Starting pitchers for AT&T

[BeltranFebles]

Please rank: Harden, Hanson, C Lee and Rzepczynski (or Razr as I like to call him).

Thanks.
TVF

[gbrookes]

For what it's worth - just my opinion and my half-baked method and math -

There are tons of variables - esp. with pitchers with extreme characteristics like Lee, Harden and Hanson. Of the 4 pitchers, only "ripsaw" (my nickname) is fairly even keel.

Based on a relatively normal distribution of hitters for lefties and righties, I would rate Hanson as the best overall. He has negatives, however - esp. his inability to hold runners. By contrast, Lee's ability to hold runners AND to induce batters into double plays is a huge upside for Lee. Lee kills lefties and does OK to nicely against RHB. Hanson kills RHB and does OK to nicely against lefties. Which is better will depend on the typical composition of your divisional rivals lineups, and to a lesser extent, the rest of the leagues lineups. If you have a high ratio of non-platooned, everyday lefty hitters, Lee could be dynamite, and the clear choice. Same idea for Hanson but in reverse.

Harden is not far behind Lee at AT&T. However, put Harden in a homerun park with lots of N hitters, and he falls far behind them. Harden is best in parks like Kauffman, Fenway and AT&T (in that order) where his very very high ballpark homerun count doesn't hurt quite as much. Also in these parks, his lack of ballpark singles against RHP is a huge plus for him. He was very effective for a team I had at Fenway. AT&T is not much different. BUT, the league I had him in was a $60 mil cap league, with more than the average number of W hitters starting. That also really minimized Harden's biggest weakness. If you are playing him on the road against a bunch of N hitters in a HR park, you need a super-quick hook and limit his innings. Get him out of there!

Ripsaw is also not far behind Lee and Harden. I think Ripsaw is one of the better bargains in the 2009 set, for the salary. Of the 4 pitchers, he probably is the one you might worry about least. A good bread and butter pitcher. Not many ballpark HRs, relatively even balance. He even induces a fair number of DPs (like Lee). However, at +2, his hold rating is worst except for Hanson, who is worse still. With the walks Ripsaw gives up, the +2 hold rating could hurt against a team of track stars. I have Ripsaw on at least one team, and liked what he produced for the team.

Overall, my choice would be based first of all on the composition of my rivals batting orders (mainly for Lee and Hanson), with a close second consideration being the type of ballparks my divisional rivals play in (HR or not, singles or not) (mostly for Harden), and to a lesser extent the lineup composition and ballpark effects for the rest of the league. Note, divisional effects are still important for 24 team leagues, but not as important as they are for 12 team leagues.

I realize that there are salary differences between the 4 pitchers. I am not going to try to evaluate that for you, except to say that you should consider the above factors, and then make a judgement call with the salary effect considered in your mind.

Hope this helps!! Geoff

[gbrookes]

One more disadvantage for Harden - poor defense. Not a huge factor, but a small factor.