CF - arm or range?

[Knerrpool]

Which is more important? Say you have a 2(+1)e2 or 3(-1)e6? How about the same 2(+1) to a 3(-4)e9. Thanks for your input.

[AeroDave10]

Range. CF sees too many chances for a good arm to make up for the difference between 2 and 3.

[gbrookes]

...my personal preference would be for the CF-3, -1 arm, low e rating that you mentioned. Here is my math -
-the difference between a 2 range and a 3 range is 3 split chances. I believe one of those would be a double and 2 would be extra singles, but I could be wrong. That represents a 15% additional likelihood of a basehit off of a CFX die roll. The odds of a CFX die roll are 3/216, or one in 73 die rolls, or roughly once every (roughly) 1.8 games. Since the likelihood of the range difference making an extra base hit is just 15%, the likelihood of an extra base hit from that range difference would be once every 1.8 games times 100/15, or about once every 12 games. The difference in e ratings, at that low level, would not make much difference to this analysis.
-On the other hand, with the extra opportunities for runners to take bases used by online strat (virtually every single that does not have ** on the batter and pitcher cards, plus all of the ballpark singles), the CF arm will come into play fairly frequently. I would estimate once every 1.3 games. A difference in arms of 2 (-1 versus +1) would affect the outcome 10% of the time, meaning that the -1 arm would cause an extra OF assist once every 13 games. HOWEVER, in my experience, the better arm has a disproportionate effect on HAL's decision as to whether or not to SEND the runner! My favourite outcome for an outfield with great arms is to see the opposing runners holding up, instead of taking extra bases, time and time again! SO, personally, I really like the -1 arm, in any OF position.
-The analysis is quite different, in my view, if the choice of range is between a 3 and a 4 range. The X chart is very tough on 4 range outfielders. The difference in the likelihood of an additional base hit for a 4 range vs a 3 range is 5 split chances, or 25%! In my view, this is NOT worth the arm difference!

This is just my 2 cents, and how I analyse it! I am always fascinated by these discussions, and would be interest to hear more from other points of view!

Cheers!

Geoff Brookes

[gbrookes]

Looking at your question again, I think I would actually opt for the CF-3, e9, -4 arm, for all of the reasons I set out above. As leary as I am of an e9, I think it would be worth it to get the -4 arm! According to a table that I got from a bulletin board posting, the error % occurences are as follows for CF:
e3- 3.7%
e6- 6.9%
e9- 10.6%

Be wary of something though - I have seen a fair number of times in games when there is a THROWING error by an outfielder, and it almost always is an OF with a high e rating. So, the 3e9 (-4) CF may freeze a bunch of runners, and throw out a few, but, on top of pure fielding base hits and errors, he may also make some disastrous throwing errors. However, from what I have seen so far, the -4 arm still outweighs these possibilities, for the way I like to play the game!

Geoff

[coyote303]

This link won't answer your question, but it can help you see the difference between different ranges and error ratings for various positions.

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/btf/pages/basesim/stratfldg.htm

[chasenally]

When I look at OF I like to have range but I believe arm is more important only if you have atleast 2 minus arms in the OF. If you are looking for the difference between a -1 and a +1 to stop extra bases the -1 wont help you much if your other two are 0 or plus rated. When I draft my team I look at it from the opponets perspective. If I have no -3's and only one -2 I expect to be run on. I would go for range because as an OF my team has no arms.
On one team starting Monday I put Ankiel in CF with his R3 (-4) arm. I have R4 (-2) LF and R3 (-2) RF. The range is by far the worst I have ever had but I have a powerful team and a hitters park. I do expect the teams playing me to set thier baserunning to normal or even conservative when they play me. I believe this makes them need another hit in the inning to score runs some of the time. I would not run on this team, it can be an inning killer. Just having these guys out there can keep them from having to throw. I have a team with all -3 arms and only 7 OF assists in 81 games. I got to believe the other teams just won't run on me.
All this is of course is just MHO. Good Luck Mike

[gbrookes]

chasenally, I agree that when it comes to arm strength, it is a good idea to adopt an overall strategy and go big on that strategy, or not at all. I agree that -1 vs +1 doesn't make too much difference - but -3 or better, if you have 2 or more like that, can make a big difference.

Concur!

G

[Knerrpool]

In a different, but related, question:

I had a 3(-3)e7 playing LF and a 3(-1)e3 playing CF and, amongst other defensive sub moves, HAL switched them, so the 3(-3)e7 was playing center. I guess he did this because of the arm. I know the -3 arm gets wasted in LF but I had originally had the e3 playing CF over the e7 because CF gets more X chances. Any thoughts on which is better?

[apolivka]

Knerrpool, my experience has been rather opposite. I have a team with a cf-1(+2)e7/ lf-1e7 and then another outfielder listed as lf-1(-3)e10/ cf-1e10/ rf-1e10. EVERY TIME HAL makes a defensive switch of any kind, he swaps my Center Fielders to put the +2 arm out there. rrrrrrrrrrrrr. Drives me batty.

I'm pretty sure it has to do with the fact that Left Field is listed 1st for my -3 arm, and Center Field is listed 1st for the +2 arm. So, look to see if your guys are listed at multiple OF positions. I think when HAL goes through his defensive replacement logic, he will always favor the fielders 1st listed position.

[Knerrpool]

Hmmm, that's very interesting. Both of my guys have LF as their first position and CF as their second position. And, they both step down from a 2 rating in LF to a 3 rating in CF (so LF will always be a 2 and CF will always be a 3 no matter who is playing). So I end up with a 3(-3)e7 in CF and a 2(-1)e3 in LF. I guess that has something to do with HAL's thinking.