how much patience required?

[chess2899]

Voovits said:

[quote:bc25d12a81]I had a season once where Paul Mirabella collected 32 saves, to a 2.70ERA and a 1.11WHIP.
Season end reveal showed it was his 84 season!
I would certainly have dropped him mid season if I had known what I had with him. [/quote:bc25d12a81]

My point exactly! And had you dropped him early, you would have gotten 20 less saves. The same thing can happen to Leal and Witt. They could lose 20 games in their best year just like Mirabella collected 32 saves in his worst.

So, I would drop a 0-11 player in their best year because I can't afford to wait for a turn-around which may never arrive, case in point.

[pyramid1]

OK!!! Officially snake bit!!! Leal is 0-10 with a WHIP now of 1.30 while I've just started another league with him on it as well. On this new team he is 0-2 with a WHIP of 1.24. Oh yea I also have Reggie Jackson as my DH on this team as well. He just got injured last nite revealing he is on his 1980 card!!! How is he doing? He's batting .148 with an OBP of .200 with no HRs!!!!

[PillPop]

How is your team doing overall?

[pyramid1]

oddly enough I named my team OMG IDK. They are a whopping 18-33. I also have Niedenfuer who is 2-6 with a WHIP of 1.08. My other team is 3-6 just starting out but Reggie should not be doing so poorly on his 1980 card.

[entropy8686]

[quote:cb175516bc="chess2899"]Voovits said:

[quote:cb175516bc]I had a season once where Paul Mirabella collected 32 saves, to a 2.70ERA and a 1.11WHIP.
Season end reveal showed it was his 84 season!
I would certainly have dropped him mid season if I had known what I had with him. [/quote:cb175516bc]

My point exactly! And had you dropped him early, you would have gotten 20 less saves. The same thing can happen to Leal and Witt. They could lose 20 games in their best year just like Mirabella collected 32 saves in his worst.

So, I would drop a 0-11 player in their best year because I can't afford to wait for a turn-around which may never arrive, case in point.[/quote:cb175516bc]

That's completely backwards thinking and not what he's saying at all pops... whatever the player has done has no bearing on future events if the year is known...it's a damn dice roll, nothing more... cutting a player in their best year if you KNOW it's their best year is just screwing yourself on probabilities. That's voodoo thinking if you think dropping a good card will help.

[YountFan]

voodoo thinking wins championships. My Voodoo Doll of Boston #24 proves it!

[chess2899]

Sometimes, Voodoo Thinking beats HAL's Hallucinations.

I understand that each day is random, but I have had good year players have terrible 162 game seasons. Of course, if you make the playoffs, that good year might show itself.

I have kept these underperforming clowns and finished 1 game out of the playoffs because my "great year" starter went 8-21. Any other random pitcher could have gone 10-19 and staked me to the playoffs.

You would hope that "good years" will eventually show themselves in the league, but it is possible to have 162 games of crappy rolls. As I fade in the standings waiting for that year to appear, it becomes an act of frustration.

Perhaps a solution would be: offer a trade to other managers noting the injury reveal. Often, after a trade, it seems like the player is "rebooted" by HAL.

YountFan, I assume you meant Boston #21, but I can see you having a Manny Ramirez voodoo doll. :lol:

[entropy8686]

hmm interesting, so we aren't counting out the presence of other variables?... cause i figure a dice roll is a dice roll.

[voovits]

Besides, if a pitcher on a good year is underperforming, who's to say that another free agent pitcher you pick up who statistically is worse, would do any better?
Chess, you say that any other random pitcher could have gone 10-19, but that same random pitcher could also have gone 6-23, or worse.
I don't care what his past games indicate, I'll take the guy who has an 80% chance of getting the batter out over the guy with the 70% chance any day of the week (except maybe Wednesdays, but only because I like pretzels).

What I like to do sometimes when i have that problem is to shake things up within the scope of the team.
Remember my Mike Witt example from above? At one point in the season he was something along the lines of 6-12. I pushed one of his starts back a game, giving an extra days rest, also setting him up to face a different group of pitchers since every team has a 4 man rotation.
As a result, the ERA dropped, the WHIP dropped and his record improved to 15-17 (was 15-15 until his last 2 starts).
I have tried similar strategies with hitters, trying them in different batting order slots.
Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. It all comes down to the bottom line and that's the percentages.

[tkkjlsoup]

In Blackjack when the dealer shows a 5 and you have 11 you double down. Every time. Even if you have drawn a 2 and lost the last 50 times you did it.

In poker when there is a pot of $500 and it costs you $25 to draw with 9 sure outs to the best hand, you call. Every time. Even if you have not hit your draw the last 50 times in a row.

In Stratomatic if you have a great card for your park, you keep it. Every time. Even if your pitcher has a 6.4 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. Even if your hitter has a .420 OPS.

The only problem occurs when there are glitches in the game (e.g. when Roberto Clemente gets a phantom injury or when there are fewer than 52 cards in a poker deck). If there are phantom injuries, then we can never be 100% sure that the injury reveal is a true indicator of the card. Also, when the advanced logic options change certain card outcomes, there is a glitch. The glitch may produce more realistic results at the end of the year, but it does not rely exclusively on the card outcomes and that is where the "keep the good card" truism can break down.