Kendry Morales goes down for more than 3 games

[KEVINEHLE]

Thanks Bernie. Just for the record, if this ONLY happens to Viz's teams, we're OK with that. :wink:

Kev

[ClowntimeIsOver]

[quote:1a14ce9616]The more I analyze my teams and boxscores, the more I get frustrated. Weird substitutions, 9R or 9L RP's seeing more of the opposite batters...etc. [/quote:1a14ce9616]

In yesterday's series, HAL did these two things to my team:

With two out and none on in the bottom of the ninth, trailing by one run, Omar Vizquel came to bat against RH Matt Mantei, who was at F9.
Against righties, switch-hitter Vizquel has 46.25 chances to get on base, plus (in this park) 1.75 bp = 48/108.
Against lefties, Mantei has 37.8 on-base chances plus 1.05 = 38.85/108.
Total: 86.85/216. (OBP .402) (Strictly speaking, it's 43.425/108.)
HAL chose to pinch-hit RH catcher John Flaherty for Vizquel. Against righties, Flaherty has 30.1 chances plus 3.15 = 33.25/108.
Against righties, Mantei has 20.5 plus 1.75 = 22.25.
Total: 55.5/216. (OBP .257)
So HAL decreases the chances of extending the game from 86.85 to 55.5 (36% worse). HAL pinch-hits a .257 combined-cards-OBP for a .402 combined-card-OBP. Un-freakin'-believable.

In another game, my "dud" in a 4-man rotation (S.Estes) started. I have him on quick hook and 6 IP maximum, but still, this looks wrong: He lets the first 4 batters in the game on base, and (via a HR) gives up 3 runs. Then he gets the next 6 straight outs. So he's pitched two complete with 4 base-runners and 3 runs. That happens all the time in SOM and real life, and no one ever pulls the pitcher, especially after six straight outs. It's a no-DH league: Estes's turn at bat comes up in the third, with two out and no one on. HAL pinch-hits Kevin Stocker (0.54m bench guy). In the remaining six innings, my three relievers (unnecessarily wearing themselves out) give up 4 more runs. SERIOUSLY? Pinch-hitting with none on in the third, after the pitcher gets 6 straight outs in a 3-0 game?

These are just the most recent examples. Of course, HAL always does weird things, but I agree with the quote above: the substitutions have been irrational this year in a way that's different from past years.

[MARCPELLETIER]

Wachovia,

I don't know about those cards, but what I do know is that, with 2 outs none on, what I would do as a coach is to bring in someone who can hit a homerun, not someone who will draw a walk (unless, perhaps, there is a distinct weakness on my adversary against stolen base, which is probably the case with Mantei, but then again, the hit probability is probably small). In any case, it's not a clear-cut decision to me.

[visick]

I'd have to agree. Flaherty has a better chance of hitting a HR than Vizquel.

[SGTD]

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/team/team_other.html?user_id=275396

I have AG at 1B and he played in 160 games and for me he has missed 8 games for me. SGT D

[ClowntimeIsOver]

[quote:7deae70571]bring in someone who can hit a homerun[/quote:7deae70571]

[quote:7deae70571]Flaherty has a better chance of hitting a HR than Vizquel.[/quote:7deae70571]

Thanks for responding. Although I included ballpark effects in my post, I didn't specify the park: Net Assc, where bphr = 7 for both LH and RH hitters. Thus, Flaherty/Mantei had a 1.7% chance (3.65/218) of hitting a HR, compared to Vizquel/Mantei's 0.8% chance (1.8/218). Compare this to Vizquel's 40.2% chance of keeping a 1-run game alive, and Flaherty's 25.7%. HAL, being a computer, should know better: it was a ridiculous pinch-hitting choice.

[Jerlins]

It's reared it's ugly head once more in our league. Morneau goes down for the 15 count :shock:

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/team/team_other.html?user_id=281657

[LANCEBOUSLEY]

morneau only has 580 pa's in 2--9

[Jerlins]

So he does, never even noticed...Obviously :oops: :oops: