Top 25 Starting Pitchers for 2010...the data is in
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by maligned » Tue Nov 02, 2010 7:04 am
I mentioned in the notes that there are a ton of good pitchers, but not many great ones. I have 44 pitchers with adjusted ERC values between 3.08 and 3.71. Your 4 guys all fall smack in the middle of that group. Garcia and Hamels may be the 2 that seem like they should be top 25 material. Garcia had an ERA far below what his raw data suggests he should have had, plus he plays in a very pitcher-friendly environment and has no star. Hamels also had an ERA (3.06) much lower than his ERC (3.39). Also, his park wasn't as hitter-friendly this year as in years past and the Phillies played strong defense behind him.
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by maligned » Tue Nov 02, 2010 7:05 am
[quote:9c813e3d0c="Jerlins"]I actually put out a call about a month ago for your SP predictions. :D[/quote:9c813e3d0c]
Yeah, I saw last night...I unfortunately haven't been able to be on the boards in a long time.
Yeah, I saw last night...I unfortunately haven't been able to be on the boards in a long time.
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by qksilver69 » Sat Nov 06, 2010 10:03 am
I have a pretty strong suspicion that Hernandez will be on top when all is said & done, otherwise I think these look pretty close.
I do also think that Latos is going to be much higher than $4.5M. Any SP with a WHIP that low, even with some BP HRs, will be more in the $6M range. For reference, Jake Peavy from last year's set had a nearly $6M card with a much worse WHIP and a bad split vs LHP that devalued the card. Latos will get a bad park adjustment but he's still going to be a top 15 SP card.
I do also think that Latos is going to be much higher than $4.5M. Any SP with a WHIP that low, even with some BP HRs, will be more in the $6M range. For reference, Jake Peavy from last year's set had a nearly $6M card with a much worse WHIP and a bad split vs LHP that devalued the card. Latos will get a bad park adjustment but he's still going to be a top 15 SP card.
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by maligned » Sat Nov 06, 2010 6:01 pm
[quote:f1804c2a2c="qksilver"]I have a pretty strong suspicion that Hernandez will be on top when all is said & done, otherwise I think these look pretty close.
I do also think that Latos is going to be much higher than $4.5M. Any SP with a WHIP that low, even with some BP HRs, will be more in the $6M range. For reference, Jake Peavy from last year's set had a nearly $6M card with a much worse WHIP and a bad split vs LHP that devalued the card. Latos will get a bad park adjustment but he's still going to be a top 15 SP card.[/quote:f1804c2a2c]
I have to adjust Jimenez' park and defense effects 8% to his detriment and Hernandez' 8% in his favor for the their final values to be equal. That's a lot. We'll see. :)
You may be absolutely correct about Latos. These predictions aren't so intuitive with some elements of how card values are adjusted for strength in particular environments in their final stages. In looking back through data and how pricing came out last year, I agree that he'll very likely be more than 4.5M.
With that said, don't forget that the replacement value line is going to be about 0.25-0.3 runs/9 lower than last year because of how much offense suffered. This gives an S6 with no star in the 4-6M range about a .2-.4M comparative disadvantage when considered alongside last year's S6 vs. S7* measurements in the same range.
I do also think that Latos is going to be much higher than $4.5M. Any SP with a WHIP that low, even with some BP HRs, will be more in the $6M range. For reference, Jake Peavy from last year's set had a nearly $6M card with a much worse WHIP and a bad split vs LHP that devalued the card. Latos will get a bad park adjustment but he's still going to be a top 15 SP card.[/quote:f1804c2a2c]
I have to adjust Jimenez' park and defense effects 8% to his detriment and Hernandez' 8% in his favor for the their final values to be equal. That's a lot. We'll see. :)
You may be absolutely correct about Latos. These predictions aren't so intuitive with some elements of how card values are adjusted for strength in particular environments in their final stages. In looking back through data and how pricing came out last year, I agree that he'll very likely be more than 4.5M.
With that said, don't forget that the replacement value line is going to be about 0.25-0.3 runs/9 lower than last year because of how much offense suffered. This gives an S6 with no star in the 4-6M range about a .2-.4M comparative disadvantage when considered alongside last year's S6 vs. S7* measurements in the same range.
Last edited by maligned on Sat Nov 06, 2010 6:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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by AeroDave10 » Sat Nov 06, 2010 6:47 pm
I think maligned maybe putting a little too much value on the *, and who will get one. Cahill doesn't seem to be in line for one with just 30 starts. 17 of the top 25 in 2009 were SP*, and maligned has 21 of the top 25 in 2010 as SP*.
Josh Johnson will probably be in the top 10; Buchholz 15-20.
Still, a pretty good list and definitely a good resource for pre-card drafts :)
Josh Johnson will probably be in the top 10; Buchholz 15-20.
Still, a pretty good list and definitely a good resource for pre-card drafts :)
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by Jerlins » Sat Nov 06, 2010 7:12 pm
[quote:8ad7edb84b="AeroDave10"]I think maligned maybe putting a little too much value on the *, and who will get one. Cahill doesn't seem to be in line for one with just 30 starts. 17 of the top 25 in 2009 were SP*, and maligned has 21 of the top 25 in 2010 as SP*.
Josh Johnson will probably be in the top 10; Buchholz 15-20.
Still, a pretty good list and definitely a good resource for pre-card drafts :)[/quote:8ad7edb84b]
Everyone who had as many innings as Cahill did in 09 got an SP* rating, some had even less innings. He'll get the star.
Josh Johnson will probably be in the top 10; Buchholz 15-20.
Still, a pretty good list and definitely a good resource for pre-card drafts :)[/quote:8ad7edb84b]
Everyone who had as many innings as Cahill did in 09 got an SP* rating, some had even less innings. He'll get the star.
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by AeroDave10 » Sat Nov 06, 2010 7:26 pm
I think it matters how many starts you make, not just how many innings, since SP vs SP* in SOM terms is directly more about how many starts you make, not necessarily how many innings you throw. The top two SPs in 2009 in IP that did not get a star (Blanton=195 1/3, Maholm 194 2/3), made 31 starts.
To help illustrate this point, there were 5 starters below Blanton in IP who were SP* (Lowe, Pettitte, Looper, Hamels, Zito), and all 5 had 32-34 starts.
He WON'T get the star. :lol:
To help illustrate this point, there were 5 starters below Blanton in IP who were SP* (Lowe, Pettitte, Looper, Hamels, Zito), and all 5 had 32-34 starts.
He WON'T get the star. :lol:
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by maligned » Sat Nov 06, 2010 7:29 pm
[quote:69737b2e06="AeroDave10"]17 of the top 25 in 2009 were SP*, and maligned has 21 of the top 25 in 2010 as SP*.
[/quote:69737b2e06]
True. And I valued the star exactly the same both years.
It's just chance that the two pitchers asked about (Latos and Buchholz) happened to be barely outside the top 25 in my rankings (and people may be right; they may be in). But I didn't somehow penalize them more than last year.
You're absolutely right. Cahill very likely won't get a star. As I mentioned in the notes, I would move him to #20 with no star. But he had 196.1 IP, which may get him an automatic star.
No one's questioned me on it, but Johan Santana also has a very good chance to have no star. If Hal decides to give him the superstar/past performance treatment, his 199 IP will be enough. But he only started 29 games. If Hal follows '07 principles (199.1 IP for Wang, 30 GS, no star), he won't have a star. But there have been adjustments made over the years, so I don't know. If he has no star, he drops out of the top 25 and Latos is my next guess.
[/quote:69737b2e06]
True. And I valued the star exactly the same both years.
It's just chance that the two pitchers asked about (Latos and Buchholz) happened to be barely outside the top 25 in my rankings (and people may be right; they may be in). But I didn't somehow penalize them more than last year.
You're absolutely right. Cahill very likely won't get a star. As I mentioned in the notes, I would move him to #20 with no star. But he had 196.1 IP, which may get him an automatic star.
No one's questioned me on it, but Johan Santana also has a very good chance to have no star. If Hal decides to give him the superstar/past performance treatment, his 199 IP will be enough. But he only started 29 games. If Hal follows '07 principles (199.1 IP for Wang, 30 GS, no star), he won't have a star. But there have been adjustments made over the years, so I don't know. If he has no star, he drops out of the top 25 and Latos is my next guess.
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