Yes, version 2.0 of the game no longer had that issue. I think he was afraid he would lose credibility in the gaming community. That was about the time when other games were starting up and he decided to go straight.
His model is still more accurate than others, within individual seasons, but as we see here it does not translate well to all-star rosters across multiple eras.
Still, the game is reasonably transparent, and once you accept the idea that a 4.50 ERA is a good season in a live draft or $200 million league, not so bad.
HAL could be better, and all the other complaints, but other games have their issues as well.
Normalization exposed
27 posts
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by Mr Baseball World » Mon Oct 10, 2011 10:38 pm
It was my understanding that the normalization theorists are thinking that there is something in the online game that may very well not be in the computer game.
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by Valen » Mon Oct 10, 2011 11:06 pm
[quote:0aebb6a36c]its amazing how close the results match up at seasons end[/quote:0aebb6a36c]
Not disputing that it can approximate the average or even good performances. I could probably sim CJ 100 times and get very reasonably close to all his stats.
It is the extremes it cannot reproduce such as Cliff Lee's amazing control in 2010 or most any historic great pitching performance. I could sim Lee 100 times and will always end up with double or triple his real numbers. That is because there is a built-in minimum of walks and HRs, etc that a pitcher will always give up from the hitters cards. AND IT DOES NOT REQUIRE ALLSTAR OPPONENTS. If you noted from my experiment with Lee and Gibson both were against their same season opponents, not ATG allstars.
With hitters it is opposite. Pathetically poor offense also cannot be reproduced. If a hitter came up 500 times and struck out 500 times Strat could not reproduce his .000 BA. But we would not care because nobody would use him anyway. We will of course use the historically great pitchers. Thus it is that pitching by the very nature of strat gets shortchanged. We desparately need pitching clutch as an option.
Not disputing that it can approximate the average or even good performances. I could probably sim CJ 100 times and get very reasonably close to all his stats.
It is the extremes it cannot reproduce such as Cliff Lee's amazing control in 2010 or most any historic great pitching performance. I could sim Lee 100 times and will always end up with double or triple his real numbers. That is because there is a built-in minimum of walks and HRs, etc that a pitcher will always give up from the hitters cards. AND IT DOES NOT REQUIRE ALLSTAR OPPONENTS. If you noted from my experiment with Lee and Gibson both were against their same season opponents, not ATG allstars.
With hitters it is opposite. Pathetically poor offense also cannot be reproduced. If a hitter came up 500 times and struck out 500 times Strat could not reproduce his .000 BA. But we would not care because nobody would use him anyway. We will of course use the historically great pitchers. Thus it is that pitching by the very nature of strat gets shortchanged. We desparately need pitching clutch as an option.
Last edited by Valen on Mon Oct 10, 2011 11:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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by Valen » Mon Oct 10, 2011 11:09 pm
[quote:6892ad30f5]It was my understanding that the normalization theorists are thinking that there is something in the online game that may very well not be in the computer game.[/quote:6892ad30f5]I would be shocked to find this is the case. The power zapping code found a couple years back was a cdrom game "feature" that carried over to the online game. Once proven to exist it was turned off. If indeed there is some other normalization going on you can bet it is in the cdrom game first. I would be massively shocked to find they added code to the cdrom game to mess it up. That would just be extra work and expense with nothing to gain. No business, even one as brain dead as strato is sometimes follows that business plan.
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by Mr Baseball World » Mon Oct 10, 2011 11:20 pm
When they redid the bullpen logic wasn't it something that is here but not in the cd-rom game? Certainly Bernie and his testers here were not tinkering with the cdrom game.
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by Valen » Tue Oct 11, 2011 12:02 am
[quote:77c7f230cf]I had the original issue computer game. Some brave soul observed that the player stats were coming amazingly close to the real-life numbers, so he took it upon himself to do a little experiment. He took a scrub from that season, made no changes to the play results on his card with the card editor, but juiced up his stat line. [/quote:77c7f230cf]
This gave me the idea of trying to duplicate normalization. Logic can go if you cannot prove something is true do everything to prove it is true. Then you at least have some reason to stand by your original hypothesis.
I took Josh Hamilton and simmed a season. Results:
Then I altered his stated real life stats and the Rangers real life team stats. If normalization is kicking in we should see it in the second simulation.
BEFORE Avg AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB K Slug OPS
J.Hamilton .364 580 211 49 0 31 85 65 14 99 .432 .609 1.041
After Avg AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB K OBP Slug OpS
J.Hamilton 367 581 213 47 4 35 135 41 3 90 .410 .642 1.052
before
Rangers: WON LOST PCT
OVERALL RECORD 90 72 .556
ROAD RECORD 44 37 .543
VS. LEFTY STARTERS 25 24 .510
VS. RIGHTY STARTERS 65 48 .575
ONE RUN GAMES 18 31 .367
LAST 10 GAMES 5 5 .500 TOTAL RUNS 794 645
AVERAGE RUNS 4.90 3.98
----------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER
----------------------------------------------------------------------
x
This gave me the idea of trying to duplicate normalization. Logic can go if you cannot prove something is true do everything to prove it is true. Then you at least have some reason to stand by your original hypothesis.
I took Josh Hamilton and simmed a season. Results:
Then I altered his stated real life stats and the Rangers real life team stats. If normalization is kicking in we should see it in the second simulation.
BEFORE Avg AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB K Slug OPS
J.Hamilton .364 580 211 49 0 31 85 65 14 99 .432 .609 1.041
After Avg AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB K OBP Slug OpS
J.Hamilton 367 581 213 47 4 35 135 41 3 90 .410 .642 1.052
before
Rangers: WON LOST PCT
OVERALL RECORD 90 72 .556
ROAD RECORD 44 37 .543
VS. LEFTY STARTERS 25 24 .510
VS. RIGHTY STARTERS 65 48 .575
ONE RUN GAMES 18 31 .367
LAST 10 GAMES 5 5 .500 TOTAL RUNS 794 645
AVERAGE RUNS 4.90 3.98
----------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER
----------------------------------------------------------------------
x
- Valen
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- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
27 posts
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