Proof this game hates me

[danielz]

I have never used Frank Thomas. Saw him put up great numbers, so I figured I'd give him a shot.

Through 45 games
only 87 of 198 dice rolls on his card

1-4 is a HR; 18 rolls of 4, none of them are HRs
1-6 is a HR or HR/DO; 28 rolls of 6, only 2 extra base hits
1-9 is #HR; 26 rolls of 9, only 2 HR chances
1-10 is #HR; 18 rolls of 10, only 2 HR chances
3-11 is >SINGLE; 15 rolls of 11, zero single chances

Normalization can start anytime now

[Salty]

Am I in that league-
b/c I gave my Pitchers specific instructions not to roll the dice on the hitters card. :shock:

[rburgh]

In pretty much any league, you're going to have two hitters and 1 SP who "underperform" and two and one who "overperform." Just be careful to get your baseline from the DD actuals for your cap (and park, if available) and not from the real life stats of the player.

Nev PM'ed me a couple of weeks ago about Heavy Johnson hitting .179 in Hilltop after 60-something games. Then I pointed out to him that Mantle was hitting better than his average line in Fulton, and David Wright was hitting better than his real life numbers.

[artie4121]

Was this before Wright was beaned by Matt Cain? :|

[Valen]

Very insightful rburgh about the over and under performers. I may pin these comments up on my monitor to remind me not to panic about my under guys.

[danielz]

I see, so instead of complaining about Frank, I should complain about David Wright and his .191 average

By the way, actuals call for Frank to hit 54 HRs
He is on pace to hit 27

[MtheB]

its real life randomness.
happens with odds all the time.

i had one team, that at the half way point, was 12 games back. It was the right team for the park I was in, but all the key players were way under performing, I couldnt understand it.
I was very tempted just to gut the team and expirement. I didn't.
The players began to wake up, and then started putting up huge numbers.
I caught the first place team in the last few games of the season, and won the whole thing.

probability is random.
and it will normalize at some juncture.

One of my favorite strat memories is six of us drafted players from 10 randomly picking teams from the 78 season (this was of course in the days of the board game)

during the season we were playing, I was playing against my friend Doug, and we both had our #4 pitchers going for us, he had Buddy Solomon (Braves pitcher with a very high ERA), and I had Rasmussen pitching.
I had a fairly potent lineup---Davey Lopes, Bill North, G. Luzinski, R. Monday, G. Tenace, Mike Schmidt---and Buddy Solomon pitched a no-hitter against my team.
Now if you look at Buddy Solomon's card, you would say no way.
But it gets better.
Rasmussen was not quite as effective that day, but after 9 innings, he had given up 7 hits, but no runs.
We go to extra innings. Doug decides to leave Solomon in.
After 10 innings, it was tied 0-0, the no hitter still alive.
Same after 11 innings.

In the 12th, Rick Monday hit a walkoff HR to break up the no-hitter win it for me.

so what are the odds of Buddy Solomon's 78 card pitching a no-hitter?
For 11&1/3 innings?

Performances and stats in strats always fascinate me, and continue to surprise. just like real life.
sometimes we forget just how incredible it was that the 69 Mets went from worst to first in one season, and beat the heavily favored Orioles.