Carlos Zambrano $8 million

[bleacher_creature]

[quote:3498d1dbfe]I don't know the mathematical formula, etc...[/quote:3498d1dbfe]

Step 1: Study [url=http://strato.berce.us/dice.htm]THIS CHART[/url] everyday until memorized.

Zambrano has 2 HR chances out of 104, and [b:3498d1dbfe]4[/b:3498d1dbfe] (!) BP chances out of 104 vs RHBs. It doesn't matter really where they are on a card, although it is helpful to know the percenatages when glancing at cards. One BP chance on the 2 roll at 2.78%/3 columns, is no problem. If you add another on say the 11 (5.56/3 columns), we are now starting to have problems, especially if you have hitters' parks in your divsion.

That's why Zambrano must be watched in hitters' parks against teams with some LH pop.

[Stoney18]

thanks bleacher

[1crazycanuk]

Thanks for the info guys. Bleacher...if we're starting to have trouble with Z...who else is there? The top of the line starting pitchers are all taken...I wouldn't drop Z for anyone else out of the left overs.

All I know is I counted the number of BPHRs on his card, and where they are on his card, and felt the odds of those always coming up on the rolls are slim.

[SCOTTBROWN]

it's like playing craps and the odds there. sure 2 and 12 are good places to have them but if you have BPs on 4-2, 5-2 and 6-2 its like having one BP on 4-4 or 5-4 or 6-4.

speaking of craps.....who wants to play? :wink:

[Stoney18]

Roll the bones baby.

[zonachoke]

I wouldn't go as far as Hershey and say "he's a value," but Zambrano is probably priced more-or-less fairly.

Yes, he'll be a monster in Petco... but he'll be good in any park that's unkind to LH power hitters... and there are a bunch (KC, OAK, even HOU).

All those walks on his card are a bit peevish... but don't forget he has a -6 hold! The double play almost ALWAYS will be in order unless your catcher is Phil Nevin.

For good measure, a 5-7 roll vs. LH Batters = [b:6d098b3604]gb(2b)A[/b:6d098b3604]... that'll yield a fair number of GIDP for a flyball pitcher who strikes out 8 per 9 IP.
(He has a matching 6 points of gb(xx)A vs. RH batters).

And he's a 7-inning starter who can go every 4th game.

Keep him the heck out of Coors or Ameriquest and you'll be fine.

[bleacher_creature]

Good work Zona.

Canuck,

Hey where are you by the way? Vancouver? I'm in Seattle.

As far as who else is out there, what we are saying is that he is a great pitcher as long as he is a fit for 1) your ballpark (of course). 2) Your division.

I hate "Coors" style baseball. I must have done something wrong to someone, because the Lord sent me into a division with 2 Coors, and a US Cell. All three of these guys must be serious vets with ratings disks, because they all are loaded with pitchers with for the most part ZERO (as in none) BPHRs.

A. Small, E. Bedard, Harden, Willis, J. Vargas, K. Escobar...they're all there. Brilliant work on the part of these guys.

[1crazycanuk]

LOL I hated Coors style ball too but I've had a few teams in Petco and wanted to try the other end of the scale.

I hear what you are saying about fitting the park but if Z will produce a lot of double plays that would be a bonus for Coors right? Plus, guys in pitchers parks may try to avoid the players that could destroy pitchers in Coors eh?

BTW..I'm in Windsor, Ontario. 8) I met a girl out in Washington before...beautiful state.

[1crazycanuk]

So should I keep Z and just play him on the road? That would be a waste of salary eh?

[1crazycanuk]

I traded Z in a package for AJ Burnett. No homeruns on his card. anyways, this has morphed into a different post. I'm wondering if Coors teams need great defence? I don't have the highest OBP and SLG in the league but Coors should improve anyone's numbers eh?