QUESTION for the 80's/70's vets...

[visick]

I'm a Strat vet but only dabble every once in awhile with the mystery card game. I am in the Tournament this year.

My question for you guys is this: What do you guys generally do with a guy, known NOT to be in his best years, who is over-performing? Say it's one of his worst years for that matter.

visick

[LMBombers]

If you know for sure what card a player has and it is his worst card I would dump him no matter what he is hitting as ultimately he won't be worth his carded value.

I recently dumped Pedro Guerrero even though he was hitting over .320 once I found I had his worst card. In this case his worst card is still a .280 BA card and he will do fairly well but I can find a .280 hitter with no power for a lot less than 7.44M.

It is all a matter of value for the buck. If you find a .280 hitter for 1-2M for example you have lots more money to put somewhere else and still have the same production as Guerrero's worst card in my example.

To look at it as a 200X manager, look at Guerrero's worst card and ask yourself if you would pay 7.44M for that card. I think the clear answer is no.

[visick]

No doubt Randy and I see your point.

But if a guy that u drafted to lead off vs. RH's is in his worst year AND slanted to the left side, but is getting the job done vs. RH's, what do ya do?

[LMBombers]

[quote:6dd6c2f176="socalchiro"]But if a guy that u drafted to lead off vs. RH's is in his worst year but is getting the job done vs. RH's, what do ya do?[/quote:6dd6c2f176]

Same answer as above. You do need to figure in fielding and speed but on the face of it I would dump him and try again for a slanted hitter vs RHP. If you are sure about the card then the current succes is a mirage.

A reverse example for the 2009 game would be if you drafted Pujols and after 15 games he is only hitting .250 with no power. Would you believe that he would end the season with similar numbers or would he end up much closer to his card?

However it is decisions like this that makes the mystery card games so much fun!

[YountFan]

[quote:3da7e0b5f5="socalchiro"]No doubt Randy and I see your point.

But if a guy that u drafted to lead off vs. RH's is in his worst year AND slanted to the left side, but is getting the job done vs. RH's, what do ya do?[/quote:3da7e0b5f5]

LMB is correct. They [b:3da7e0b5f5]tend[/b:3da7e0b5f5] to hit their card, but just like guys under-perform for a whole season, guys over-perform for a whole season. The odd are against you, but it is not all about the odds.

[voovits]

I also agree with LMB.
A players percentages do not change from game to game and past performances have no bearing on future results.
If a guy has a 23% chance on his card of getting on base vrs a righty, it's going to be that no matter what, even if he's been lucky enough to fall in that 23% often enough to his .300.
If anything that means he'll be due for a pretty bad slump. He may hit well all season long, but it's not a chance I'd be willing to take.

[Rigged Splits]

If he's a high priced player dump him right away and pick up someone else with a high price before they are all gone. Also someone else who's not paying attention to reveals (like me) may waste their money and pick him up. If he's cheap you can wait but it's still probably best to drop as soon as possible to try another cheap player.

[visick]

I hear ya all, and I respect all of your thoughts.

Problem is, it's late in the season (80% point)
ALOT of guys are now being recycled and we are at a point of there being no one being left.

When I say No One left I mean, a player or 2 is around, but his D might be terrible and/or they may have only 1 decent season on their card.

[PillPop]

It's all about performance. I've gotten great seasons from players who proved to be in one of their lesser cards once they are revealed at season's end.

If you're winning, and this card is working for you, go with it-- especially at this point in the season. Sure, most players eventually perform to their stats, but every now and then there's an outlier season, just like you can occasionally get a clinker from Ruth or Mays in ATG.

Of course, if a big slump should hit... :wink:

[Panzer ace]

Late in the season you have to decide what the odds are of getting a better card for 80% of the current player. If his card is easily replaceable with cheaper players with similar cards and it frees up $$$ to make other moves then you have to make the move. If it is likely a lateral move for the same or worse card and eats up all your money, then there isnt much point in dumping the player. You have to take out the emotion and make it a simple math decision.