Let's Play Two! League Chat

[alphonso]

Thanks for the efforts Joe.

It isn't too pretty seeing the Wine and Diners with those ugly rankings. I also made a bunch of early moves, a little uncharacteristically to get a little more offense/obp.
It is nice seeing those ratings as they change down the stretch. I also believe that the defense does appear to be the 'luck' factor. Poor defensive teams are generally 'unlucky'.

-Alphonso

[barnicle]

Thanks for your effort in the ratings.

I'm still trying to make sense of them. How do ballparks play into the ratings? It seems to me they are the biggest variable from league to league.

b

[joethejet]

Big M,

Well, there are some BIG differences like your one run record in the NLD, but I'll get in dept more later.

Barnicle,

I factored in each team's ballparks for all 162 games so it shouldn't be too much of a factor. BUT, since TSN has the "home field advantage" turned on, and no one has been able to explain what that means, I'm sure that's off somewhat.

But, the biggest factor is games like tonight

I lose three one run games to Crabbers.

First one he wins on a 1-6 HR 1-0.

Second game, with his worst hitters v RHP trailing 3-0 in the 8th, rolls eight straight on the pitcher's card and scores 3 runs versus Beckett and Sanches. Including a run due to a WP. Now, Sanches has 1-19 WP, but it's still only a 5% chance. Anyway, Ibanez hits a 1-7 HR to win in the 9th.

Game 3, parlays an error by the C and a 1-5 single into a pair of runs and another 1-7 HR by Ibanez for the winning run. We're putting 7 LHB up against Jimenez and can only get six runners in 8 IP despite a > 300 Ob.

Oh, and adding injury to insult, we lose Tulo for the next two.

A lot of SOM is luck. <sigh>

[bigmahon]

Hey Joe,

Figures we'd both get swept last night. :( :D

Of course luck is a major factor in SOM. You mentioned my 1 run records in the two leagues, and the difference is Papelbon. He was lights out in NLD 24, but has 10 losses already in this league. That comes down to a whole lot of rolls on the hitters cards this time around. Bad luck for sure.

But if luck were the only factor, there'd be no point in doing ratings at all. I think that in most leagues, luck is factored away by the 162 game season, and the best teams usually rise to the top.

We'll see what happens in this one! :D

[joethejet]

Well, we lost two more one runners before getting blown out in the last game. HUGE change in the standing. This set up is just not a good team. I guess. I think it does have something to do with the park, but this is ridiculous. No way this team in this league should be this far out of it. It's just not that bad a team.

Game one, lose becuae Tulo is hurt and my 4e32 SS makes a single and an error i nthe top of th 9th. Oh, and great hitters like AJ pierzynski and Upton (v rhp) get hits and we lose in 14 innings. Oh, did I meantion he started a .50 SP against us? And, got 5 shutout innings from Randy Johnson?

Game 2, Tomko out pitches Josh Johnson! Give me a break. That team just isn't very good period. We get beat by 2 1-7 BPHR rolls. That's three games of 4 that we lost on 1-7 rolls. But, it's because our team sucks I guess.

Game 3 we get blwon because Sanchez is a MUCH better pitcher than Beckett who can't get out of the second inning. Oh, did I mention another 1-7 BPHR got rolled against us? And that we didn't roll any BPHRs despite having a fair amount?

We've fallen 15 games off the pace after closign to 4 games of .500 due to a series of close losses. Yeah, but it's because this team just isn't very good.

I don't know, maybe you're right Beckett should have a 5.00 ERA and Correia and Lannan should be 4.80+, Sanches should be 4.20 with 5 blow saves and five losses. Lyon should be 3.65 with a 277 average v RHB.

I guess Teixera, Gonzales, Hudson, Either and Rios should all be below .250 and Kennedy, Kapler (total platton) and Tulo should be around 260 in a HIGH singles park. Maybe that should be expected. I'm thinking NO, but I guess I"m wrong.

The thing that has just KILLED us is the SPs. they've been brutal and the offense, despite the park, just hasn't had the average to pick up the difference.

You're right, this is essentially the same team as last time and it sucks again so I guess I'm wrong. I really don't think so, I'd LOVE for someone to tell me why this team is this bad. We're 12-17 in one run games. Horrible.

Had we won those five one run games instead of losing them, we'd be seven back instead of 15. Basically, barring a HUGE hot streak, we're toast. Almost entirely due to this streak.

Just the way it is I guess.

Jet

[joethejet]

Big M,

A couple of comments on the last league and this league. I think your teams aren't quite the same. Your pitching *is* teh same, but your current team has much worse D with Posada and Salazar vis-a-vis Molina and Pierre, but better O particularly v LHP.

That's why your P+F is over performing. As I noted, D seems to be the biggest variable. Something I should probably look at. Perhaps the team ratings are over rating that somehow. The Fielding part seems to be accurate for Faber, and your team is still over pitching even with fielding taken out of the equation and our team is still under performing

In the last league, you were clearly in the weakest division when you look at Big A over reliance on D and pitching. Teams that overload in one way or another are prone to inconsistency. The other two teams in your division were two lowest rated teams. AND, you had an incredible one run record, something that is pretty hard to duplicate IMHO. OTOH, we were in the toughest division by far.

In this league, you are in probably the weakest division overall (although it's balanced) and I'm certainly in the toughest division again.

So, there *might* be a slight overrating of fielding that I'll check into, the combination of close losses and quality opponents may explain a lot of what's going on.

Fenway probably isn't the best park for this team, I acknowledged taht last time around, but, IMHO, this team still should be a contender for a PO spot even in Fenway.

Jet

[joethejet]

Well, we've gotten lucky enough to win six in a row amazingly enough. Course we lost Tulo for the next three so hopefully Maysonet doesn't kill us on D. He doesn't have F. Lopez for one and PUnto for all three so that's something.

Only have to win about 12 in a row more to get back into the race! ;) At least we *might* be able to make it interesting.

Jet

[joethejet]

Back to normal last night. Palmer out pitching Josh Johnson and a one run loss with the winning run scoring in the 9th. Then we score 12 runs in game three. Won the run differential be a wide margin, but still lose 2.

Guess we should be happy to get one win! :D

Jet

[joethejet]

Lost two in another series where we out score the opponent overall. <sigh>

Jet

[joethejet]

Ok, Final stats. I didn't reenter pitching usage or adjust for teams that made moves. If your team made a bunch of moves, your rating surely dropped.

Overall ratings are close with the exception of Beantown, Faber and Mysore. Maybe Dester a little and Motown.

Our hitting came back, but our pitching just has never been up to snuff. The Pen of Lyon and Sanches didn't perform to their stats. That's the biggest reason. A lot of late losses. Of course, having two very good offensive teams in our division didn't help either.

Faber's O is the big reason for their overage. nice to spend only $35 mil on your lineup and score runs like that. they haven't hit RHP at all, but managed to score runs. Of course, being +18 in one run games helps a little bit too.

Similarly, it must be nice to get 180+ IP from Hudson ($.59) and a 3.77 ERA! Wow, no wonder Mysore is up there. < $21 mil on pitching and you're 6th in runs allowed with an average D? You're goign to do well when that happens.

Also similar Dexter only spending $37 mil on the lineup and is sixth in runs scored.

[code:1:2a851cc200]

Team Ov Ovrl Rtg Rec Dif
Beantwn 2433 1 7 -6 C
Protect 2298 2 4 -2 W
SanJuan 2221 3 2 1 C
DexterM 2118 5 2 3 W
MysoreS 2114 5 1 4 C
Kendall 2082 6 6 0 E
Diamond 2016 7 4 3 E
FaberCo 1992 8 1 7 E
Chocolt 1914 9 8 1 E
WineAnd 1833 10 11 -1 W
MooreLi 1772 11 10 1 C
MotownJ 1747 11 8 3 W


Team Of ...O Rtg Run Dif
MysoreS 8121 1 1 0 C
Protect 7857 4 6 -2 W
Beantwn 7855 4 4 0 C
MooreLi 7835 4 7 -3 C
Diamond 7713 5 3 2 E
Chocolt 7692 6 9 -3 E
FaberCo 7605 8 4 4 E
WineAnd 7603 8 12 -4 W
Kendall 7590 8 4 4 E
MotownJ 7472 9 7 2 W
SanJuan 7430 10 6 4 C
DexterM 7226 12 6 6 W

Team PF .P+F Rtg Run Dif
DexterM 5108 1 4 -3 W
SanJuan 5210 2 1 1 C
Beantwn 5422 4 8 -4 C
Kendall 5507 5 8 -3 E
Protect 5559 5 3 2 W
FaberCo 5613 6 8 -2 E
Diamond 5697 8 5 3 E
MotownJ 5725 8 9 -1 W
WineAnd 5769 9 8 1 W
Chocolt 5778 9 7 2 E
MysoreS 6006 11 6 5 C
MooreLi 6063 12 12 0 C
[/code:1:2a851cc200]