Underperforming the Pythagorean

[motherscratcher]

I seem to always underperform my pythagorean (admittedly in a small sample size).

Is this just SSS/Bad luck? Or is there a common reason that teams underperform?

[216 Stitches]

There are a lot of small reasons.

Bad Bullpen and blowouts are two main reasons

Teams that lose by wider margins but win close games
outperform the pythagorean. If you have really bad mop up
pitchers, your runs against will be artificially high (for instance)
becuase scores get run up in big losses. Teams which hold
down the blowouts but blow out other teams a lot will go the
other way.

Teams built for tighter margins (pitching, small ball and defense)
can outperform the pythagorean, teams trying to bludgeon
the opposition (tons of HRs, etc) can underpeform because the
runs are easier to come by once they hit the bullpen, hence leads
can become blowouts mroe easily. And that helps the stats, but
not the W-L terribly much.

[PotKettleBlack]

And then, there's luck.

Teams get one run luck both ways... good and bad. If you have a bad luck 3/4ths of a season, you will under perform.

If this is something you see happening a lot, it's probably either a defensive issue or a style of bullpen play issue.