Oh, Correja for me: 2-6, 5.86, 1.58. I know that's anecdotal evidence, but I'll take all those guys I mentioned in the last post over him, as long as the situation is right. I think this is a great league for Randy, and if Buckz wants to trade him, I'll take him in a heartbeat.
I know you're a great player, one of the best. But other ways of winning work too.
May/June 2010 League
by joethejet » Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Well, if you can pay .80 for Johnson in any park and get those results from a guy who posted nearly a 5.00 ERA in real life and gave up a TON of HRs and he's giving up fewer HRs than Correia, that's luck. He's given up 13 HRs of which only 8 have been hit by RHB, this is in 274 batters. That's 3%. On his card alone, he should have around 8% HRs. You really think that the guys he's facing have 0 % chance of HRs on their cards? His average against is .303 but yet his ERA is 4.08. Correia, who has 1.5% chance of giving a HR to LHB has given up 4.7% HRs and RHBs have a .343 average against. Even if you rolled on the hitter's card EVERY time against him you shouldn't have that average.
Tomko is another guy. He has OVER 10 REAL HRs on his card and 8 BPs. He should give up 12% hrs on his card (using 1/3 bp hrs are homers). He's given up 5.5% HRs v RHP. Again, 0% chance of RHBs hitting HRs on their own cards? And his WHIP is almost the same as in real life, playing in a singles haven that is Fenway?
And, again, he has one player who is under performing. You know that this is highly improbable in TSN. You always have a couple of hitters and a couple of pitchers who don't give you what you expect.
Look, I'm not saying that he doesn't have good matchups or that the team doesn't fit the parks, I'm saying no way in heck, this team should be running away with anything. Battling for a playoff spot? Sure. A 667 win pct? That's dice. Pure and simple.
I'm tired of talking about that team. I think it's a HUGE anomaly, but it happens in TSN from time-to-time so, such is life. Hopefully my next team is one of those! :) We'll see how they finish up in the last 63 games.
In the mean time, my team just must not be very good. I think our pitching should be better, but really we just can't seem to find a way to win. Our 3-4-5 of Choo, Lee and McCann just haven't performed and they definitely have flaws. Going 2-7 in Extras has been brutal too. A lot of tough losses.
We still have a shot at making the playoffs, but we're going to have to play a lot better than we have of late.
Oh, and have you noticed that the Elephants are over .500 and contending for the WC?
Tomko is another guy. He has OVER 10 REAL HRs on his card and 8 BPs. He should give up 12% hrs on his card (using 1/3 bp hrs are homers). He's given up 5.5% HRs v RHP. Again, 0% chance of RHBs hitting HRs on their own cards? And his WHIP is almost the same as in real life, playing in a singles haven that is Fenway?
And, again, he has one player who is under performing. You know that this is highly improbable in TSN. You always have a couple of hitters and a couple of pitchers who don't give you what you expect.
Look, I'm not saying that he doesn't have good matchups or that the team doesn't fit the parks, I'm saying no way in heck, this team should be running away with anything. Battling for a playoff spot? Sure. A 667 win pct? That's dice. Pure and simple.
I'm tired of talking about that team. I think it's a HUGE anomaly, but it happens in TSN from time-to-time so, such is life. Hopefully my next team is one of those! :) We'll see how they finish up in the last 63 games.
In the mean time, my team just must not be very good. I think our pitching should be better, but really we just can't seem to find a way to win. Our 3-4-5 of Choo, Lee and McCann just haven't performed and they definitely have flaws. Going 2-7 in Extras has been brutal too. A lot of tough losses.
We still have a shot at making the playoffs, but we're going to have to play a lot better than we have of late.
Oh, and have you noticed that the Elephants are over .500 and contending for the WC?
- joethejet
- Posts: 55
- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
by edgecitytx » Mon Jun 07, 2010 6:04 pm
Ok, we agree, the Omen should not be running away with anything.
And yes, the Elephants are doing great and before long will be in division play which is not so heavily LH so should stay a threat.
And yes, the Elephants are doing great and before long will be in division play which is not so heavily LH so should stay a threat.
- edgecitytx
- Posts: 55
- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
by joethejet » Tue Jun 08, 2010 2:55 pm
Hey Edge,
Don't misunderstand, I'm enjoying our discussion. It's fun to talk about different strategies and I appreciate your comments and his team probably is a better fit than I orginally gave him credit for.
Updating the ratings soon. We'll see how things have changed!
Jet
Don't misunderstand, I'm enjoying our discussion. It's fun to talk about different strategies and I appreciate your comments and his team probably is a better fit than I orginally gave him credit for.
Updating the ratings soon. We'll see how things have changed!
Jet
- joethejet
- Posts: 55
- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
by edgecitytx » Wed Jun 09, 2010 9:25 am
Me too, Jet. You're one of the most knowledgeable players here and I've enjoyed the conversation.
I've been in and out of town the last couple weeks, and will be through next Tuesday, but after that, maybe we can discuss pitching a little. We basically agree on hitters, I think (Upton and Blake should not hit as well v. R and aren't in any other league I've seen). And I'm guessing my/Lucky's ratings for pitchers are similiar to yours. But every year there are pitchers who (in the right circumstances) consistently outperform the ratings and I think it's worth a discussion why.
The only surprise to me with Johnson/Tomko is that he's able to do it with them being part of a five man rotation. If I had Randy, I'd probably only throw him against 4 teams (5 if you count mine), and Tomko against 7, but because of the makeup of the league, they don't really hurt him except away against the Gatos and the Antiquaters (and the Antiquaters can't really hurt much of anybody).
Again, I think your individual ratings are great, and so are your individual team analyses. Your team v team ratings are fine if you have a league full of Winemen, J-Pavs, and LM Bombers, great players who put together a set lineup and rotation from beginning to end and dare you to beat them. But it doesn't take into account the unexpected, whether that's players who drop too much or players who matchup and make moves to counter their opponents.
As for my team, it should have been more balanced and I pretty much knew that from the start, wanted to see what would happen in this particular league if I didn't, was just too tempted by LvL. Still contemplating a move to correct that, though I hate to make any big moves late except out of desperation and I'm not there yet.
When you update your ratings, do you account for our opponents the rest of the way? In the wild card race, your division has no weak teams and that has to hurt all of you.
Talk to you soon. Edge
I've been in and out of town the last couple weeks, and will be through next Tuesday, but after that, maybe we can discuss pitching a little. We basically agree on hitters, I think (Upton and Blake should not hit as well v. R and aren't in any other league I've seen). And I'm guessing my/Lucky's ratings for pitchers are similiar to yours. But every year there are pitchers who (in the right circumstances) consistently outperform the ratings and I think it's worth a discussion why.
The only surprise to me with Johnson/Tomko is that he's able to do it with them being part of a five man rotation. If I had Randy, I'd probably only throw him against 4 teams (5 if you count mine), and Tomko against 7, but because of the makeup of the league, they don't really hurt him except away against the Gatos and the Antiquaters (and the Antiquaters can't really hurt much of anybody).
Again, I think your individual ratings are great, and so are your individual team analyses. Your team v team ratings are fine if you have a league full of Winemen, J-Pavs, and LM Bombers, great players who put together a set lineup and rotation from beginning to end and dare you to beat them. But it doesn't take into account the unexpected, whether that's players who drop too much or players who matchup and make moves to counter their opponents.
As for my team, it should have been more balanced and I pretty much knew that from the start, wanted to see what would happen in this particular league if I didn't, was just too tempted by LvL. Still contemplating a move to correct that, though I hate to make any big moves late except out of desperation and I'm not there yet.
When you update your ratings, do you account for our opponents the rest of the way? In the wild card race, your division has no weak teams and that has to hurt all of you.
Talk to you soon. Edge
- edgecitytx
- Posts: 55
- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
by joethejet » Thu Jun 10, 2010 4:22 pm
Overall
I grabbed all these numbers the other day so things may have changed a little.
[code:1:e1e9ffe326]
Team O P F P+F Overall Div
Winning 7943 5029 479 5508 2434 W
Elephnt 7683 5160 197 5357 2326 C
Winemen 7758 4906 562 5468 2291 C
Rangers 7847 5106 469 5575 2272 E
CoolCts 8229 5434 594 6028 2201 E
Gillick 7678 5201 350 5551 2127 W
ValleyG 7724 5258 349 5607 2117 W
OrangeM 7833 5272 455 5727 2106 C
ByeBye. 7478 4754 652 5407 2071 E
Steibs. 7550 5122 437 5559 1991 C
Metropl 7604 5070 605 5675 1929 W
arduous 7112 5500 753 6254 859 E
Team Ov Ovrl Rtg Rec Dif
Winning 2434 1 4 -3 W
Elephnt 2326 2 4 -2 C
Winemen 2291 2 3 -1 C
Rangers 2272 3 7 -4 E
CoolCts 2201 5 4 1 E
Gillick 2127 6 3 3 W
ValleyG 2117 6 4 2 W
OrangeM 2106 6 1 5 C
ByeBye. 2071 7 3 4 E
Steibs. 1991 8 4 4 C
Metropl 1929 9 9 0 W
arduous 859 12 12 0 E
[/code:1:e1e9ffe326]
Interesting to me that the ratings for the top teams are still not totally reflected. Elephants I can understand a little due to their LH killing lineup and home field pitching team and the Rangers are the same type of team. Winning's pitching as serverly underperformed. e.g Bailey has 13 blow saves.
It is the case that the Wins and ratings are actually very close with eight teams within 5 wins of each other so that can change a lot still.
Orange, Bye bye and Steibs are over performing. Orange's hitting and pitching are above where they should be. All three teams are at least 10 games over in one run games which is an indicator of lucky breaks. Orange is an amazing +15. :shock: Part of Elephants problem is that they are -10. :shock: ouch.
As for Arduous, their salary is now at 52.06, or almost 28 mil under the cap. You just CAN'T compete when you do that. Heck, you probably couldn't compete in a $60 mil league with that salary.
[code:1:e1e9ffe326]
Offense
Team Of O Rtg Run Dif
CoolCts 8229 1 2 -1 E
Winning 7943 4 2 2 W
Rangers 7847 5 8 -3 E
OrangeM 7833 5 1 4 C
Winemen 7758 6 3 3 C
ValleyG 7724 6 6 0 W
Elephnt 7683 7 5 2 C
Gillick 7678 7 7 0 W
Metropl 7604 8 10 -2 W
Steibs. 7550 9 8 1 C
ByeBye. 7478 10 9 1 E
arduous 7112 12 12 0 E
[/code:1:e1e9ffe326]
Other than the Orangeman (over) and the Rangers (under) offensively teams are fairly close.
[code:1:e1e9ffe326]
Team PF P+F Rtg Run Dif
Elephnt 5357 1 7 -6 C
ByeBye. 5407 2 1 1 E
Winemen 5468 3 7 -4 C
Winning 5508 4 11 -7 W
Gillick 5551 5 3 2 W
Steibs. 5559 5 6 -1 C
Rangers 5575 5 9 -4 E
ValleyG 5607 6 6 0 W
Metropl 5675 8 4 4 W
OrangeM 5727 9 4 5 C
CoolCts 6028 10 10 0 E
arduous 6254 12 12 0 E
[/code:1:e1e9ffe326]
Pitching is more out of whack. Elephant can be somewhat explained by their horrible road pitching. Yeah, they shouldn't be good, but a 5.06 ERA is a little extreme especially when his bullpen of Adams, Coffey and coke haven't been very good on the road. They should be OK, especially Adams. Also, teams with really good D can be hit and miss. The area of the ratings that seems to vary the most is D. i would suggest that he hasn't had much luck on the X-Chart.
Winning, Wineman, and the Rangers are also below expected. The biggest flaws for the Winemen are Correia and Sanches who just havent' been close to what they should be. Sanches also has a lot of IP. O-man are, of course, over, but so are the Metros. I would suggest that the Metros ahve been lucky on the X-chart as their D is pretty weak.
Enough for now.
Jet
www.angelfire.com/games5/joethejet
I grabbed all these numbers the other day so things may have changed a little.
[code:1:e1e9ffe326]
Team O P F P+F Overall Div
Winning 7943 5029 479 5508 2434 W
Elephnt 7683 5160 197 5357 2326 C
Winemen 7758 4906 562 5468 2291 C
Rangers 7847 5106 469 5575 2272 E
CoolCts 8229 5434 594 6028 2201 E
Gillick 7678 5201 350 5551 2127 W
ValleyG 7724 5258 349 5607 2117 W
OrangeM 7833 5272 455 5727 2106 C
ByeBye. 7478 4754 652 5407 2071 E
Steibs. 7550 5122 437 5559 1991 C
Metropl 7604 5070 605 5675 1929 W
arduous 7112 5500 753 6254 859 E
Team Ov Ovrl Rtg Rec Dif
Winning 2434 1 4 -3 W
Elephnt 2326 2 4 -2 C
Winemen 2291 2 3 -1 C
Rangers 2272 3 7 -4 E
CoolCts 2201 5 4 1 E
Gillick 2127 6 3 3 W
ValleyG 2117 6 4 2 W
OrangeM 2106 6 1 5 C
ByeBye. 2071 7 3 4 E
Steibs. 1991 8 4 4 C
Metropl 1929 9 9 0 W
arduous 859 12 12 0 E
[/code:1:e1e9ffe326]
Interesting to me that the ratings for the top teams are still not totally reflected. Elephants I can understand a little due to their LH killing lineup and home field pitching team and the Rangers are the same type of team. Winning's pitching as serverly underperformed. e.g Bailey has 13 blow saves.
It is the case that the Wins and ratings are actually very close with eight teams within 5 wins of each other so that can change a lot still.
Orange, Bye bye and Steibs are over performing. Orange's hitting and pitching are above where they should be. All three teams are at least 10 games over in one run games which is an indicator of lucky breaks. Orange is an amazing +15. :shock: Part of Elephants problem is that they are -10. :shock: ouch.
As for Arduous, their salary is now at 52.06, or almost 28 mil under the cap. You just CAN'T compete when you do that. Heck, you probably couldn't compete in a $60 mil league with that salary.
[code:1:e1e9ffe326]
Offense
Team Of O Rtg Run Dif
CoolCts 8229 1 2 -1 E
Winning 7943 4 2 2 W
Rangers 7847 5 8 -3 E
OrangeM 7833 5 1 4 C
Winemen 7758 6 3 3 C
ValleyG 7724 6 6 0 W
Elephnt 7683 7 5 2 C
Gillick 7678 7 7 0 W
Metropl 7604 8 10 -2 W
Steibs. 7550 9 8 1 C
ByeBye. 7478 10 9 1 E
arduous 7112 12 12 0 E
[/code:1:e1e9ffe326]
Other than the Orangeman (over) and the Rangers (under) offensively teams are fairly close.
[code:1:e1e9ffe326]
Team PF P+F Rtg Run Dif
Elephnt 5357 1 7 -6 C
ByeBye. 5407 2 1 1 E
Winemen 5468 3 7 -4 C
Winning 5508 4 11 -7 W
Gillick 5551 5 3 2 W
Steibs. 5559 5 6 -1 C
Rangers 5575 5 9 -4 E
ValleyG 5607 6 6 0 W
Metropl 5675 8 4 4 W
OrangeM 5727 9 4 5 C
CoolCts 6028 10 10 0 E
arduous 6254 12 12 0 E
[/code:1:e1e9ffe326]
Pitching is more out of whack. Elephant can be somewhat explained by their horrible road pitching. Yeah, they shouldn't be good, but a 5.06 ERA is a little extreme especially when his bullpen of Adams, Coffey and coke haven't been very good on the road. They should be OK, especially Adams. Also, teams with really good D can be hit and miss. The area of the ratings that seems to vary the most is D. i would suggest that he hasn't had much luck on the X-Chart.
Winning, Wineman, and the Rangers are also below expected. The biggest flaws for the Winemen are Correia and Sanches who just havent' been close to what they should be. Sanches also has a lot of IP. O-man are, of course, over, but so are the Metros. I would suggest that the Metros ahve been lucky on the X-chart as their D is pretty weak.
Enough for now.
Jet
www.angelfire.com/games5/joethejet
- joethejet
- Posts: 55
- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
by J-Pav » Sat Jun 12, 2010 7:07 pm
Sorry [b:d2b12a4fc0]Joe[/b:d2b12a4fc0],
Been away from the boards. I'm a former-Chicagoan and die-hard Blackhawks fan, and I've been pretty absorbed with the playoffs (and work).
My team, like several before it, has been a head scratcher. I keep waiting to break out, but...
Plus, I'm more than slightly superstitious about posting, so I haven't lately.
I have, however, completely enjoyed your rants! There's nothing worse than when HAL withholds the love from our best laid plans. It's sort of cathartic to relieve my own pressure by living vicariously through your frustration!!
:D
Been away from the boards. I'm a former-Chicagoan and die-hard Blackhawks fan, and I've been pretty absorbed with the playoffs (and work).
My team, like several before it, has been a head scratcher. I keep waiting to break out, but...
Plus, I'm more than slightly superstitious about posting, so I haven't lately.
I have, however, completely enjoyed your rants! There's nothing worse than when HAL withholds the love from our best laid plans. It's sort of cathartic to relieve my own pressure by living vicariously through your frustration!!
:D
- J-Pav
- Posts: 55
- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
by joethejet » Sun Jun 13, 2010 2:57 am
J,
Glad I've kept you entertained and congrats to your Hawks. I was hoping this was the Sharks' year, but no shame in losing to Chicago. I was really hoping they'd lose to the Canucks. :(
Your pitching isn't great, but it shouldn't be this bad. You've had your share of bad luck for sure. We're playing better of late, but have a big series with the O-Men next. His cheap, crappy pitching has come back to Earth somewhat, but we still have to prove we can beat them. We're 5-7 and need to win at least 2, if not all three to have any prayer of winning the division. We'll see if we can get lucky. :?
Jet
Glad I've kept you entertained and congrats to your Hawks. I was hoping this was the Sharks' year, but no shame in losing to Chicago. I was really hoping they'd lose to the Canucks. :(
Your pitching isn't great, but it shouldn't be this bad. You've had your share of bad luck for sure. We're playing better of late, but have a big series with the O-Men next. His cheap, crappy pitching has come back to Earth somewhat, but we still have to prove we can beat them. We're 5-7 and need to win at least 2, if not all three to have any prayer of winning the division. We'll see if we can get lucky. :?
Jet
- joethejet
- Posts: 55
- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
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