60 Midway-Normalization Kicks In? YES!

[nevdully's]

and 60 at game 81 is on pace for 120...so what's your point?

[nevdully's]

Same stuff written here as way back when it was "proven" HR normalization was on...How come a red hot first half is "never" followed by a red hot second half?

[Mr Baseball World]

That it is not such a ridiculously low pace as to be proof of normalization.

[FRANKMANSUETO]

Bonds finishing with 96HRs. After 60 in 81 games a 74% pace. He cools to 36 in 81 games or a 44% pace. The parks in the division and league favored him. His 2nd half pace shows me his actual pace for the season he had that year when he hit 72HRs. Just my belief that normalization took effect.

[george barnard]

[quote:aee1ab5cda]Same stuff written here as way back when it was "proven" HR normalization was on...How come a red hot first half is "never" followed by a red hot second half? [/quote:aee1ab5cda]

Far be it from me to pick a fight, just call me an open-minded skeptic. I had one notable season from Scott Rolen where his absolutely horrendous first-half was followed by an over-the-top second. Does normalization work in both directions? Just asking, not polemicizing.

Bill

[FRANKMANSUETO]

If you are asking. I say YES.

[honestiago1]

(sigh) normalization...the tendency for dice rolls to even out over time. Oh, capricious randomness conspiring against my ability to post ridiculous numbers in a simulation! FIE! FIE!

[nevdully's]

Funny how the evening out just "happens to work" over the course of a single season....

When someone has an exceptionally good or bad year the number guys are quick to point out how one season, only 650 abs or so, just one lil ole season ain't nearly a big enough sample to measure true numbers....not just one single season......

[size=9:300975c4bc]just one lil bitty sesson[/size:300975c4bc]


[size=7:300975c4bc]one itsy bitsy single season[/size:300975c4bc]


Yet


in their next breath when things "even out "over the second half of this one season, these same people say its a l-o-n-g year.... Long long long, and it's that powerful regression to the mean (very powerful, almost super deluper powerful)


So.... numbers guys is it just one lil season, and not, a true indicator of anything...


OR

is it a [size=18:300975c4bc]l-o-n-g season, with a POWERFUL REGRESSION TO THE MEAN?[/size:300975c4bc]


I'm just asking.

:idea:

[nevdully's]

Remember kids P.E.D.s don't help performance AND they're good for you.


:roll:

[macnole]

[quote:1060ba3abd="nevdully's"]Funny how the evening out just "happens to work" over the course of a single season....

When someone has an exceptionally good or bad year the number guys are quick to point out how one season, only 650 abs or so, just one lil ole season ain't nearly a big enough sample to measure true numbers....not just one single season......

[size=9:1060ba3abd]just one lil bitty sesson[/size:1060ba3abd]


[size=7:1060ba3abd]one itsy bitsy single season[/size:1060ba3abd]


Yet


in their next breath when things "even out "over the second half of this one season, these same people say its a l-o-n-g year.... Long long long, and it's that powerful regression to the mean (very powerful, almost super deluper powerful)


So.... numbers guys is it just one lil season, and not, a true indicator of anything...


OR

is it a [size=18:1060ba3abd]l-o-n-g season, with a POWERFUL REGRESSION TO THE MEAN?[/size:1060ba3abd]


I'm just asking.

:idea:[/quote:1060ba3abd] :roll: oh the humanity of the conspiracy...