Top 25 Starting Pitchers for 2010...the data is in

[maligned]

Last year, I compiled data in an attempt to predict the Top 25 most valuable Strat starting pitchers for 2009 as soon as the season was over. I successfully predicted 8 of the top 10 and 22 of the top 25 with remarkably similar order to TSN. I'm not telling you this to toot my own horn, but to say that the system I used seems to be a pretty accurate predictor. And many asked me to do it again this year. I didn't get around to it until now. Some notes and the data explanation are below the list. Here they are, with stamina ratings and stars* included:

1 Ubaldo Jimenez, S7*
2 Cliff Lee, S7*
3 Adam Wainwright, S7*
4 Roy Oswalt, S7*
5 Felix Hernandez, S7*
6 Daniel Hudson, S7
7 Jered Weaver, S7*
8 Justin Verlander, S7*
9 Roy Halladay, S7*
10 Matt Cain, S7*
11 Jon Lester, S7*
12 Josh Johnson, S7
13 Trevor Cahill, S7*
14 CC Sabathia, S7*
15 John Danks, S7*
16 Tim Hudson, S7*
17 Stephen Strasburg, S6
18 Clayton Kershaw, S6*
19 Johan Santana, S7*
20 C.J. Wilson, S6*
21 David Price, S7*
22 Colby Lewis, S6*
23 Ricky Romero, S7*
24 Hideki Kuroda S6*
25 Travis Wood, S6
26 Bronson Arroyo, S7*

Notes:
1. The data is compiled using [b:8850255458]ERC[/b:8850255458] as the base (not ERA). ERC is the predicted ERA of a pitcher based on his raw data--not his actual ERA. This baseline ERC is then adjusted for the [b:8850255458]Defensive Efficiency[/b:8850255458] of the pitcher's team, the [b:8850255458]Ballpark Effects[/b:8850255458] of his home park, and his [b:8850255458]League[/b:8850255458]. Finally, I estimated the approximate replacement value ERC for this year's set of pitchers and assigned values to each pitcher based on his stamina and star* or no star status. Again, this system was very successfully predictive last year.

2. Trevor Cahill may not get a star*. He only had 30 starts, but managed 196.1 IP. There are many, many borderline star* cases this year. I think HAL will deem 196.1 IP enough for an automatic. If he doesn't get a star*, Cahill's ranking falls to #20 and #14-20 all move up one spot.

3. I don't expect this prediction set to be quite as accurate as last year's. There are many pitchers crammed in the good to very good category, with not many in the great category (I don't expect the top pitcher to be worth more than 8.25M, for example). I expect this group to shuffle some from what I've guessed. As with last year, I didn't take the time to adjust for standard % assignments toward righty/lefty card values. This also effects the integrity of what I've compiled.

4. If you have questions about certain guys, I don't mind answering them. However, you might be able to answer your own questions with a couple of quick checks. Don't forget, these predictions are based on RAW DATA, not ERA or wins and losses or perceived quality. Ubaldo Jimenez is #1 because Coors Field was ultra hitter-oriented, the Rockies didn't play great defense, and Jimenez's raw data suggest he should have had better results than his actual ERA indicates. If you isolate his performance free of things he can't control, you end up with a very high-value pitcher. David Price is #21 because the Trop is very pitcher friendly, the Rays played pretty good defense, and Price's raw data suggest he got a little lucky with his final ERA. These are just two examples. You can find all pitchers' ERC values on ESPN.com if you're curious.

5. Daniel Hudson had the best ERC and adjusted ERC. He obviously didn't get the #1 position because of his lack of a star.

[Jerlins]

Great job last year, I'm sure this year will be just as well. Thanks.

[maligned]

I saw you got Cliff Lee at the end of the 4th round in your first pre-card draft. Wow. I guess people forgot to do a quick WHIP check.

[ironwill1]

Where did you rank Matt Latos?

[maligned]

He's 0.01M behind Arroyo (#26). He's 8th in ERC and 11th in adjusted ERC, but he's an S6 with no star. I'd guess he'll be worth 4.25-4.5M.

[the splinter]

can I see your list from last year?

[maligned]

My guesses from 2009 (currently on page 16 of the board if you wanted to see discussion points from then):

1 Zack Greinke S7*
2 Tim Lincecum S7*
3 Dan Haren S7*
4 Javier Vazquez S7*
5 Felix Hernandez S7*
6 Josh Johnson S7*
7 Chris Carpenter S7
8 Ubaldo Jimenez S7*
9 CC Sabathia S7*
10 Justin Verlander S7*
11 Roy Halladay S7*
12 Josh Beckett S7*
13 Matt Cain S7*
14 Joel Pineiro S7*
15 Jair Jurrjens S7*
16 Adam Wainwright S7*
17 Jake Peavy S7
18 Jon Lester S6*
19 Ted Lilly S6
20 Scott Baker S6*
21 Robinson Tejeda S5
22 Randy Wolf S6*
23 Josh Outman S6
24 Gavin Floyd S7
25 Ryan Rowland-Smith S7

[Jerlins]

[quote:ec0723136c="maligned"]I saw you got Cliff Lee at the end of the 4th round in your first pre-card draft. Wow. I guess people forgot to do a quick WHIP check.[/quote:ec0723136c]

Yes, I was very surprised he was available. In all honesty, based on how great you did last year, I actually used ERC from the ESPN site, knowing it's how you came about your rankings for 2009.

I actually put out a call about a month ago for your SP predictions. :D

[schnoogens]

Thanks Maligned, I remember relying heavily on your ratings last year in the pre-card drafts. :D

Of course, now the cat is out of the bag and more people know!

I'm surprised to see the top 2 from last year (Lincecum and Greinke) fall out of the top 25 altogether. Not questioning it, just interesting how things change from year to year.