Question: Back to Back injury chances...

[Salty]

Im just curious what the chances are when a player has an injury on a 1-12 what the chances of them getting injured the game they return is?

The reason Im mentioning this is because I've noted that this tends to happen with guys who have less at bats-
my recollection of the rule was that guys would have a higher chance of being injured for more games; not that they had a higher chance of being injured if the roll was still on the end of their card.
:?: :?: i.e 1-12, 2-12 etc.
Anyone got any input?

[rburgh]

I have no reason to believe that the dice rolls in the game are anything but honest. I think we just notice when a guy gets hurt in his first game back. I had that happen to a 600+ PA guy a couple of nights ago.

Assuming a guy gets 4 plate appearances a game, there is a 1 in 54 chance he gets hurt in his first game back. Since, assuming you have a C with 2 injury chances and 8 other guys with 1 injury chance, you will see about 30 injuries to hitters a year, that means that at least every other season you will see this happen.

Again, this may well be a perception thing. You have a key guy in your lineup who gets injured in his first game back, and you notice it. Do you also notice when he gets hurt in his 2nd game back, etc.? I doubt it.

[Proverbial Psalms]

It is more likely than what I'd have expected...

Approximately 2.3% chance (with 5 times up in the returning game)... that a player returning from injury would roll the 1-12 injury roll again... this equates to about 1 in every 44 injuries that would result in another injury attempt in the first game back.

The odds of an injury itself, i.e. getting passed any stays-in-game outcome once the injury roll comes up would be a bit smaller, but the 1 in every 44 injuries surprised me :roll:

[1787]

I have noticed some strange "coincidences" with injuries through the years.On many occasions if one of my players is injured in one league he some how winds up injured in another. Another strange occurence is if I replace an injured player with a free agent,the free agent pick-up gets injured that night. That happens so often that I will ride out 15 game injuries as opposed to taking a chance on someone new. Also does anyone else have trouble keeping F.Alou in the lineup,this guy always finds the injury chart [and he is a 1 injury]. Has anybody else noticed this or am I just crazy.
Bill

[Proverbial Psalms]

[quote:d08839d43e="1787"]On many occasions if one of my players is injured in one league he some how winds up injured in another[/quote:d08839d43e]
If you have the same player on just 1 other team, it is 6.3% that the player in that second league gets the injury roll, or 1 in every 16 injuries to players you have on 2 different teams.

Comments: The given is that first player is injured, and then you compute the odds that the injury roll comes up for the player in the second league, which is over 3 games (typically) which is why it is as high as 6.3% for a player with injury on 2/12 (assuming 14 PA's in the 3 game series)

Odds increase further, essentially doubling to 12% for either (a) players with 3/11 injury rolls or (b) situations where a manager has the same player on total of 3 different teams. That means in 1 out of 8 situations the same player would be injured on multiple teams on the same night GIVEN the player is injured in one of the leagues to begin with.

Here's a reasonable scenario... If one of the most-playing managers (those with 20+ active teams) has a normal injury risk guy (i.e. roll on 2/12) and the manager has the player on 7 different teams the probability that a player injured in one league gets injured in at least one other league is roughly 37%... so it quickly becomes a very likely scenario for the "favorite players" of frequently playing managers.

[Salty]

well, sometimes very hard to separate perspective from 'odd' events.

Always good to know the 'odds' I suppose, so thanks for the input.

[1787]

Can I take you to Belmont racetrack with me, and does this mean there is no GOD?