by mykeedee » Sat Oct 22, 2011 3:35 pm
From the Rules:
[i:fdf3ddc9c8](23.3) Stealing Second Base Edit
A. Combine the catcher's arm (which will range from -4 to +5) and the pitcher's hold rating (which will range from -6 to +9). This sum may not exceed the range of -5 to +5.
Example: Catcher's arm is -1, pitcher's hold is -5. Instead of a combined -6, the adjustment is -5.
Adjust the runner's success ratings accordingly. Example: Instead of (19-14) above, this runner is now 14-9 after a -5 catcher/pitcher adjustment.
B. The defensive manager decides whether to hold the runner on base. If so, there is further adjustment: -2 from the first steal success rating and -4 from the second steal success rating.
Example: Instead of 14-9, this runner is now 12-5.
Note that the effect of holding the runner is applied after calculating the catcher/pitcher adjustment, so the total effect can exceed -5.
C. The offensive manager decides whether to attempt a steal. If so, then first check to determine if the runner achieves his good lead.
1. If the runner has an asterisk (*) rating and the runner is not being held on base, then the runner automatically has his good lead.
2. If the runner does not have an asterisk (*) or he has an asterisk and is being held on base, then roll the two colored dice and check the runner's number range(s). If the roll falls within the range of the first set of numbers, the runner achieves his good lead. If the roll falls within the range of the second set of numbers, the runner is automatically out stealing. If the roll does not fall within either range, the runner has failed to achieve his good lead.
D. If the runner rolls for his good lead and achieves it, he must steal immediately. If the runner fails to achieve a good lead, he has the option of stealing at any time, or of holding his base. [/i:fdf3ddc9c8]
I know that not all players have the automatic lead, I'm just sayin' that most guys who steal 21 bases in 550 PA's have an *. Also he's rated 4/- (18-13), the 13 being his rating when not being held and not gaining a successful lead, so unless he's running against a 0 (pitchers hold + catchers arm) his success will be less than 65%. Somebody else will have to do the math for me, but his chance of gaining a successful lead is really weak, even less than Pujols (who by the way has an *) and he stole only 16 bases in both '05 and '09 in 680+ PA's. I think it's an error...my 2 cents.