is how much variation to expect season to season, much less being able to determine a player's value based on 20 games.

And obviously my opponents are different and no one can predict the dice. Let's face it. It would be pretty boring if I indeed had discovered the perfect lineup that guaranteed success season after season.

What's fun, though, is trying to find that perfect lineup--the SOM player's holy grail if you will--even if it doesn't exist.

[chasenally]

Bring me a shurbery and the Holy hand grenade. Kill the bunny rabbit and most certainly never lie to the keeper of the bridge. Someday son this will all be yours. "What the curtains." When all else fails! Bring out your dead. Man was that a great movie or what. Always in search of the Holy Grail. Mike

[gbrookes]

Now go away or I shall taunt you a second time!

:)

The Black Knight says "hi" - but "None shall pass".

[Jake Squid]

When I've used extremely similar rosters I have gotten extremely similar results. But mine is a small sample size, so....

[coyote303]

I have posted in the past about (what I consider to be) the folly of dumping players mid-season and taking a 20 percent salary hit. But what was I supposed to do with this team? Surely, at least Billingsley had to go at least with his 6.87 ERA after 90+ games.

So, here's what I did......................nothing.

Slowly, my team turned things around. They went on to get a positive run differential, win 85 games, take their division, make it to the finals, and win the championship. Billingsley started to pitch like the ace he was and ended up 15-14 for the year, shaving over 1.50 off of his ERA. He also won both games he started in the playoffs.

Dumping players is like global thermonuclear war in the move [i:6a090d4fa1]War Games.[/i:6a090d4fa1] The only winning move is not to play the game.

Incidentally, if you are ever in my division, I urge you to try to prove me wrong by making numerous bold moves during the season!

:twisted:

[toshiro]

Dropping players with a 20% penalty is generally not a good thing. The cards are set, so there's nothing magic about dropping one guy and getting the same type of guy.

But there are times when it makes sense. Like if you figure out the entire league has an XL slant and you have a full brace of lefty SPs (or vice versa). Also, you may find that Adam Dunn is dragging you down if you're playing in a sea of Kaufmann's.

One time in ATG2, my entire div had like 75% lefty SPs. I dropped several guys and picked up Dave Henderson, Joe Medwick and Leo Durocher as we entered the final stretch. I won 24 of the last 36 games.

Even if you sacrifice 4 mil in penalties, that's only 5% of your roster. If you figure out that you grossly miscalculated something about the league, it could easily be worth it.

[artie4121]

I tend to agree with toshiro on the "Don't Drop and give me 20" theory, except in cases where you need to rescue a real weakness.

However, if you are under .500 and your pitching is down at the bottom of the pack, and you have very strong hitting, if after 40 or 50 games you are at the bottom of the pack, it may pay to downgrade one of the expensive hitters that is significantly underperforming, and upgrade your pitching, for example.

My rule of thumb (which most recently has become a smashed and bloodied one) is that if I am one of the top two or three teams in offensive production, and I have a star who is NOT doing ANYthing significant, THAT is the guy to downgrade for cash for pitching upgrades (or vice versa).

On the two playoff teams I have had (of my six completed seasons), I dropped with 20% penalty 12 players from one (I was left with $78 mil of my $80 salary); and three players from the Championship team I had ($98 of $100 mil salary).

I guess it shouldn't be a habit, but if you are really stinking up the division and only have one way to go, and that's up . . . it may be worth the gamble.

[coyote303]

Toshiro gives a good example of the rare exception to my never-drop rule. It's based on stadiums or an unexpected plethora of opposing left-handed starting pitchers.

Artie, I can't completely agree with you. If you made an error forming your team (say, having a $5 million hitter riding the bench because there's no room in the lineup), then I say go ahead and make a move.

However, the fact that your team is sub-.500 or that a certain player is underperforming is not a good reason to pull the trigger. My team that inspired this post was sub-.500 after 90 games. My best starter was seriously underperforming. Of course, I could have replaced him and I might have won anyway, but my chances would have been decreased.