Teams with 1b and/or DH starters expected for 2012 due to contract situations and speculation.
AL-- 1b, DH
Balt--1b open (unless you count C. Davis), Scott arb-elg. (Guerrero FA)
Bos--Gonzalez, Youkilis (Ortiz FA)
NYY--Teixiera, Jesus Montero/ARod
TB--both open (Kotchman, Damon are FA)
Tor--1b open, Lind
Cle--LaPorta, Hafner
ChW--Konerko, Dunn
Det--Cabrera, VMart
KC--Hosmer, Butler
Minn--Morneau, Mauer?/Kubel
LAA--Trumbo, Morales
Oak--Barton, open
Sea--Smoak, open
Tex--Moreland/Young, Young/Napoli
NL--no DH, only 1b
Atl--Freeman
Fla--Sanchez/Morrison
NYM--I. Davis
Phi--Howard
Was--LaRoche
ChC--open
Cin--Votto
Hou--Wallace
Mil--open
Pitt--Lee
StL--open
Ari--Goldschmidt
Col--Helton
LAD--Loney
SD--Rizzo
SF--Belt
Certainly some of the young players on teams (e.g., SF, Hou) could become trade bait if the team decides to chase Pujols or Fielder. They might be more likely than a team that has high money locked in (e.g., ChW).
However, by looking at the teams, considering their cap issues and trends, the following teams would be the most likely:
[b:b872b0e743]Baltimore[/b:b872b0e743]--$14m come off the books with Vlad and Mike Gonzalez gone, and I'm sure they don't count Davis at 1b. However, they also have pay hikes coming to arbitration-eligible players: Wieters, Jones, Guthrie, Andino, and Scott, that could make a big money player hard to do. Plus, they really need pitching, more so than hitting.
[b:b872b0e743]Toronto[/b:b872b0e743]--They have money coming off the books too, but arbitration may eat most or more of that with Rasmus, Cecil, Litsch, and Morrow elgible. It may partially depend on what they do at 2b. If they exercise the 500k option with Encarnacion and put Lawrie at 2b, then they could be a player for someone. But they might stick with Lawrie at 3b and then 2b is wide open and a big need. However, if they went for Pujols or Fielder, they would become big threats in the AL East.
[b:b872b0e743]Seattle[/b:b872b0e743]--It depends on the self-imposed cap as Felix gets $7.5m more in 2012 than in 2011. The club must also plan for Ichiro, whose contract is up after 2012. Is Ichiro heading toward DH-dom? Do they want Ichiro to retire a Mariner? Is Smoak definitely in their plans? And despite all of that, if Seattle is still considering trading the King partially due to his contract, then I don't see them going hard for Pujols.
[b:b872b0e743]Cubs[/b:b872b0e743]--Despite the Soriano and Big Z contracts, they have some room to make a move. Guys like DeWitt and Baker can play 3b if Ramirez hits FA (which is expected, the $2m 2012 option is mutual). So ARam and Pena, which totalled $24m in 2011, for Pujols seems like a fair swap financially.
[b:b872b0e743]Houston[/b:b872b0e743]--They have only one more $19m year of Carlos Lee, so they could allow for a single-season payroll hike, IF they are ready to give up on Wallace at 1b. But this would be more like a Band-Aid on a compound fracture.
[b:b872b0e743]Milwaukee[/b:b872b0e743]--It's a tough spot for the Brew Crew. They have $56m tied up in Grienke, Wolf, Braun, Weeks, Hart, and Gallardo (up $12m from 2011). And Marcum, Magahee, and Morgan are arb-eligible, which means a payroll increase of probably $5-8m for those three, assuming the club tenders.
[b:b872b0e743]St. Louis[/b:b872b0e743]--I think they are the favorite for Pujols, but they will have to pay big to do it. And they will hesitate with Berkman able to play 1b and Allen Craig looking ready to be the everyday rf.
[b:b872b0e743]Washington[/b:b872b0e743]--LaRoche is under contract for one more year at $8m, which was a bit high when it happened. He's also coming off an injury and a sub-.200 bavg. The Nats would consider the big splash regardless, I think. LaRoche is not the one in the way. The possible roadblock is Werth's contract. Starting in 2013, Werth gets $20m per. Will the Nats tie their wagons to two players making a combined $40m+?
[b:b872b0e743]Tampa Bay and Oakland[/b:b872b0e743]--I dismiss both teams because they won't spend the money. Tampa has made the playoffs 3 straight years with payrolls that combined will be less than Pujols' next contract.
[b:b872b0e743]Dodgers[/b:b872b0e743]--They would dump Loney and chase Pujols or Fielder in a heartbeat if the ownership issue was not handcuffing them.
[b:b872b0e743]Mets [/b:b872b0e743]already have $60m locked into three guys (Santana, Bay, Wright) and may not pursue re-signing Reyes, who would be better in the long run for them since they have Davis at 1b.
Overall, I think the likely landing spots for Pujols and Fielder are, in order:
Chicago Cubs
St. Louis
Washington
Toronto
Milwaukee