Super clutch team xi= 18-2 1run games= 42-15 crazy

[gbrookes]

BTW - it looks like the biggest factor in your turnaround was an improvement in the performance in your starting pitching. The pitchers that you ended the season with actually performed far better than the ones that you ditched, overall. NICE MOVES!
:)
Geoff

[gbrookes]

Sorry for running on - 2 more comments -

Obviously, your relief pitching was very important in winning the close games. Your 2 main relievers were dominant!

Re Kennedy - Infante is a very similar player, with similar strong points. I haven't picked him yet for a team, but looking more closely right now, I like his card a lot, for the same reasons. Both of Kennedy and Infante can be big contributors for their relatively small salary costs.

Geoff

[schnoogens]

I've gotta be honest, I don't see how that team performed as well as it did. Poor defense, heavily slanted vs. L pitching, too many $2-$3M mediocre players...but what do I know, because they've won you at least 1 free credit.

[apolivka]

I LOVE this team! It's slow, VERY negative clutch, injury prone, and iron gloved. It was outscored by it's opponents by over 100 runs, yet had a winning record and could win the title. Totally against the grain of what many people think to do well in 1-run games, yet it must have been just about unreal in them.

I do like the bullpen, Hoffman and Hawksworth really did great, and you did a nice job getting 172 innings out of Hawksworth with only ONE blown save. That's nearly impossible.

This team is living a charmed life, it should win it all. You must have sacrificed the appropriate number of live chickens to Jobu/HAL.

[STEELxGLADIATOR]

well early on I was 8 games out the starting pitchers I had were getting blown out early. so I decided to get pitchers with decent whips and not so much worry about era or longballs because I was in a decent picthers park the metro dome. I knew I had hoffman and I had him closing out games against both lefty and righty. I picked up Sherill to compliment him as a lefty closer and specialist, then I also got whats his name Hanksworth to shore up the middle relief and setup. Wow what a difference...suddenely no blowouts and any game that was close after five or so innings the pen would hold the game to allow my guys to catch up and then take leads late. I have to go back and count the walk off wins they had but it was a lot because I was amazed on how often it happened. My base running was always maxed no matter who I played I figured I could gamble on getting thrown out because my pen would hold teams down and my team would get another at bat and it did... more often then not. The pen thus made my hitters clutch because they would get second and third shots at late wins...it was not so much the $ clutch rating thing it was more the Pen giving my team more shots.

[STEELxGLADIATOR]

oh i had guys on the dl all seasn long it was pretty bad. thats why I eventually picked up kennedy and others.

[J-Pav]

[quote:db2eb6585b="Geoff Brookes"]I am really fascinated by the one run win question - what are the factors that lead to a high percentage of 1 run wins? I am not saying I have the answers yet - just guesses. I hope to study this a lot to see if it is really just luck most of the time, or whether there are actually some trends and strategies that make a difference to the percentages of 1 run wins.[/quote:db2eb6585b]

I have never seen the evidence to suggest one run games (as seen in the rear view mirror) are anything other than luck. If you torture the data long enough, you can get it to whisper "bullpen".

The question to be asked [b:db2eb6585b]Steel[/b:db2eb6585b] is "did you intend to achieve this on purpose? Or is this only an analysis with the benefit of hindsight?"

[quote:db2eb6585b="Geoff Brookes"]Not sure yet how I am going to tackle that question. I can check into 1 run games for teams that had great records or bad records, but I'm really not sure how I propose to analyze that yet!
[/quote:db2eb6585b]

The goal of all successful teams in SOM Online (more or less) is to score five runs and surrender only four. In essence then, the goal of [i:db2eb6585b]every[/i:db2eb6585b] game is to win by one run. To say your building a team to win one run games on purpose is redundant then.

However, having said that, I would contend that the one run record produced here is an outlier of luck on a grand scale. A $70 million dollar roster of "poor defense, heavily slanted vs. L pitching, too many $2-$3M mediocre players" with three division mates under .500 would not reproduce this record of one run wins a second time.

To back it up, and if [b:db2eb6585b]Steel[/b:db2eb6585b] (or a proxy) were agreeable, I would participate in a real time experiment to allow [b:db2eb6585b]Steel[/b:db2eb6585b] to draft and field his posted roster (in the same park) in a second effort to duplicate these results.

* Note to all...

I can't re-read my own post (even with the understanding of what I'm intending to say) without acknowledging the flagrant asshattery of how it probably sounds.

I am not calling [b:db2eb6585b]Steel[/b:db2eb6585b] out.

I am not calling out his team.

I am not trying to embarrass/disrespect anyone who posted.

I [i:db2eb6585b]am[/i:db2eb6585b] interested in the question asked: "What are the factors that lead to a high percentage of one run wins?"

I [i:db2eb6585b]am[/i:db2eb6585b] interested in seeing if someone can say (before the season starts): "I will win one run games by doing [i:db2eb6585b]x[/i:db2eb6585b], [i:db2eb6585b]y[/i:db2eb6585b] and [i:db2eb6585b]z[/i:db2eb6585b]."

I think [b:db2eb6585b]Steel[/b:db2eb6585b]'s team is a fun team to look at for all the reasons posted.

But is it a team to emulate :?:

[STEELxGLADIATOR]

No this team was not initially built to win by 1 run. We all build our teams hopefully to be consistent and or to give best chance to win in whatever fashion.



All ...repeat ALL....analysis are based on hindsight you cannot look at anything until it has happened and you have data.

The moves I made were based on strategic decisions based on what I was seeing like what teams in my division were doing..what ball park they had and thier lefty righty batter ratio and who was available.

Luck always plays a part in a game that has so many variables and random events yet we can adjust our teams to play the percentages.

I would say this team would not do well often but in the right time and place then yes it can.



That is why I made this post not to brag or say this is a blueprint for winning. I just wanted to show that people should never give up. we all hate those managers that disappear halfway through the season.I also wanted to see what people thought about this crazy team.

and yes I know have a team in another league with the exact same bullpen and 14 of the same guys,,,,,so hear we go


so far 5 and 7 and lost 2 1 run games.

[schnoogens]

I think it's a fun story, it's a good one to talk about.

However, (and I'm not trying to be a jerk either, like J-Pav said), I think this was an outlier and I can say without even playing through an entire season that this roster is far more likely to lose 90 games than ever approach 83 again.

[visick]

Ditto...