Normalization exposed

[rburgh]

sschu just posted something on one of my league message boards that made it obvious to me that "normalization" is not, and cannot, occur in a league like this.

He made an interesting point, which led me to ask myself the following question.

"Why, if normalization is occurring, do hitters approach or exceed their counting batting stats (HR, RBI, H, SB, etc.) but pitchers not approach theirs (ER, H, BB allowed)?"

Can any of you conspiracy theorists answer this one? Huh?

[bkeat23]

HAL doesn't dig the long ball.

[Mr Baseball World]

Are you talking about pitchers giving up a whole bunch of runs or pitchers giving up very few?

[rburgh]

Very few, obviously. If there was such a thing as normalization, then Maddux and Pedro would be unhittable after about their 10th start.

[1787]

In a sixty mil league Pedro is pretty unhitable.in a 80 mil leaague he approches his carded season. Once you get into the 100m,140m,and 200m leagues the lineups make him only good but they make pitchers like J Morris horrable. Its all about the money.

[rburgh]

Exactly the point I have been trying to make with the normalization conspiracy theorists. Thank you for your support.

[nevdully's]

[quote:a900f54927="rburgh"]Exactly the point I have been trying to make with the [b:a900f54927]normalization conspiracy theorists[/b:a900f54927]. Thank you for your support.[/quote:a900f54927]

Why is that what we're labeled?

We "know" there is stuff going on beyond dice rolls and max rules. Even if we're mistaken about normalization or momentum etc...why the need to paint us with that inaccurate brush?

If we've ever been proven correct in this type of situation (we have been) what would you label us then? What would you then label yourself?

My mind is open...I've been right before...and wrong.....Some of you trumpet how wrong "the conspiracy theorists are" until we're right....then you stay quiet until the next situation comes up and instead of keeping an open mind some of you go right back to being close minded and again labeling us "conspiracy theorists"



:roll:

[TRW]

[quote:9931c73432="1787"]In a sixty mil league Pedro is pretty unhitable.in a 80 mil leaague he approches his carded season. Once you get into the 100m,140m,and 200m leagues the lineups make him only good but they make pitchers like J Morris horrable. Its all about the money.[/quote:9931c73432]


No Doubt. In real baseball on any given team & in any given season, you maybe have on average a couple of guys on a team who have an all-star type season. In ATG, this is skewed, since most owners load their teams from slots 1 to 9 with the best offensive players having the best season of their life. And add the extreme stadiums everyone uses, pitchers have almost no chance to approach the numbers on their cards.

[sschu]

Here is what I posted:

If there is some sort of code that attempts
to “normalize” the stats of ATG, especially in
these high cap leagues where it is HOFer vs
HOFer, it would seem this is some sort of
fool’s errand. SOM by design is season
specific, the attempt is to recreate the stats
for given players in a given season. ATG is
very different.

So if the SOM game engine includes code to
try and match stats to the season, it will by
definition be unsuccessful as there is no
actuals that make sense, Ruth never faced
Koufax.

IMHO, as it seems they are attempting to
do this, and they certainly are smart enough
to see what we see, then the reason for
these statistical adjustment techniques
employed is not clear. It probably comes
down to the difficulty of “turning off” these
“features”, hence the answer is just live with
it.

So for me it comes down to the fun of doing
a live draft, because any expectation of
looking at W/L and stats for validation is
long gone.

FWIIW, sschu

***

For those that play the "seasons" version of SOM, how accurate are the stats? I have only ever played ATG online.

I am of the opinion that there is some sort of “statistical adjustment” made by the SOM game engine, but since this is focused on meeting some target for seasonal accuracy for players/cards, it makes no sense for ATG, especially in high cap leagues. I would propose just turning these things “off”, but I surmise it is difficult to do so.

It used to bother me, all sorts of conspiracies crossed my mind. In the end I decided to just have some fun.

sschu

[macnole]

good post sschu. If you play within AB/inning limits, it's pretty damn close. I only did it for two seasons with the board game the old fashioned way--I havent done the cd rom cause Im a mac guy and will not run windows code on my well oiled machine, even the 10 year old one.

I'm sure others can chime in--a lot easier to play a season now on the pc game.