http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/btf/pages/basesim/stratfldg.htm#LF
3 e 10 allows 16 TB per game
4 e 12 allows 24.2 TB per game
dont think any arm difference will negate 8 TB a game
What's better in LF, 4(-4)e12 or 3(+1)e10
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by macnole » Tue May 24, 2011 2:18 pm
Errors are really negligible in his case. But singles allowed are as bad as errors...and triples allowed are worse...
The question is how to compare the net value of the players.
Figure each offensive NERP from DD vs what you think they will see as far as L/R splits. Then can estimate using a long drawn out estimate for Defensive NERP allowed...which is ~4.8 for a range of 3 in LF/RF, and ~8.2 for a range of 4.
As Valen mentioned, a high range in the outfield leads to XBHs, charted in the aggregate and ignoring some minor nuances, looks like:
OF 3 70% Outs...15%SI 15%DO
OF 4 45% Outs...35%SI 15%DO 5%TR
This is just the range chart for an X chance, etc.
But if you take the offensive NERP minus the defensive NERP estimate above, you can estimate the net value of each player relative price.
The question is how to compare the net value of the players.
Figure each offensive NERP from DD vs what you think they will see as far as L/R splits. Then can estimate using a long drawn out estimate for Defensive NERP allowed...which is ~4.8 for a range of 3 in LF/RF, and ~8.2 for a range of 4.
As Valen mentioned, a high range in the outfield leads to XBHs, charted in the aggregate and ignoring some minor nuances, looks like:
OF 3 70% Outs...15%SI 15%DO
OF 4 45% Outs...35%SI 15%DO 5%TR
This is just the range chart for an X chance, etc.
But if you take the offensive NERP minus the defensive NERP estimate above, you can estimate the net value of each player relative price.
Last edited by macnole on Tue May 24, 2011 2:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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by macnole » Tue May 24, 2011 2:22 pm
Mike Martinfl--I dont think that's per gamel seems very high no?...and the issue is still how to make it a common denominator so to speak with offensive calcs, otherwise how to compare?
Maybe Im missing something. Wouldnt be the first time!
Maybe Im missing something. Wouldnt be the first time!
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by mikemartinfl » Fri May 27, 2011 12:06 pm
[quote:846f6dad63="macnole"]Mike Martinfl--I dont think that's per gamel seems very high no?...and the issue is still how to make it a common denominator so to speak with offensive calcs, otherwise how to compare?
Maybe Im missing something. Wouldnt be the first time![/quote:846f6dad63]
To be honest i'm not sure, but ive had it bookmarked since i found it here. I think the per AB reflects the % chance that a hit or error occurs as a result of the fielders rating on each throw of the dice. perhaps the TB represents the total bases in that percentage, triples v singles, 1 base errors v 2.
If that holds true, the 3 is still better.
Not sure how arm effects play in, but seems better to me to keep guys off the bases.
This also gets back to picking teams in the first place, why pick either of these guys?
Maybe Im missing something. Wouldnt be the first time![/quote:846f6dad63]
To be honest i'm not sure, but ive had it bookmarked since i found it here. I think the per AB reflects the % chance that a hit or error occurs as a result of the fielders rating on each throw of the dice. perhaps the TB represents the total bases in that percentage, triples v singles, 1 base errors v 2.
If that holds true, the 3 is still better.
Not sure how arm effects play in, but seems better to me to keep guys off the bases.
This also gets back to picking teams in the first place, why pick either of these guys?
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by MICHAELTARBELL » Fri May 27, 2011 12:45 pm
[quote:2cda3d5c26="mikemartinfl"][quote:2cda3d5c26="macnole"]Mike Martinfl--I dont think that's per gamel seems very high no?...and the issue is still how to make it a common denominator so to speak with offensive calcs, otherwise how to compare?
Maybe Im missing something. Wouldnt be the first time![/quote:2cda3d5c26]
To be honest i'm not sure, but ive had it bookmarked since i found it here. I think the per AB reflects the % chance that a hit or error occurs as a result of the fielders rating on each throw of the dice. perhaps the TB represents the total bases in that percentage, triples v singles, 1 base errors v 2.
If that holds true, the 3 is still better.
Not sure how arm effects play in, but seems better to me to keep guys off the bases.
This also gets back to picking teams in the first place, why pick either of these guys?[/quote:2cda3d5c26]
I think what this is saying is that if every ball was hit to a particular position, this is how many total bases on average would be given up (like the stat RUNSCREATED/27OUT)
Maybe Im missing something. Wouldnt be the first time![/quote:2cda3d5c26]
To be honest i'm not sure, but ive had it bookmarked since i found it here. I think the per AB reflects the % chance that a hit or error occurs as a result of the fielders rating on each throw of the dice. perhaps the TB represents the total bases in that percentage, triples v singles, 1 base errors v 2.
If that holds true, the 3 is still better.
Not sure how arm effects play in, but seems better to me to keep guys off the bases.
This also gets back to picking teams in the first place, why pick either of these guys?[/quote:2cda3d5c26]
I think what this is saying is that if every ball was hit to a particular position, this is how many total bases on average would be given up (like the stat RUNSCREATED/27OUT)
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by rburgh » Fri May 27, 2011 9:00 pm
The 16.0 vs. 24.2 is TB (via hits) allowed by failure to make a play, per 216 PA for the fielder. i.e. For every 216 PA Guerrero gets, he will allow 18 TB as a fielder on average. But for a lf-4 (or rf-4) the number is 32, not 24.2.
It takes about 48 games for an average middle of the lineup hitter to accumulate 216 PA, so you can safely divide the TB allowed by 48; this means a 3e10 gives up about .375 TB per game via hits (and makes 10/162 = about 0.06 errors per game). The 4e12 allows .667 TB per game and makes about .074 errors per game.
Count me among the 3e10 voters for LF, I would vote the other way for RF because of the relative ease of going from 1st to 3rd on a +1 arm in RF.
It takes about 48 games for an average middle of the lineup hitter to accumulate 216 PA, so you can safely divide the TB allowed by 48; this means a 3e10 gives up about .375 TB per game via hits (and makes 10/162 = about 0.06 errors per game). The 4e12 allows .667 TB per game and makes about .074 errors per game.
Count me among the 3e10 voters for LF, I would vote the other way for RF because of the relative ease of going from 1st to 3rd on a +1 arm in RF.
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by jet40 » Fri Sep 30, 2011 7:58 pm
I just finished playing Stargell 4(-4)e12 fulltime in LF. Team won 105 (80 mil cap) games and the World Series. Talk about going against the grain, I also played 3 Right handed power hitters in Griffith Stadium 11 (1-5, 1-5 and 1-19, 1-5 )
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How about a link?
by BDWard » Fri Sep 30, 2011 11:06 pm
Congrats, jet40. How about posting a link to that team? Thanks. - Bernie W
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