by edgecitytx » Sat May 22, 2010 1:15 am
Joe, thanks for posting. I know it's a lot of work, and I appreciate it. It's great stuff. And I think they're basically accurate, especially as pertains to team weaknesses. I'm not as sure of their accuracy on team season predictions because I think your system, like mine (based on a simplified version of one Luckyman gave me years ago), or the CDrom, does well as long as teams are predictable in what they do. But the CD stopped working for me as far as team predictions once a) everyone got good and b) people began using matchup pitchers and matchup players, using everyone on their roster. Brandon Duckworth went 69-34 for me last year. I know W/L stats are overrated and basically irrelevant, but 69-34! I don't know a system that predicts that. So I just use team analysis on an individual basis, looking for strengths and weaknesses, not to predict teams against each other.
Because I don't like to put out the same 9 or 10 players every day, and because I like to use hitters parks where the difference between Harden and Duckworth isn't as great as you'd think, I think it's hard to predict my kind of teams. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't.
I'm not saying you're off here, looks pretty dead on to me, and I'm not in a hitters park here (well, like US Cell, my usual home).
I also want to say I think your ratings are great. As my time here has gotten more limited over the years, if I didn't already have Lucky's work, I'd definitely go to you, and I recommend you to anyone who doesn't have the time to do it themselves, or to anyone new, because it's a great way to see how much difference a park can make.
thanks again.