by supertyphoon » Sat Sep 17, 2011 5:38 pm
We always tend to think normalization kicks in when things are going too well, but what if the reverse is true? Maybe that first-half hot streak was the anomaly, and second-half "normalization" was what we should have expected all along ???
My best example of anti-normalization is killing me right now. My team jumped out to great record, 23-10 after 33 games. Played a little over .500 at 47-43 for the next 90 games, and was 17 games over .500 with a 70-53 record after 123 games. Then ... nothing. Record now stands at 73-68, 3-15 last week.
Another team in my division started 15-18 after 33 games, so I was 8 games ahead at that point, After 90 games their record was 44-46 and I was still 5 games ahead. But in the last 51 games, the team has been on fire, going 42-9 to zoom 13 games ahead with a record of 86-55.
So what's "normal"? There's no reason to suspect that team with a sub-500 record to suddenly become unbeatable, but it did. Maybe, just maybe, the team was much better than it's early record indicated, and my team just wasn't as good as it seemed after 33 games.
Here are the results if anyone's interested:
http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/league/team_schedule.html?user_id=337959
http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/league/team_schedule.html?user_id=338159
The randomness of this game never ceases to amaze me.