Not a biggie, but what are the odds?

[chasenally]

*** TOP OF INNING 5 ***
0 M.Difelice 2-5 Single (RF) b-1 F9
SUBSTITUTE P - Todd Ritchie (role: Middle Man)
0 1 T.Hunter 1-11 Pop Out (SS) b-0 bpSI 1-19 F9
1 1 M.Benjamin 3-8 Strike Out b-0 F9
2 1 J.Gonzalez 2-10 Fly Out (LF) b-0 bpHR 1-19 F9
*** BOTTOM OF INNING 5 ***
0 I.Rodriguez 1-9 Ground Out (SS) b-0 F9
1 D.Bichette 6-7 Fly Out (CF) b-0 F9
2 R.Bournigal 5-6 Fly Out (CF) b-0 F9
*** TOP OF INNING 6 ***
0 D.Easley 2-7 Walk b-1 F9
0 1 C.Jones 1-11 Home Run (RF) 1-H b-H bpHR 1-17 F9
0 R.Palmeiro 3-12 Walk b-1 F9
SUBSTITUTE P - Brian Williams
0 1 S.Alomar Jr. 5-6 Fly Out (CF) b-0 F9
1 1 B.Gilkey 6-7 Force Play (2B) 1-o b-1 gb(2B)x F9
2 1 M.Difelice 2-11 Fly Out (LF) b-0 bpHR 1-19 F9
2 missed BPHR's 1-19 and 1 BPS 1-19 in 2 innings. I won but WOW.

[scorehouse]

it's ez to calculate the chance a 20 will roll instead of 1 thru 19 and that it will happen again. and then again. it's about 8000 to 1. that's back to back to back.

[scorehouse]

try 800.

[fred_1_15301]

You had it right the first time. The probability of missing it 3 times in a row is 1/8000

[chasenally]

Thank you I should have bought lottery tickets.

[Terry101]

You know, it's not that simple. The odds are 1 in 8000 BEFORE any of this happened. In other words, what are the odds that a 1 in 20 event would happen three consecutive times.

Once it ALREADY happened twice, then the odds of it happening one more time are 1 in 20.

[fred_1_15301]

Yes but I think what he's asking is what are the odds of this happening 3 times in a row in a game. Thus, it is implied that he's asking what the odds are BEFORE the game starts. The 3rd occurrence is certainly independent of the first 2 occurrences. Thus, the probability of it happening a 3rd time given that it already happened 2 times would be 1/20. Thats not what he's asking though. Regardless, I agree that he should definitely buy a lottery ticket.......

[chasenally]

I was wondering what the odds were for 3 times in a row. I did hit a HR with a 1-17 in the middle but missed on 3 straight 1-19's. When I played the board game we always put the split card at the bottom of the deck so this could not happen more than twice. 20 being the last card and reshuffle and it was on the top. Just thought that this could be the first time ever in this online game :shock: . Mike