NLD Twenty-Nine!

[superflymacdaddyjuice]

Joe,

I see what you are doing. I am afraid "Suck for Luck" is only available for NFL franchises.
:lol:

[Jeepdriver]

Another solid night for the Accents:

1) Sweep of Big's 2nd best record in the lg team

2) Two more 1-run squeakers

3) Solid Pitching - Allowed only 5 runs/16 hits in the series

4) Timely hitting - scored 4 runs on 6 hits and 3 runs on 4 hits in two of the games

5) Sanchez goes to 12-7, Price to 18-8 in a 3-hit CG beauty.

6) Bell gets two saves to run his lg leading total to 35.

:)

[qksilver69]

3 more 1-run losses for me... :?

[joethejet]

I hear ya Silver.

My bad luck continues. We beat Jeep in game one. A minor miracle given that we:
1. won by a run
2. got a save from Wilson
3. stopped a 9th inning rally with the bases loaded

Alas, we returned to form in games 2 and 3.

Game 2 we lost in extras (again) in the 14th, Downs, pitching (F0) finally gives up some runs. As 4 sub 1.0 pitchers shut us out for 4 innings. :shock: Not only do they shut us out, but they only allow 2 hits. We left a runner at 3rd with less than 2 outs in the 13th. <sigh>

Game 3 we're up 7-4 going to the 8th . We give up 2, but are hanging on 7-6, but it's not to be as Tejeda, pitching tired gives up 5 runs thanks to a 1-2 single on a 2bx and a 2 base error off of Werth (e4)

So, to summarize, in our last 16 losses, 14 have come by one run, in extras or in the other teams last AB.

No bad luck there, just a lousy team. We've had 46 save situations have have blown 20 of them. Wish I'd have known that Heath Bell would be WAY better than Wilson during the draft. :roll:

On the plus side, Pujols, Werth and Hunter had good series at the plate.

Jet

[JAMESZIMMER]

Well Joe, given that in a previous post you said you were my "daddy" you should have an easy team tonight. Thanks for the rankings and send money.

[keyzick]

[quote:8ac032b726="qksilver"]3 more 1-run losses for me... :?[/quote:8ac032b726]

Yeah, that sweep's courtesy of my squad. I don't really know how my team continues to hang in the wildcard race. I think it has to do with my top two draft picks - Smoke & Mirrors

[Jeepdriver]

[quote:8bd0f978a9]Wish I'd have known that Heath Bell would be WAY better than Wilson during the draft[/quote:8bd0f978a9]

Joe you've mentioned here something that I've said many times over the past years. I play far more teams than you do. Time and time again I've seen Wilson stink up the joint. Time and time again I see Bell perform beautifully. Sometimes it's not about the ratings. I draft a team based on prior performances, not necessarily who "looks better" in the ratings.

I'd rather have A. Sanchez and E. Santana over many of their higher priced counterparts. Let's you sqeeze out AMAP on hitting. A good squad is all about the right balance and mix. Those under 1 mil RP's I have are doing a great job in the role they're put in.

Does all that make sense?

[bigmahon]

Jeep, this is what I've been trying to tell Joe for awhile now. For example, he has made several comments about Clayton Richard, expressing surprise that he continues to do well. My guess is he doesn't rate well. But he remains one of my favorite players in the set, and for $1.07 NEVER fails to deliver exceptional value for money. Put him in Miller and he will outperform other pitchers priced considerably higher. I've yet to have a bad season from him.

Some of the great managers in this game don't use a ratings system, but run endless sims when the cards come out to determine which players tend to perform well in certain circumstances. I know cristano/weinberg is one such manager. And like him or not, he's better than most. 8-)

[Detroit-Tigers]

[quote:f6e65e7007="bigmahon"]Jeep, this is what I've been trying to tell Joe for awhile now. For example, he has made several comments about Clayton Richard, expressing surprise that he continues to do well. My guess is he doesn't rate well. But he remains one of my favorite players in the set, and for $1.07 NEVER fails to deliver exceptional value for money. Put him in Miller and he will outperform other pitchers priced considerably higher. I've yet to have a bad season from him.

Some of the great managers in this game don't use a ratings system, but run endless sims when the cards come out to determine which players tend to perform well in certain circumstances. I know cristano/weinberg is one such manager. And like him or not, he's better than most. 8-)[/quote:f6e65e7007]

I wouldn't say never...

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/team/team_other.html?user_id=349380

[joethejet]

Zim,

Well, I'm quite sure that I jinxed myself. You're just one of the few teams that we have more wins than losses against.

Smokey,

I think it's more suck for Pujols (or whoever is the first pick next year)

Jeep,

You're right that you play in way more leagues. I *have* to use ratings because I don't spend the time to gather the information otherwise. However, Wilson, by any measure is a better pitcher than Bell. He's got lower OB, aver and TBs both ways. He's also a 2 inning guy who will give you more IP. Now, if you were playing in Petco and I was in GAP, you could expect to get better numbers out of bell than Wilson. Otherwise, statistically, it's just not that close. Well it's close v LHB.

I had Anibal in the first two NLDs. He pitched great in one (like he's doing for you) and 5+ ERA in the second one.

Santana's ERA has gone up to more to where you would expect in GAP. Cheap RPs can do well when they're spotted against their good hand. It's true. In our last game, that wasn't the case. We just didn't get the right rolls. They really aren't very good, that's why they're < 1mil. Well, they can be good v one side. Like Braddock. Ray and Thomas are mediocre even against their strong side. Three of the pitchers were used well. Janssen OTOH, was lights out even facing LHB. And, he's not *that* good v RHB. Decent, but he's been giving it up at > .300 BA so far.

I was commenting on the number of IPs you got out of those guys. Not the "spot" usage in which they can be effective. I get that role. And the ratings will under estimate that usage for sure. However that wasn't the case for Janssen, but it was for the other three.

Big M,

Richard is very poor v RHB. Period. Yeah, he's better in your park it's true. But, even in Miller he has a > 320 OB v RHB, 247 BA and 380 slugging. In my park he's even worse. He's faced either 8 or 9 RHB when I've faced him. The stats just don't support a great outing from him against my squad on a consistent basis. If he's facing 3-4 LHBs? Yeah, he's going to be good. In the last game, Thornton bailed him out. Thornton is very good of course. We had to get to him before that. The other game, in our park, he shut us out, stranding 9. I think there's a bit of luck for a guy with > 340 OB and > 400 slugging in my park v 8 RHB's to throw a shutout. The stats don't support your contention. For example, Zito has allowed .389 of RHBs to reach. Richard, despite 100 points higher OB has only allowed .345. Should that be expected? Some of of that is BPSIs in your park (but not the road) and your D does help your pitching quite a bit. Luck or expected? Not to say that Richard is a good value in your park, just that throwing shutouts in AT&T v 8 RHB shouldn't be expected all that often. But, in 162 games it *is* going to happen I know.

What can I say? you're in first, I'm in last so I must be doing somehting wrong.

For a few years we ran a lot of sims, and largely what they showed was a great bit of variability in which team would win and which would lose. Yeah, there would usually be a couple of teams that were mostly towards the top or bottom, but with a league like the NLD, the middle was muddled.

So, even if you don't use ratings, just looking at the pure numbers, I think there are some surprises going on. Maybe we're not a playoff team, but I really don't think this team should be completely stinking it up. Do you?

Maybe I'm wrong and this team is fundamentally flawed. For example, even though we have slightly better offensive numbers v LHP, we have a terrible record. Perhaps the teams with LHSP have better offenses.

We've lost 11 games in extras, maybe it's a team that's just not suited to winning extras.

I guess I should expect Pujols, Werth and Hunter to all be at 244 or below and Albert to hit .224 v RHP. For almost 11 mil I expect more.

We have five guys doing about what they should v RHP, Zaun, Langer, Uggla, Alvarez, maybe Blanco. Janish is above. But the three guys with, supposedly the best numbers have just sucked. Expected? Maybe if you ran 100 sims you'd see that in a park that favors RHBs, the best RHBs would stink v RHP.

Our SPs have come back to about normal now. Verlander should be a little bit better, but not so bad as before. They're all about a run over their actual ERA. Probably expected. The Pen? not so much as documented. Even Masset who has a good ERA has a .324 BA v RHB. He should walk some guys, sure, but that many hits? Maybe not so much.

So, looking at it, I have five players that are way off. Is that enough to make me this bad? Maybe so. Maybe even if there were closer to expected (or at least 2-3 of them were) we'd still be a .500 team. That's probably the top end with everything going well.
Jet