Down with Small Ball!

[Munich_Man]

[quote:a1bd05723e="FUDU"][quote:a1bd05723e="Munich_Man"]OK, we've cracked the 100 game mark, and my boys have averaged 10.25 RPG to date.

Will the infamous normalization kick in? None of my players is having a truly exceptional season, but the team as a whole is making wonderful music together. Can HAL normalize an entire team?[/quote:a1bd05723e]

When you speak of normalization are you speaking to an intentional recognized move by HAL or are you just speaking about the dice rolls eventually going the other way due to normal probability and odds? If the former then that kind of bums me out a little that such a approach would be "built into" the game.[/quote:a1bd05723e]

There has been a long (years) debate about the former being still in effect. We do know that HAL-based normalization was built into the game, but we were told that it had been turned off. I think that was in ATG II, but fellow vets with better memories can correct me.

Some suspect that there is still some normalization occurring. I was not in that conspirational crowd, until my last attempt at a total hitting team, which was on a very nice 9.3 RPG until about game 100 (the suspected point of normalization taking effect) when its production suddenly dropped to just under 7 RPG. Bonds was on pace to hit 120 HRs, and finished with 99, hitting only 2 dingers over the last 23 games.

This team is different, as it is far more balanced and there would have to be some kind of team normalization. Granted, I didn't expect the torrid 10.25 RPG pace, but a lineup analyzer ( http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py )projected this team at 9.8 RPG, so their performance isn't due entirely to a beneficial dice environment. If they suddenly start scoring less than 7 RPG, then I will seriously start to think some normalization code is still in effect.

[mighty moose]

Rick,

When you plugged in the numbers for your analysis web site, did you plug in the numbers using the ballpark factoring ? For example, using D-Dope, if I plug in Crosley 66 and do a lineup analyzer, I get way different OBP and SLG numbers.

When I use this and then plug them into the baseball musings site, I am getting 16.394 as a projected RPG !!

Granted I am not always going to be in my park, but ....... :shock:

[Munich_Man]

No, I didn't know DD had a lineup analysis function. Maybe I need to use DD more. I really only use it for actuals. :)

[PotKettleBlack]

MunichMan

On using the Lineup Analysis at musings, do you do some kind of normalization to balance out the pitcher half of results, or do you chunk in their RL numbers?

[Munich_Man]

Just chunk in the real life numbers. The site has been amazingly prescient, but only when I use the 2005-present model. the 1959-2004 model underestimated run production by 2-3 RPG.

[wesleyeugeneclark]

I thought I was the only one using the baseball musings lineup analysis. I have always found it to be a fairly accurate indicator. Looks like my secret weapon is not so secret!

[Munich_Man]

[quote:dd4d1bd8d0="joekendall"][quote:dd4d1bd8d0="Munich_Man"]Never! I feel the power of the Dark Side...

After scoring 17, 16, and 10 last night (and going 2-1), I'm averaging nearly 10 runs per game (770 runs in 78 games). There is much power in this one...

On a side note, does anyone else have problems with Teddy Ballgame getting injured? Not just with this team, but nearly every time I have him he seems to go down for an inordinate amount of time with injuries. Not more than three games, but he is hurt often.[/quote:dd4d1bd8d0]

I used him a lot at first in ATG 5, but I felt he seemed to get injured more times than what you would expect.[/quote:dd4d1bd8d0]

The last two nights, Teddy has been injured, albeit only for 1 game each time, but still...

He gets injured a LOT!

Out for 12 games already this season.

Only twice has he been down for 3 games, and once for two, which means he has been injured 7 times this season. Most players don't get injured at all.

Any theories, besides the normal conspirational ones? lol

I shouldn't complain, though. My 15-game injury Joe D has been injured twice, both times for 0 games.

[Munich_Man]

Well, not only did my boys weather a recent stretch where they played 21 of 24 away from home, they went 18-6, including a current 11-game winning streak.

They now go back to the friendly confines of Fulton County stadium for 15 of the next 18 games.

The home/road splits are quite significant--

.377/.465/.708 at home as a team, but only .321/.420/.578 on the road.

Could be time to pad some numbers! Could the home stand bring my RPG number up to 11? This should be significant in determining if any normalization is occurring.

[Munich_Man]

[quote:55590334ed="mighty moose"]Here you go, tried for Tris Speaker in waivers - didnt get him but the guy that got him had to drop Duke - for my pickup.

Picked up Killebrew in waivers. I like the OBP guys I have in front of the big sticks.

What do you think ?

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/team/team_other.html?user_id=322986[/quote:55590334ed]

I like it! I prefer Myatt instead of Whitt in the Nicosia platoon, but Ernie seems to be working. Good luck!

[mighty moose]

Whitt has so much more HR capability - for a team that is designed for them. He's got one already !!

Opening night was a disappointment. Bonds and Duke both batting .083 :(

The normalization kicked in on opening day !!!