Let's Play Two! League Chat

[joethejet]

Wow, it just keeps coming. Amazing really.

Lost a game last night on a 1-2 WP, then tonight, we blow two games in the 9th, losing on in extras. Wow, just amazingly bad. We must be the worst team ever.

[joethejet]

Wow, actually won 2 games tonight. Feels good after all the lost series'. Too many to go back and count.

After losing the first one in which he got 2 1-4 HRs and a 1-7 HR, WE ACTUALLY GOT A BREAK in game 3. Teixeira hit a 1-4 HR!!!!! :D :P Truly amazing. The SOM gods haven't totally left us!! ;)

Annnnnd, in game two, we had a chance to blow the save, but didnt'! After being 5 for 9 in save ops, we're now 8 for 12! Amazing, but true!

Woo Hoo, can't stop us now!

Jet

p.s. Is anyone actually reading this drivel?

[joethejet]

Hmm, I guess not, but I will continue anyway!

STOP THE PRESSES, Beantown has won five straight!!!! Amazing but true, we tried to give away game 2 in the 9th, but actually, amazingly enough, won in extra innings!!!

Of course, it will all end in the next series as we're not only playing at home where we've just sucked (7-17), but we're also playing the best team in the league, the Crabbers who have won 9 straight! :shock:

If you don't get those starters out of the game early enough, and they're pitching 80+% of the innings at this point, you have to face Hoffman. Camp has pitched over his head so far, but those SPs are certainly tough. My best SP ERA is only slightly better than his worst and the bottom three of Beckett, Correia and Lannan are at 4.63, 5.37 and 4.32. I guess Lannan isn't so far off, but the other two are not pitching well. Hopefully Sanches can turn it around also, we can't afford a 5.60 ERA from a guy who's eating up the RP innings!

Well, maybe we'll get lucky, but I'm not counting on it.

Jet
www.angelfire.com/games5/joethejet

[barnicle]

I keep waiting for the fun to end. Been lucky so far, even though I have good pitching and am in a pitcher friendly ballpark I have a much better record on the road, 16-5, than at home, 14-13. Doesn't make sense but I'll take it.

Longoria is injured for the next 2 games. He's my most productive hitter.

By the way, Nelson has pitched 1 inning and allowed 1 run and has a 9.09 ERA??? .09???

[joethejet]

Yeah, that's a weird road record. Helped, I'm sure, by playing us in our park where we just suck wind. Yeah, you're 5-1 in our park.

Tonight is a great example why. Sanches is just killing us. He's pitched well on two other teams, but not on this one. Brutal. We have a 5-3 lead in game 2, going to the 8th and Beckett and Sanches can't get it done. Five straight hit rolls off of your card and then finally a hit roll off of Sanches'. Nothing you can do. Doesn't matter WHO you had on the mound. Could have been Adams and it wouldn't have mattered. That's just SOM. I'm sure we've done that too.

Doesn't help that we lost Kapler for 7 in game 1 and then Morgan for 15 in game 2. We have such a big hole to dig out of, we need some good injury rolls. <sigh>

I think this team is doomed without something like a 10 game win streak or a 15 of 18 type thing.

Has anyone used Correia succesfully? I've had him on three teams now, including one that won a championship, and he's been awful on all three. His card isn't that bad, but boy has he been terrible.

You'd think in a singles park like we're playing in, our averages would be high, but we're pretty consistenly low. Very puzzling to me.

Jet
www.angelfire.com/games5/joethejet

[Jeepdriver]

I can't tell you how much bad luck my team has had thus far. Just a lot of quirky things have happened, including but not limited to Pujols hitting under .230 (if you can believe that), and Tejeda still looking for his first win.

So I'm not going to panic, and I really believe I'm better than my .500 record indicates thus far.

[joethejet]

I feel the same way Jeep, but this team completely collapsed in the last NLD so maybe there is something that makes Tex, Hudson, Kennedy, Borbon, Morales, Morgan all hit below .250 in a high singles park while this pitching staff posts a 4.77 ERA with all one's up the middle. <shrug>

Maybe I'm just wrong about this team.

Jet

[joethejet]

Well, we're playing better for the most part, but still just awful in close games and tend to leave a lot of guys on base. I think the hole we've dug is just too big.

I'll try to get some ratings up, but I know our team is WAAAAY under what the ratings will say.

Jet

[joethejet]

Hi Guys,

Here are the JoeTheJet Ratings for the league.

A couple of caveats first. The ratings assume a 70/30 split rh v lh so if your division/league are different then YMMV.

Also, the teams that have made lots of moves usually hurt themselves so their performance to date may actually be better then their rating. I also did this a couple days ago so I don't have all the last moves. For example Rollins is still on a team.

Actual RP and SP usage is taken into account and the ratings are for the parks you're playing in unique to your team.

Hitting- higher is better
Pitching and fielding, lower is better

[code:1:8d52fd6f28]
Team… ...O ...P ...F P+F Overall Div
Beantwn 7855 5024 398 5422 2433 C
Protect 7857 5087 472 5559 2298 W
SanJuan 7430 4754 456 5210 2221 C
DexterM 7226 4787 321 5108 2118 W
MysoreS 8121 5448 558 6006 2114 C
Kendall 7590 5220 287 5507 2082 E
Diamond 7713 5030 667 5697 2016 E
FaberCo 7605 4746 866 5613 1992 E
Chocolt 7692 5094 683 5778 1914 E
WineAnd 7603 4871 898 5769 1833 W
MooreLi 7835 5515 548 6063 1772 C
MotownJ 7472 5292 434 5725 1747 W
[/code:1:8d52fd6f28]

Some notes here.

the East is very balanced.

the Central is probably the best divisioin with three of the top five rated teams.

The West is, from a ratings perspective, 2 haves and 2 have nots.

The best fielding teams are Kendall, Dexter and Beantown. The worst, and they are pretty dang bad, are Faber and Wineanddine


Ratings would say that the East is a total toss up. I would expect that Faber will sink and Diamond will catch them. I'm not sure Kendall's pitching will come around enough to make up the hole they've dug. chocolate is living on better than expected pitching so I don't expect them to make much of a run.

Central
San Juan is getting way too much offense for their team and park, but their SPs have been lights out even including Dempster. I expect their O to cool off enough that Beantown or Mysore might get back into the race. Ratings say that Beantown would be the favorite, but San Juan isn't too far behind. Mysore should be a candidate for the WC, but ratings would say, they shouldn't catch either BT or SJ for the division

West
As stated, two very good teams, Protect and Dexter, two lousy teams Wineand and Motown. I expect the current split in the division to widen.

WC
Given the relative weakness of the West, you'd think Protect or Dexter are the likely WC. One of the three Central teams could sneak in there too. Faber will fall off the pace according to the ratings, but there is always one team that overperforms their rating by quite a bit (usually by winning tons of one run games) and one that underperforms by quite a bit. So far those two teams are Faber and BT. Although, it's hard to tell with Faber due to their moves.

See below for category comparisons.


[b:8d52fd6f28]Comparisons[/b:8d52fd6f28]
Overall

[code:1:8d52fd6f28]
Team Ov Ovrl Rtg Rec Dif
Beantwn 2433 1 8 -7 C
Protect 2298 2 6 -4 W
SanJuan 2221 3 1 2 C
DexterM 2118 5 5 0 W
MysoreS 2114 5 3 2 C
Kendall 2082 6 8 -2 E
Diamond 2016 7 3 4 E
FaberCo 1992 8 1 7 E
Chocolt 1914 9 8 1 E
WineAnd 1833 10 12 -2 W
MooreLi 1772 11 10 1 C
MotownJ 1747 11 9 2 W
[/code:1:8d52fd6f28]

Overall, we're well below wherethe ratings predict we should be. And Protect is also too low. Probably due to their lousy one run record.

Faber is WAAAAY over, but that's partially due to the moves that they have made. Right now their team is 4 mil under the cap including 1.5 sitting unused. they are also 25-9 in one run games, a sure sign of an overperforming team. The Diamond Kings are also a bit over, but that's mostly because Beantown and Protected are under.

[b:8d52fd6f28]Offense[/b:8d52fd6f28][code:1:8d52fd6f28]
Team Of .O Rtg Run Dif
MysoreS 8121 1 1 0 C
Protect 7857 4 6 -2 W
Beantwn 7855 4 4 0 C
MooreLi 7835 4 4 0 C
Diamond 7713 5 3 2 E
Chocolt 7692 6 8 -2 E
FaberCo 7605 8 3 5 E
WineAnd 7603 8 12 -4 W
Kendall 7590 8 6 2 E
MotownJ 7472 9 11 -2 W
SanJuan 7430 10 4 6 C
DexterM 7226 12 6 6 W
[/code:1:8d52fd6f28]

On offense, teams like San Juan and Dexter are quite a bit over as is Faber (already explained why there) San Juan simply has no business with those offensive numbers unless they are facing a large number of LHP. The are starting Suzuki, Polanco, Vizquel and Ordonez v RHP. Just nobe very good. Even Ibanez is not all that great. Dexter is even worse v RHP Not sure how they are scoring runs v RHP. They also have made some moves, currently 2+mil under the cap so maybe that's why the numbers are decieving.

On the other side really only WineAnd is very far under. His O isn't all that great, but it shouldn't be the worst in the league either.

[b:8d52fd6f28]Pitching and fielding[/b:8d52fd6f28]
[code:1:8d52fd6f28]
Team PF .P+F Rtg Run Dif
DexterM 5108 1 3 -2 W
SanJuan 5210 2 1 1 C
Beantwn 5422 4 8 -4 C
Kendall 5507 5 9 -4 E
Protect 5559 5 4 1 W
FaberCo 5613 6 7 -1 E
Diamond 5697 8 3 5 E
MotownJ 5725 8 7 1 W
WineAnd 5769 9 5 4 W
Chocolt 5778 9 5 4 E
MysoreS 6006 11 5 6 C
MooreLi 6063 12 12 0 C
[/code:1:8d52fd6f28]

The biggest differences appear on the other side. Pitching is out of whack. Fielding tends to be the biggest wild card as it comes down to luck when bad things happen.

Kendall and Beantown's pitching and D should be better, but clearly their D isn't doing as much as it could be.

On the otherside, Mysore has no business being that high. Wineand, Diamond and Chocloate are also too high. It will be interesting to see if they come down as time goes on or wether it's just a function of Beandown and Kendall getting better.

[bigmahon]

Hi Joe,

Thanks as always for the time you put into rating the league!

I'm having a deja vu of my own though. Your team is rated best, but under performing, and mine is rated bottom half but among the best in the league? Sound familiar? I thought the whole point of us being in this league was to try and replicate (as much as possible) our teams in NLD 24 and see if previous results were aberrational. You even named your team Deja Vu. :wink:

Well lo and behold we are seeing roughly the same dynamic. Granted, your team appears marginally better this time and mine marginally worse, but I expect results for the rest of this season to remain fairly consistent with the first 96 games, even if your ratings don't agree. And if we put the same teams in yet another league, we'd see the same again.

I really think your ratings are missing something crucial in terms of ranking teams in a league, as I said in the NLD chat last time. And evidence to support that view continues to mount. :wink:

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