ATG a hitters game? What am I missing?

[nevdully's]

It's been said by many, that ATG is a hitters game. Even with the trend towards smallball the last few months it seems still slanted towards the hitters.....I believe this, and to the others who feel this way, I have a question or two......

Why every so often will Jackie Robinson be 80-110 points lower on his OBP?

Why does it often seem that Tony Oliva in a platoon facing mostly RHP will still hit only [b:aa4eb626bf].280 [/b:aa4eb626bf]in 450 abs?

Why does it seem more often than not, that when we set Willie McCovey up in a homerun park, in a hitters league, and a platoon him only to face righties, He'll hit his 50 hrs but still only hit [b:aa4eb626bf].230[/b:aa4eb626bf]?

The obvious answer is [b:aa4eb626bf]luck [/b:aa4eb626bf]or[b:aa4eb626bf] random variation[/b:aa4eb626bf], right?

But if that's true, and coupled with the opinion that ATG is a hitters game, why don't we occasionally see J. Robinson with OBP for the year around [b:aa4eb626bf].530[/b:aa4eb626bf], 80 -110 points higher than his card?

Why don't we see Tony Oliva hit [b:aa4eb626bf].425 [/b:aa4eb626bf]for a year in 500+ abs?

Or Willie Mac hit [b:aa4eb626bf].300 [/b:aa4eb626bf]more often than [b:aa4eb626bf].230[/b:aa4eb626bf]?

Is there something I'm missing :?:

Is it that hitters individually don't usually live up to their cards, but collectively as a team they produce plenty of runs, hence ATG a scoring league?

Could Jackie's "true" numbers be an OBP around .375 not .425, so when he drops to .325 it's only .50 points lower due some bad luck, and when he does reach the .425 it is actually an increase of .50 due to good luck? I'm stumped.

Where's treyomo, and PJ and petro and Charlie and others...Lil help fellas.

[XerXes]

This is exactly the reason I think TSN should post average seasons and make that availible to the public. They have the stats, compile them so the guys who pay lots of money to play can have another resource to see who consistently over/underperforms.

[gkhd11a]

[url]http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/atg2/team/team_other.html?user_id=109048[/url]

jackie is doing ok here!

[gkhd11a]

If you get pitchers teams throughout the league you have 1/2 the AB's against pitching averages of .100 as Jackie's card is only a BA of.420 or so that averages to 260 or 270.

Now if you can put him in a league where only one wise is n Forbes and the rest of the league is bomber parks and good pitchers are on the wire and he plays in Fenway he should do OK.

But if the question is do players have preordained bad seasons? Seems like it, every once in a while Pete is bad and tends to stay bad the whole year.

[danielz]

I've got Jackie in Chicks Dig Longballs League. He is hitting .374, .562, .455 That's only plus 30 in OB facing the 100 worst pitchers. On the other hand, I also have Speaker and his OB is at .463 which is actually lower than what he is supposed to do. Go Figure.

[The Last Druid]

Obviously the pitching and defense hitters are up against in ATG is significantly better than they faced in real life. In a neutral park this seems to translate to about .030 less for averages and OBP. Thus in a neutral park the a priori expectation for Jackie's OBP should be about .395. Put him in the Stick and he'd be lucky to get .370. To get anything like his actual .425 you need to have a hitters park, preferably like Fenway 86 and/or be facing a division with hitting teams and minimal pitching.

Oliva seems to always hit .320 to .360 for me. Problem is he just doesn't create enough runs. I've stopped using Hershberger for the same reason. Who cares if a guy hits .320 but only knocks in 20 runs.

McCovey seems to suffer from the too many walks syndrome, which given the way the cards are set up by Strat, seems to penalize the batting averages of guys that walk alot. How many times have I had Ruth in Dunn or Yankee 56 and he hits under .300. For the same reason, Mel Ott usually sucks for me too.

For the past several months the vast majority of your teams usually look like some permutation of:
Sanderson
Harris
Loes
Cvengros
Various nickel+ fifth guys
coupled with a decent pen and potent hitting. Works nice if you survive the first five innings...

My impression is that you used to have a more universal managing style. Now you've become the antithesis of the --great pitching and defense and hope they score 4 runs a game for you -- formula teams.

Personally I prefer the middle path.

[egvrich]

[quote:3cf28c8685="gkhd11a"]But if the question is do players have preordained bad seasons? Seems like it, every once in a while Pete is bad and tends to stay bad the whole year.[/quote:3cf28c8685]

[size=18:3cf28c8685][color=red:3cf28c8685][i:3cf28c8685][b:3cf28c8685]YES, I BELIEVE THEY DO!!![/b:3cf28c8685][/i:3cf28c8685][/color:3cf28c8685][/size:3cf28c8685]

[sschu]

Thoughts/observations:

I use an Excel model that compares the SP/hitter matchup for each team in a league factored for BP and number of games. It does not factor fielding or bunt/hit & run type stuff. For about 50 teams it has been a good predictor of runs scored, OBP and SLG. It has been an excellent predictor of HRs, within a few %.

Some players seem to have "off" seasons, especially high $$ players, not sure why, maybe the mystery card?

Platoons are suspicious to me, when George Burns hits .240 vs LHs consistently, something does not make sense.

On one hand we complain that HAL is an incompetent boob, on the other hand he is an evil, devious, genius rigging player/team results.

FWIIW, sschu

[egvrich]

[quote:3a80ff5c16="sschu"]On one hand we complain that HAL is an incompetent boob, on the other hand he is an evil, devious, genius rigging player/team results. [/quote:3a80ff5c16]

I think both your hands are correct .. :lol:

[The Last Druid]

Yeah Burns and Clines should be excellent vs. lefties. And they never are. :?