[quote:b1e3a7dba9]What process Hal uses to decide to throw or not, who knows? Basically, it is what we have always asked for: less Hal and more of our decisions.[/quote:b1e3a7dba9]
Isn't that more HAL? We have no option or control over this (not throwing) that I'm aware of....And the whole "who knows?" thing is in effect w-a-y too much here. (imo)
Normalization MORE INFO - NEED CHARLIE
by krackrjack » Sat Jun 04, 2011 8:34 pm
Fairly recently there was a live draft league in which one of the owners "auto drafted" his entire team using his pre draft rankings. The result was without a doubt the worst team I have ever seen in a live draft league. Most of the owners in this league (Myself, Petrosian, sschu, DonFESQ, dharmabums, scubaking1...the live regulars) commented on what a disaster this team was.
As the season played out I won this division with 101 wins and this team finished last in the same division. I thought it might be useful to this discussion to see if this truly awful team or my team showed any effects of "normalization".
In the first 54 games I went 35 -19 .648, the awful team went 16-38 .296
In the second 54 games I went 30-24 .555, the awful team went 17-37 .315
In the final 54 games I went 36-18 .667, the awful team went 8-46 .148
Final records: Me - 101-61-.623
Awful Team - 41-121-.253
To address nev's original statement "[b:0ad3a7dad4]As I said at the top Normalization Bullspit....This game is programmed or coded to do whatever it must to keep won loss totals from going too much in either direction.[/b:0ad3a7dad4] " this was clearly not the case.
If HAL was doing anything to "normalize" our records it didn't work.
The other teams loss totals were not prevented in any way from going too far. 121 losses is more than any modern team has ever managed IRL. Their worst third of the season was the last.
I actually had my highest win pct. in the last third of the season.
I agree that the game does a lot of things that we don't know about and/or don't understand the process of why and how. I also agree that it would be better for us if the games processes were more transparent.
"Normalization" however, does not seem to exist. I think we all tend to buy into it because we all have teams that got off to great starts and then collapse. I think this league shows clearly that, at least in so far as preventing bad teams from losing too many games, it is just an anecdotal
myth.
JMHO
Jack
As the season played out I won this division with 101 wins and this team finished last in the same division. I thought it might be useful to this discussion to see if this truly awful team or my team showed any effects of "normalization".
In the first 54 games I went 35 -19 .648, the awful team went 16-38 .296
In the second 54 games I went 30-24 .555, the awful team went 17-37 .315
In the final 54 games I went 36-18 .667, the awful team went 8-46 .148
Final records: Me - 101-61-.623
Awful Team - 41-121-.253
To address nev's original statement "[b:0ad3a7dad4]As I said at the top Normalization Bullspit....This game is programmed or coded to do whatever it must to keep won loss totals from going too much in either direction.[/b:0ad3a7dad4] " this was clearly not the case.
If HAL was doing anything to "normalize" our records it didn't work.
The other teams loss totals were not prevented in any way from going too far. 121 losses is more than any modern team has ever managed IRL. Their worst third of the season was the last.
I actually had my highest win pct. in the last third of the season.
I agree that the game does a lot of things that we don't know about and/or don't understand the process of why and how. I also agree that it would be better for us if the games processes were more transparent.
"Normalization" however, does not seem to exist. I think we all tend to buy into it because we all have teams that got off to great starts and then collapse. I think this league shows clearly that, at least in so far as preventing bad teams from losing too many games, it is just an anecdotal
myth.
JMHO
Jack
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by nevdully's » Sat Jun 04, 2011 9:07 pm
[quote:b168ecb5e8]I think this league shows clearly that, at least in so far as preventing bad teams from losing too many games, it is just an anecdotal
myth. [/quote:b168ecb5e8]
ROTFLMAO because you show [b:b168ecb5e8][u:b168ecb5e8]"one"[/u:b168ecb5e8][/b:b168ecb5e8] example....Talk about anecdotal.
myth. [/quote:b168ecb5e8]
ROTFLMAO because you show [b:b168ecb5e8][u:b168ecb5e8]"one"[/u:b168ecb5e8][/b:b168ecb5e8] example....Talk about anecdotal.
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by The Last Druid » Sat Jun 04, 2011 9:32 pm
Hope you didn't injure yourself on the floor Nev. :lol:
A scientific verity is that one can never prove a theory, but one can disprove it. As such, krackrjack's example, while anecdotal, is highly relevant. Far more so, in fact, than twenty examples supporting normalization. If normalization is on, then it stands to reason that it is always on, not just selectively (one could argue that it may only be turned on via a trigger mechanism but the same principle applies, once it is on it should remain on until its goal is achieved i.e. the record normalized).
http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/team/team_other.html?user_id=317319
This team ended up winning 103. But it won ten in a row starting at game 147 and ended up the season 13-3 since game 147. No way normalization lets a team that is 90-57 win ten in a row.
Here's one of my teams that ended last night:
http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/team/team_other.html?user_id=319184
My team finished with 17-3 in it's last twenty games. Would normalization let that happen?
Now interestingly starting at game 106 I went 3-13 in the next 16 games. Now at the time, you could have made an argument for normalization there. But as for what happened later, sorry but theory disconfirmed by three little anecdotes.
There is no normalization of team records.
A scientific verity is that one can never prove a theory, but one can disprove it. As such, krackrjack's example, while anecdotal, is highly relevant. Far more so, in fact, than twenty examples supporting normalization. If normalization is on, then it stands to reason that it is always on, not just selectively (one could argue that it may only be turned on via a trigger mechanism but the same principle applies, once it is on it should remain on until its goal is achieved i.e. the record normalized).
http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/team/team_other.html?user_id=317319
This team ended up winning 103. But it won ten in a row starting at game 147 and ended up the season 13-3 since game 147. No way normalization lets a team that is 90-57 win ten in a row.
Here's one of my teams that ended last night:
http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/team/team_other.html?user_id=319184
My team finished with 17-3 in it's last twenty games. Would normalization let that happen?
Now interestingly starting at game 106 I went 3-13 in the next 16 games. Now at the time, you could have made an argument for normalization there. But as for what happened later, sorry but theory disconfirmed by three little anecdotes.
There is no normalization of team records.
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by nevdully's » Sat Jun 04, 2011 10:08 pm
Yes I understand, but how do we know without this code the poor team mighta only won 30 games? Top vets draft up all the talent. Hell you've said yourself how tough the leagues are...Often the best of the best and this poor guy with crap still wins 41..Perhaps even with this code in place (in this ONE instance) it just turned a 7-2 loss into a 7-5 loss.....and such a poor record happens once every what 300 seasons...
Also it might not Directly affect w-l as much player performance, which more times than not achieves the desired effect of a w-l record normalization, or perhaps w-l is not the desired effect but is just another effect of player normalization...
Funny...[b:321033994e]If *I* said "Ya know it sure seems like the home teams win a little more than what most would consider normal. Sorta like, I dunno maybe they have some such code which boost batters by about 10% points"
[/b:321033994e]
You'd say [u:321033994e]"nah it just seems that way"[/u:321033994e] [u:321033994e]"Teams are just better suited for their park"[/u:321033994e] [u:321033994e]"Why would HAL even do such a thing"[/u:321033994e] [u:321033994e]"Look here's a team that did better on the road"[/u:321033994e]...and of course the best one [u:321033994e]"I disagree so you PROVE IT"
[/u:321033994e]
Also it might not Directly affect w-l as much player performance, which more times than not achieves the desired effect of a w-l record normalization, or perhaps w-l is not the desired effect but is just another effect of player normalization...
Funny...[b:321033994e]If *I* said "Ya know it sure seems like the home teams win a little more than what most would consider normal. Sorta like, I dunno maybe they have some such code which boost batters by about 10% points"
[/b:321033994e]
You'd say [u:321033994e]"nah it just seems that way"[/u:321033994e] [u:321033994e]"Teams are just better suited for their park"[/u:321033994e] [u:321033994e]"Why would HAL even do such a thing"[/u:321033994e] [u:321033994e]"Look here's a team that did better on the road"[/u:321033994e]...and of course the best one [u:321033994e]"I disagree so you PROVE IT"
[/u:321033994e]
Last edited by nevdully's on Sat Jun 04, 2011 10:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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by krackrjack » Sat Jun 04, 2011 10:08 pm
nev,
As Petro so kindly pointed out, if normalization is on then it should be seen in EVERY case.
I used this example because if there were normalization, it would certainly have kicked in in this case. It didn't.
Do you think that normalization kicked in and allowed this guy to win 8 of his last 54 games?
Normalization dragged me down by causing me to win at a .667 clip over my last 54 games?
If normalization exists where was it in the case of a record setting losing team?
As Petro so kindly pointed out, if normalization is on then it should be seen in EVERY case.
I used this example because if there were normalization, it would certainly have kicked in in this case. It didn't.
Do you think that normalization kicked in and allowed this guy to win 8 of his last 54 games?
Normalization dragged me down by causing me to win at a .667 clip over my last 54 games?
If normalization exists where was it in the case of a record setting losing team?
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by nevdully's » Sat Jun 04, 2011 10:13 pm
See above....And keep in mind that for [b:4b16bce835]a couple of Years[/b:4b16bce835] we were told [b:4b16bce835]the exact same stuff by many on these boards, and by none other than Bernie himself[/b:4b16bce835] only to find out that [b:4b16bce835]YES HR normalization was on![/b:4b16bce835]
I'm not sure everyone gets that.
I'm not sure everyone gets that.
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by nevdully's » Sat Jun 04, 2011 10:28 pm
Also I'm not sure everyone gets what this type of code I think this "might mean". Not that a 100+ win team is going to slump the last 3rd of the season and only win 95...[b:d0716133e3][u:d0716133e3]But Similar to HR normalization[/u:d0716133e3][/b:d0716133e3] If a team was on pace to break records for w-l (about 115 games won) they'd be cooled down...So they might still win 108 by going 20-13 but that still isn't the 70% winning pct they enjoyed the first 2/3rds of the season.
Real Life Baseball 100+ seasons, and only one guy, Joe D hit in 56 straight.....Thousands and thousands of seasons here and all this H-i-t-t-i-n-g right....Guys hitting 80+ HRs teams batting .350+ Rick's Team averaging 10 runs a game....if enough monkeys bang on enough keyboards they can write a Beatles tune, but thousands and thousands of seasons here how many 56 game hitting streaks have we had???????
Real Life Baseball 100+ seasons, and only one guy, Joe D hit in 56 straight.....Thousands and thousands of seasons here and all this H-i-t-t-i-n-g right....Guys hitting 80+ HRs teams batting .350+ Rick's Team averaging 10 runs a game....if enough monkeys bang on enough keyboards they can write a Beatles tune, but thousands and thousands of seasons here how many 56 game hitting streaks have we had???????
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by krackrjack » Sat Jun 04, 2011 10:31 pm
I agree with you on many points and I have no doubt whatsoever that the game is doing many things behind the scenes that we don't, and should, know about.
My disagreement is with your original statement that " ....This game is programmed or coded to do whatever it must to keep won loss totals from going too much in either direction. "
Clearly in this case it did not do "what ever it must to keep won loss totals from going too much in either direction" since one teams loss total went too far in one direction and got worse, not better, as the season progressed.
If your contention is that the game may have done "something" as opposed to "whatever it must" to try and effect the outcome of games I agree with you that without looking at the actual code we can not tell from a single example. It might have tried to give this epically bad team some help. I don't know and can't tell for sure. That does not alter the fact that it definitely didn't do "whatever it must" or this team would not have lost 121 games and I and the other teams in this division (including Petro) would not have continued to win at the same rate.
My disagreement is with your original statement that " ....This game is programmed or coded to do whatever it must to keep won loss totals from going too much in either direction. "
Clearly in this case it did not do "what ever it must to keep won loss totals from going too much in either direction" since one teams loss total went too far in one direction and got worse, not better, as the season progressed.
If your contention is that the game may have done "something" as opposed to "whatever it must" to try and effect the outcome of games I agree with you that without looking at the actual code we can not tell from a single example. It might have tried to give this epically bad team some help. I don't know and can't tell for sure. That does not alter the fact that it definitely didn't do "whatever it must" or this team would not have lost 121 games and I and the other teams in this division (including Petro) would not have continued to win at the same rate.
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by nevdully's » Sat Jun 04, 2011 10:36 pm
I understand....I worded things carelessly...I get a little ahh...emotional in the moment.
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