Archive of SportingNews.com's old SOM Baseball forum

by **Proverbial Psalms** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 8:04 pm

Still win more than theeir fair share of championships...

Out of 646 completed ATG6 leagues... teams with the best record in the league have won 232 of those championships... that is 35.9% of the time which is obviously better than the 1 in 4 chance with 4 teams.

I know this was one of those topics that comes up from time to time.. anecdotes about the team with the league's best record getting quickly eliminated in the playoffs.

Incidentally, the teams with the 100+ wins in a league make it to the finals 65% of the time, and win the championship 37% of the time.... both better than what one would believe from the anecdotes..

by **Proverbial Psalms** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 8:13 pm

Another item that gets a lot of visibility on the boards... underdog teams that squeek into the playoffs and then win it all.

In 646 completed ATG6 leagues...

in cases where teams made the playoffs with 10+ FEWER wins than the team with the league's best record, those underdog teams won the championship 19% of the time... not higher than what i would expect.

by **djmacb** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 8:13 pm

Bill, don't you know half the lies on the ATG boards aren't true?

by **nevdully's** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 8:32 pm

[quote:8fb87cc617]Incidentally, the teams with the 100+ wins in a league make it to the finals 65% of the time[/quote:8fb87cc617]

In other words the 100+ win team with home field advantage matches up against the wild card team (worst record) and wins the series about 2/3rds of the time....I'd a thought it would be more like 3 outta 4.

Always informative to see the actuals. Thanks. :)

by **Proverbial Psalms** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 8:45 pm

[quote:cf6c228f15="nevdully's"]In other words the 100+ win team with home field advantage matches up against the wild card team (worst record) and wins the series about 2/3rds of the time....I'd a thought it would be more like 3 outta 4[/quote:cf6c228f15]

In other words you think that a team that maybe had a .600 winning percentage in the regular season against all levels of teams would somehow win with a .750 series winning percentage against one of the best 4 teams in the league... :?

And as you know, the wild card team can sometimes have the league's 2nd or 3rd best record, not always 4th... and if the wildcard is in the same division, the team with the league's best record opens against aother division winner

by **nevdully's** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 8:53 pm

[quote:471bb5fe45]In other words you think that a team that [b:471bb5fe45]maybe had a .600 winning percentage[/b:471bb5fe45] in the regular season [/quote:471bb5fe45]

Maybe a .600 winning pct?

100 wins gives you a winning pct of .617

103 wins .636

We were talking 100+ no?

by **nevdully's** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 8:57 pm

[quote:048a4ceba3]And as you know, the wild card team can sometimes have the league's 2nd or 3rd best record, not always 4th.[/quote:048a4ceba3]

That's only been a fairly recent change in the playoff format.

by **Proverbial Psalms** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 8:59 pm

[quote:d9b6860204]we were talking 100+ no?[/quote:d9b6860204]
Yes we were, peace...

Speaking of teams with 103 wins... teams with regular season record of 103+ wins won their semi series 73.5% of the time... closer to what you expected anyway

by **nevdully's** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 9:03 pm

I just read [b:149f759f93]only 4[/b:149f759f93] of the last 30 100+ wins teams (since 1970) have gone on to win a Title. :shock:

by **rburgh** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 9:03 pm

Well, you don't have to win 65% of the games to win 65% of the best-of-7 series.

Game win % Series win %
.65 .80
.60 .71
.57 .65
.55 .608

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