not convinced yet. Won 2, but lost the third in extras.
Got the fingers crossed.
May/June 2010 League
by joethejet » Mon May 31, 2010 12:50 am
i guess no one else want to post so I'll use this as my own private rant-board.
So, we've won 3 of 4 series, BUT, what gives witht he injuries? Correia has already missed two starts and Choo, a one injury guy, has gone down 4 times! :roll: :shock: two three gamers (his max) and two two gamers.
yeesh.
Course, Correia still has an ERA > 7 so maybe Gonzalez isn't so bad....Yeah, right. :roll:
Jet
So, we've won 3 of 4 series, BUT, what gives witht he injuries? Correia has already missed two starts and Choo, a one injury guy, has gone down 4 times! :roll: :shock: two three gamers (his max) and two two gamers.
yeesh.
Course, Correia still has an ERA > 7 so maybe Gonzalez isn't so bad....Yeah, right. :roll:
Jet
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by joethejet » Mon May 31, 2010 12:57 am
Meanwhile, the Orangemen, a completely average club, is playing near 700 ball. :roll: Talk about playing over you heads. That team just isn't that good.
No way in H*** that team should be hitting that well v RHP or the crappy ptichers having those ERAs.
BUT, it *IS* a dice game. These anomalies will happen.
Jet
No way in H*** that team should be hitting that well v RHP or the crappy ptichers having those ERAs.
BUT, it *IS* a dice game. These anomalies will happen.
Jet
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by edgecitytx » Tue Jun 01, 2010 4:34 pm
Sorry, been out of town. It's a strange league, Jet, but it isn't just your team. I'm 6th in hitting, and my pitching is ahead of yours, the absolute opposites of what you or I would have picked. I'm having trouble figuring out this year so far anyway, especially hitting. I won 104 games with a team I thought was mediocre, have struggled with teams I was sure of. I'm starting to think maybe I'm missing something in my calculations relative to this year.
As for the Orangemen, the longer .700 goes on, the more I start to look for things I might have missed. It's a great league for Randy Johnson, only 2 parks that can hurt him badly and half the league is made up of heavily slanted LH parks. Same for Tomko as a reverse righty. Santana I can't explain at all, but his bullpen is great and he's getting them lots of innings.
Don't know why his hitting's better than mine.
If he's going to come to earth, he better do it soon, or it won't make any difference.
As for the Orangemen, the longer .700 goes on, the more I start to look for things I might have missed. It's a great league for Randy Johnson, only 2 parks that can hurt him badly and half the league is made up of heavily slanted LH parks. Same for Tomko as a reverse righty. Santana I can't explain at all, but his bullpen is great and he's getting them lots of innings.
Don't know why his hitting's better than mine.
If he's going to come to earth, he better do it soon, or it won't make any difference.
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by joethejet » Wed Jun 02, 2010 12:56 am
Well, what you say is true. There are some mitigating factors with the Orangemen that may make them a little better than their rating. No way, no how is that team going to win 70% of their games in league after league even with the same park makeup.
There are always a team or two that do better than expected. Some times much better. This is one of those teams for sure. 113 wins? Nope, not that good a team. I'm betting Buck would say the same. Not a horrible team, but a middle of the pack team with, if things go right, a playoff team.
I figure we won't be able to catch them, looking at the WC at this point. You never know, but that's the best bet.
There are always a team or two that do better than expected. Some times much better. This is one of those teams for sure. 113 wins? Nope, not that good a team. I'm betting Buck would say the same. Not a horrible team, but a middle of the pack team with, if things go right, a playoff team.
I figure we won't be able to catch them, looking at the WC at this point. You never know, but that's the best bet.
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by edgecitytx » Wed Jun 02, 2010 4:53 pm
Jet, of course the Orangemen aren't a .700 team, but the season isn't close to over yet. But I'm not convinced they're a mediocre team either, or the kind of anomaly you think.
Your system is great for evaluating individual players, as is mine/Lucky's, or J-Pav's. But I think it's harder to evaluate teams and predict team performance.
There are a million ways to win at this game, and you can't build a perfect 80M team, if you're in a league with other good players. If you could, J-Pav's Secret Formula teams would dominate every time, but they don't.
What the systems can't do is predict unpredictability, whether it's from the Antiquators of the the world dropping their team into oblivion, or from inventive players finding new ways of doing things.
And I also think there are things our systems underrate, maybe because of the either/or factor of batters/pitchers cards (rather than Fielder facing Cliff Lee, you have either Fielder batting or Lee pitching), but that's a topic for another discussion.
When I start seeing anomalies on a regular basis, they don't feel all that anomalous.
Except for my hitting. Now that's an anomaly.
:roll:
Your system is great for evaluating individual players, as is mine/Lucky's, or J-Pav's. But I think it's harder to evaluate teams and predict team performance.
There are a million ways to win at this game, and you can't build a perfect 80M team, if you're in a league with other good players. If you could, J-Pav's Secret Formula teams would dominate every time, but they don't.
What the systems can't do is predict unpredictability, whether it's from the Antiquators of the the world dropping their team into oblivion, or from inventive players finding new ways of doing things.
And I also think there are things our systems underrate, maybe because of the either/or factor of batters/pitchers cards (rather than Fielder facing Cliff Lee, you have either Fielder batting or Lee pitching), but that's a topic for another discussion.
When I start seeing anomalies on a regular basis, they don't feel all that anomalous.
Except for my hitting. Now that's an anomaly.
:roll:
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by joethejet » Thu Jun 03, 2010 2:45 pm
Well, the anomaly is that he is 8-2 in xtras and 21-6 in one run games.
If you can get a 4.30 ERa and a 9-3 record from a .80 guy or a 2.55 ERA with a 10-6 record from a 3.04 price either he's severely underpriced or you're lucky.
If your team has almost no power v RHP and yet you still have a 439 slugging v RHP in Fenway, you're lucky.
When Justin Upton who plays in a homer park in real life, hits 21 at this poin in the season in Fenway, and he hit 26 all of last season, you're lucky.
He has one player, Polanco, who you can truly say is underperforming. That's luck.
This is a middling team, possible playoff team with the right park and the right matchups. Not a kick a** team that runs away with a division. He has a 35-13 road record for Pete's sake that's just ridiculous. I don't think this team in this league would ever come close to matchign this performance again. It's an outlier for sure.
You're right that no system can factor in hot dice. It *can* however tell you when you're getting hot dice! ;)
And, yes, your team is a much better hitting team than it's showed.
Jet
If you can get a 4.30 ERa and a 9-3 record from a .80 guy or a 2.55 ERA with a 10-6 record from a 3.04 price either he's severely underpriced or you're lucky.
If your team has almost no power v RHP and yet you still have a 439 slugging v RHP in Fenway, you're lucky.
When Justin Upton who plays in a homer park in real life, hits 21 at this poin in the season in Fenway, and he hit 26 all of last season, you're lucky.
He has one player, Polanco, who you can truly say is underperforming. That's luck.
This is a middling team, possible playoff team with the right park and the right matchups. Not a kick a** team that runs away with a division. He has a 35-13 road record for Pete's sake that's just ridiculous. I don't think this team in this league would ever come close to matchign this performance again. It's an outlier for sure.
You're right that no system can factor in hot dice. It *can* however tell you when you're getting hot dice! ;)
And, yes, your team is a much better hitting team than it's showed.
Jet
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by joethejet » Fri Jun 04, 2010 12:05 am
Well, he must have the best team ever, we got swept by them tonight. Johnson gets another win blanking us over 5 IP. Even with six (!) straight HRs on his cards, no one seems able to roll it. Crazy lucky. Oh, and that's not even counting the 8 bp hrs. We didn't even have a chance at the 1-7 HR in Fenway.
They also have a knack for not leaving runners on, consolidating all their hits into one inning. He left 10 guys on base in three games and scored 16 runs. We left 22 in scoring 10 runs.
Oh, and the game he only scored 2? We got shut out by Johnson and Feliz leaving 7 OB.
Meanwhile Correia, continues with a 7+ ERA. WE know he's a LOT worse than Johnson is. :roll:
Oh, and did I meantion that Upton is on pace for 37 HRs? And Blake is on pace for 27 despite hitting only 16 for LA? Remember they're both RH'ed playing in a 1-7 park, in a divison with no other park > 6 and in a league with few RH HR parks.
Yep, this team is just this good. One of the best teams I've ever seen. :roll: :lol:
It'd be funny if it wasn't so ridiculous. SOM can be VERY unrealistic at times. Those dice just aren't predictable.
They also have a knack for not leaving runners on, consolidating all their hits into one inning. He left 10 guys on base in three games and scored 16 runs. We left 22 in scoring 10 runs.
Oh, and the game he only scored 2? We got shut out by Johnson and Feliz leaving 7 OB.
Meanwhile Correia, continues with a 7+ ERA. WE know he's a LOT worse than Johnson is. :roll:
Oh, and did I meantion that Upton is on pace for 37 HRs? And Blake is on pace for 27 despite hitting only 16 for LA? Remember they're both RH'ed playing in a 1-7 park, in a divison with no other park > 6 and in a league with few RH HR parks.
Yep, this team is just this good. One of the best teams I've ever seen. :roll: :lol:
It'd be funny if it wasn't so ridiculous. SOM can be VERY unrealistic at times. Those dice just aren't predictable.
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by edgecitytx » Sat Jun 05, 2010 11:25 am
I agree with you about his hitters, and of course the one run games.
Don't agree with you about the pitching. I get those kind of results all the time, and this season, in the right parks, sure, I'd take Randy over Correja.
So far this year, on completed teams, I have Detwiler 19-14 4.11 1.42 and De la rosa 36-28 4.12 1.37. Masterson's 39-20 4.43 1.40, Marquis 28-22 4.10 1.37. All in US Cell. You may think they're anomalies, I think they're good matchups.
Sometimes you're right, it's just the dice rolls. But sometimes, it's not.
Don't agree with you about the pitching. I get those kind of results all the time, and this season, in the right parks, sure, I'd take Randy over Correja.
So far this year, on completed teams, I have Detwiler 19-14 4.11 1.42 and De la rosa 36-28 4.12 1.37. Masterson's 39-20 4.43 1.40, Marquis 28-22 4.10 1.37. All in US Cell. You may think they're anomalies, I think they're good matchups.
Sometimes you're right, it's just the dice rolls. But sometimes, it's not.
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