by AdamKatz » Mon Oct 04, 2010 1:28 pm
First and foremost, you are right. Sometimes you have a horrible draft and it seems compleytely unfair and you are starting the league a step or two (or ten) behind other players. Even when you draft conservatively, there are a number of people who draft the same players and there always seems to be one guy who managed to get Jackson, Stargell, Brett, Bench and Aaron (or at least more top quality guys than he should have a right to).
On the other hand, you have to take that into account when conducting your draft. My draft card usually has 3-4 expensive guys and alot of 3-5 million guys that I think are the best values. The amount of players with 3-5 very good years is a very short list. Everyone is drafting the same 3-4 guys at each position. Unless someone is in the top 5 (or the top 3 for most elite players) you are not going to get him unless no one drafted him. Most people looking to spend on LF are going to draft Stargell, Rice and Foster. At C, there is Bench and Simmons. At 3B there are Schmidt, Brett and.....Allen.
Some other comments based on the above:
This doesnt really change much, but when HAL conducts the draft, no one is assigned a position in the draft. If 2 people draft Stargetll and Rice first and second. They each have a 50% chance at Stargetll and then a 50% at Rice
Winning consistantly isnt based on getting 3 cards with amazing years, its about getting 9 cards with very good years.
If you are drafting Rice, I assume you were planning to play Stargell in RF. I know that you probably thought that in case you didnt get Rice, Stargell could play LF if you found a good RF who oculdnt play LF. Nevertheless, if you are planning to play Stargell in RF, draft Reggie instead. He is much less popular and frequently on the waiver wire.
If you are drafting Simmons and Rose 6th and 7th, draft them 24th and 25th instead.