May/June 2010 League

[joethejet]

Ok, some comments on edge's comments.

Totally true about the park for the hitters, but the pitchers do fit the park. And should be much better at home. And, sure enough, the ERA is 3 runs lower at home! :shock:

Offensively he's waay better on the road. That's where I think there's a problem. Even as RH'ed as he is, Pedrioa, Kemp, Longoria and Swisher shouldn't be < .200 at home. Heck, even in Petco they shouldn't be *that* bad. Definitely some bad luck there.

And, do you really think Adams should have a 6.81 ERA on the road? Not a chance. That's another area where the rating is off, with all the IP he's getting, the rating jumps up, but he's been horrible until lately and he's still garbage on the road.

Ratings next.

[joethejet]

Some caveats, these are adjusted for the parks you're plyaing in and pitching is per your usage so far. If that changes substantially then YMMV. Also there are a few teams that ahve made a ton of moves. Expect them to sink and their ratings may not be quite right because the pitching usage is off and I may have had to guess at the platoons.

Also, there are a LOT of LHP in this league so teams that hit LHP well will be higher than expected as the ratings expect a 70/30 split.

[b:836c17f8a7] Overall [/b:836c17f8a7]
[code:1:836c17f8a7]
Team Ov Ovrl Rtg Rec Dif
Winning 2400 1 5 -4 W
Elephnt 2306 2 7 -5 C
Winemen 2291 2 5 -3 C
Rangers 2269 3 7 -4 E
CoolCts 2193 5 5 0 E
Gillick 2173 5 5 0 W
ValleyG 2116 6 3 3 W
ByeBye. 2071 7 6 1 E
OrangeM 2061 7 2 5 C
Steibs. 2008 8 6 2 C
Metropl 1944 9 9 0 W
Ardous. 1434 12 9 3 E
[/code:1:836c17f8a7]

Ratings are bit upside down right now, but it's still really early. I don't usually do them this early. The ratings would expect Winning, Elephants, Winemn and Rangers to be the four playoff teams.

Orangmen are playin way over their heads although because they rip LHP, they shoudl do better than the ratings say.

Valley is a little over and Arduous will stay at the bottom.

[b:836c17f8a7] Offense [/b:836c17f8a7][code:1:836c17f8a7]
Team Of O Rtg Run Dif
CoolCts 8323 1 2 -1 E
Winning 7943 4 2 2 W
Rangers 7847 5 6 -1 E
OrangeM 7833 5 4 1 C
Winemen 7758 6 5 1 C
ValleyG 7724 6 2 4 W
Elephnt 7683 7 4 3 C
Gillick 7678 7 6 1 W
Metropl 7604 8 9 -1 W
Steibs. 7550 9 9 0 C
ByeBye. 7478 10 9 1 E
Ardous. 7188 12 10 2 E
[/code:1:836c17f8a7]

Overall offenses are peforming close to expected. Valley and Elephant are over.


[b:836c17f8a7]Pitching/Fielding[/b:836c17f8a7]
[code:1:836c17f8a7]Team PF P+F Rtg Run Dif
Elephnt 5377 1 10 -9 C
ByeBye. 5407 1 4 -3 E
Winemen 5468 4 6 -2 C
Gillick 5505 4 4 0 W
Steibs. 5541 4 6 -2 C
Winning 5542 5 7 -2 W
Rangers 5578 5 6 -1 E
ValleyG 5608 5 3 2 W
Metropl 5660 7 5 2 W
Ardous. 5754 9 9 0 E
OrangeM 5772 9 1 8 C
CoolCts 6130 12 10 2 E
[/code:1:836c17f8a7]

As stated in my previous note, the elephants are jeckel and hyde home/road. The Road pitching should get better than it's been as they are WAAAY off right now. Conversely Orangmen's pitchign isn't near this good. After all, he's playing in Fenway, there should be a LOT of hits in that park even if there aren't a lot of HRs.

Bye Bye and Winemen's pitching should get better, same for Steibss and Winning.
[b:836c17f8a7]Everything in one list[/b:836c17f8a7]
[code:1:836c17f8a7]
Team O P F P+F Overall Div
Winning 7943 5063 479 5542 2400 W
Elephnt 7683 5180 197 5377 2306 C
Winemen 7758 4906 562 5468 2291 C
Rangers 7847 5109 469 5578 2269 E
CoolCts 8323 5437 693 6130 2193 E
Gillick 7678 5155 350 5505 2173 W
ValleyG 7724 5259 349 5608 2116 W
ByeBye. 7478 4754 652 5407 2071 E
OrangeM 7833 5317 455 5772 2061 C
Steibs. 7550 5104 437 5541 2008 C
Metropl 7604 5055 605 5660 1944 W
arduous 7188 5328 427 5754 1434 E
[/code:1:836c17f8a7]

Here's everything combined. Fielding is the only thing we didn't talk about.

Elephants ahve great fielding, one thing that should be helping their pitching regardless of park. Valley and Gillick also have very good D. On the other end, BybeBye and cool Cats not so much, but I've seen much worse.

It's early as I said, The w/l can change fast there are 8 teams between 24 and 30 wins.

jet
www.angelfire.com/games5/joethejet

[J-Pav]

Thx for posting [b:a710217321]Joe[/b:a710217321] -

Rzepczynski and Marmol are wearing clown shoes still. If I can get them to cooperate, I might be able to knock off half a run per game and start moving up.

I'd like to live up to the ratings! :D

[edgecitytx]

Joe, thanks for posting. I know it's a lot of work, and I appreciate it. It's great stuff. And I think they're basically accurate, especially as pertains to team weaknesses. I'm not as sure of their accuracy on team season predictions because I think your system, like mine (based on a simplified version of one Luckyman gave me years ago), or the CDrom, does well as long as teams are predictable in what they do. But the CD stopped working for me as far as team predictions once a) everyone got good and b) people began using matchup pitchers and matchup players, using everyone on their roster. Brandon Duckworth went 69-34 for me last year. I know W/L stats are overrated and basically irrelevant, but 69-34! I don't know a system that predicts that. So I just use team analysis on an individual basis, looking for strengths and weaknesses, not to predict teams against each other.

Because I don't like to put out the same 9 or 10 players every day, and because I like to use hitters parks where the difference between Harden and Duckworth isn't as great as you'd think, I think it's hard to predict my kind of teams. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't.

I'm not saying you're off here, looks pretty dead on to me, and I'm not in a hitters park here (well, like US Cell, my usual home).

I also want to say I think your ratings are great. As my time here has gotten more limited over the years, if I didn't already have Lucky's work, I'd definitely go to you, and I recommend you to anyone who doesn't have the time to do it themselves, or to anyone new, because it's a great way to see how much difference a park can make.

thanks again.

[edgecitytx]

Also, glad to see the Elephants doing better. You're right, they're not playing up to their potential, but maybe they're beginning to. The staff is great, and yes, for their park. And Adams is great and will be (though I'm reminded constantly in Strat how small the sample is for Relief pitchers).

I'm not as sure as you are about how great they are away from home, though. That may be true in your division, but the rest of the league puts them in the same no LH hitter mold. Not saying they can't win, but it's a lot harder when your hitters don't fit the park.

I think your system overrates them. We'll see who's right.

Thanks for posting great food for thought.

edge

[Buckz]

Hello everyone~

I've been playing Strat-O for a long time, but somehow it's my first time to check the forums. First of all. thank you Joe for the great ratings and I think it's very interesting. Obviously my team (Orangemen) is playing better than I expected, especially my pitchers. My team plays small ball in Fenway. I have most SBs, Sac Bunts and H&Rs. Are these attributes included in the offense ratings ?

[joethejet]

Buck,

SBs are included. H&R is generally a bad play unless you have a no-hit, high DP hitter and a high K pitcher in play.

Ok, I have to vent. We've lost 9 of 11 series including getting swept 3 times and 2 of the last three series. Even lost a series to Arduous and that team is 18 Mil or more under the cap!

This is friggin' ridiculous. No way I should be this bad for this long. Pathetic luck right now.

Correia, and Lannan have been bad. Sanches isn't this bad. Johson has been good, but is 9-9, Beckett has been decent, but is 6-8. White is one of the few bright spots in the pitching. This pitching staff in this park shouldn't ever been the second worse staff in the league. Brutal.

As for the hitting, overall there are some bright spots, but our 3-4-5 hitters of Choo, Lee and McCann are all pretty pathetic. McCann in particular has been bad.

AAAAAAAGGGGGGGHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!! This has got to stop.

Jet

[J-Pav]

[b:82a054b993]Joe[/b:82a054b993],

My first three or four 2009 teams had the same luck your team is demonstrating, only mine went the entire season - if my teams are any indication, you can sit back and relax. It won't be getting any better, so there's no need to stress over it! :P

[joethejet]

Well, maybe you're right, got swept AGAIN :evil: :evil: :evil: last night f'ing ridiculous. Gave up 22 runs to the Rangers who are a middle of the pack offense. :roll: Correia's ERA is nearing 8.00. :cry: Meanwhile the Orangemen's Randy Johnson and Brett Tomko are off the charts pitching in a hitter's park. :roll: Go figure. Just so realistic this game is. :roll: We've lost six in a row and 11 of 12! :shock: This team is just not a bad team. Only BAD teams should lose that many in a row. Pathetic.

Oh, and lost Cano for 3 games too. The max for him.

Well, it'll turn around, we'll have a few die rolls coming our way. Every night I figure we'll get it goign again, but this is just getting stupid.

jet
www.angelfire.com/games5/joethejet

[joethejet]

Well, hopefully last night was the beginning of the turn around. Don't want to get too exicted however. Have to face the Gillicks tonight.

Jet
www.angelfire.com/games5/joethejet