Unrealistic Board Game Maneuver; statistical edge?

Unrealistic Board Game Maneuver; statistical edge?

Postby mikemartinfl » Wed Aug 03, 2011 1:33 pm

in relief situations have both a 9R and 9L pitcher platoon between a position (lf?) and Pitcher depending on what batter is up. You could swap them on a batter by batter basis. This wouldnt work if there are some switch hitters in the lineup, but was wondering -- even though this is not even close to realistic -- if you think there would be a big edge in trading the defensive liability for the stud pitcher swap with 9R balance..

Image you had a Darwin/Merritt or a Linzy/Sambito, something like that.

Any thoughts from those inclined to know? Might be fun to tinker with in Net Play -- though having tried it already it crashes the program trying to create a box score after the game :)
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Postby rburgh » Wed Aug 03, 2011 6:37 pm

I remember the 70's Pirates doing this with Tekulve and Grant Jackson a couple of times. I think it was a more common tactic in the 50's and 60's when teams historically only carried 9 or 10 pitchers.
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Postby Mean Dean » Thu Aug 04, 2011 1:18 am

Teams have been known to do this, but it always ends up happening in long extra-inning games when benches and bullpens are both nearly emptied. I can't recall a team doing it just for the heck of it in a "normal" situation.

Bill James discusses the issue on p. 183-4 of the [u:3966d55254]Bill James Guide to Baseball Managers[/u:3966d55254]. He says that Whitey Herzog "used this trick at least five times in the late 1980s." James then goes into depth about an incident on May 15, 1951. White Sox manager Paul Richards moved his reliever on the mound to 3B, in order to bring in a lefty against Ted Williams. The lefty did in fact retire Williams, and the original pitcher then returned to the mound, with the backup 3B coming off the bench to play there.

Naturally, if Teddy had hit the ball to 3B*, the White Sox probably would have been screwed. And as James points out, there's another big factor: You've taken the original position player out of the game.

[quote:3966d55254]The value of the platoon edge for one hitter is about .025 hits... So in order to gain 25 points on Ted Williams, Richards replaced a .326 hitter [Minnie Minoso] with a .263 hitter [Floyd Baker]. The game went 11 innings, and Baker went to bat twice.[/quote:3966d55254]
Of course, if you do it for more than one batter, you can potentially get more platoon advantage... but you're also increasing the chance that an evenly-balanced batter will come up, not to mention the chance that the ball will be hit to the pitcher playing out of position.

To me, everything would have to be aligned perfectly: You'd have to have pitchers who utterly shut down the same-side batters; you'd have to be really sure that the opponent has no plausible pinch-hit option; and you'd have to have an "escape plan" where you can revert back to a real player if you need someone out there who can field a ball.

[i:3966d55254]* Which, to be fair, he hardly ever did. But SOM does not reflect this.[/i:3966d55254]
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Postby PotKettleBlack » Thu Aug 04, 2011 8:48 am

Imagine instead some capable fielding pitcher/fielders with strong splits. Thinking good athletes like Rick Ankiel or Jason Marquis, who could actually field LF and hit like a NL 8th batter.

Theoretically interesting, especially as a late inning strategy at a low threshold fielding position, like left field.
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Postby Mean Dean » Wed Aug 24, 2011 9:27 am

[url=http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/COL/COL201108230.shtml]The Astros did this last night[/url]. It pretty much [i:7c786f4a1f]was[/i:7c786f4a1f] "just for the heck of it in a "normal" situation", really...
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Postby PotKettleBlack » Wed Aug 24, 2011 3:47 pm

[quote:9e2c13df9f="DeanTSC"][url=http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/COL/COL201108230.shtml]The Astros did this last night[/url]. It pretty much [i:9e2c13df9f]was[/i:9e2c13df9f] "just for the heck of it in a "normal" situation", really...[/quote:9e2c13df9f]

Worked well too. Wright gets his men, Carpenter gets a weak GB to SS, nowhere near RF. Oh, and Downs hits for Wright, and gets on base, top of 9, down two, as the tying run. Now if the top of the Astros lineup didn't suck...

With the 40 man roster... I might expect to see some of this in the NL. If you call up the full 15, you could carry a little 4 man squad for this... The L/R pitcher/fielders and the L/R PH to come in the game and bat for them/take their place in the field.
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Postby Valen » Thu Aug 25, 2011 8:50 am

Rule Question: If you were doing this and the opposing manager pinch hit for a hitter could you just simply swap the players back instead of having to face that pinch hitter with unfavorable matchup.

In other words you have been swapping say pitcher with first baseman. At the moment a RH bat is coming up so you take your RH first baseman and move him to the mound with your LH pitcher going to first. The opposing team counters with a LH pinch hitter. Does that RH pitcher have to face the pinch hitter or can the 2 players just swap again?
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Postby Mean Dean » Thu Aug 25, 2011 12:35 pm

I don't see any reason why Rule 3.05(b) would not apply there as it does normally... the pitcher has been replaced, therefore the new pitcher needs to face at least one batter.

(An interesting note is that Rule 3.03 specifies that "A pitcher may change to another position only once during the same inning." So even if you do let them face at least one batter each, you still can't keep flipping the same two guys over and over. 8-)
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